Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 190950
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
350 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A back door cold front will slide down the plains later this
evening  increasing the potential for thunderstorms and heavy
rain. The front will push westward through the gaps of the central
mountain chain early Saturday morning, with some breezy gap winds
likely in the Rio Grande Valley. Focus for storm coverage will
shift back to central and western New Mexico on Saturday. Sunday
and Monday may be the most active days of the upcoming week with
numerous storms, locally heavy rain, and perhaps some small hail
as well. A downtrend in storm coverage may be in store mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Large-scale pattern characterized by persistent broad troughiness
over the Intermounain Region past couple of days undergoing some
important changes today as a significant shortwave trough drops
southeast and emerges from the northern/central Rockies.

Remnant 300mb shear axis extending from NC New Mexico southwestward
into WC Arizona this morning to gradually weaken as it slowly
translates eastward. To its south/southeast, 50+kt upper jet
arcing from near NM Bootheel to east-central NM/TX Panhandle.
Embedded speed maxima helped to enhance a few strong thunderstorms
across parts of the east earlier this morning and still some
showers persisting from NE to SC areas. Meanwhile, water vapor
imagery showing a couple of cyclonic spinners in the neighborhood --
one appears to be centered just southwest of Gallup with yet
another farther west. Flow in the 700-300mb layer should veer more
W-NW as the day progresses in response to the northern Rockies
wave and these circulation centers may tend to drift more toward
the east- southeast with time. Past model runs indicated fairly
decent air mass drying into NC/NW New Mexico for today but 00z
runs not as dry. Thus, looking at another active crop of SHRA/TSRa
but favored areas will be shifted farther east as compared to
yesterday. Steering flow looks a bit more favorable for the ABQ-
SAF-Socorro corridor.

After today,  we focus on a strong cold front that will plunge south
in wake of the Rockies shortwave. Pre-frontal wind shift looks to
arrive across the northeast this morning before the main frontal
boundary plows into the far northeast near or just before 03Z
Saturday.  This is several hours faster than previous runs and the
earlier arrival seems plausible.  This earlier arrival will allow
for solid low level upslope conditions to develop along/east of the
central mountain chain by daybreak Saturday.  Relatively cool/stable
profiles in the east will limit if not zero out TSRA potential on
Saturday with the focus across the far southeast in closer
proximityto the frontal zone, and then areas mainly between the
Divide and east slopes of the central mountain chain.  Very weak
steering winds from NW to SE will make for an interesting vertical
wind profile that could support a few strong updrafts west of the
RGV but appears that PM instability will not be particularly strong.
This time of year, it`s often the day after frontal passage when the
most active convection develops and that would be Sunday.  If the
ECMWF more correct, showing a stronger easterly push toward the
AZ/NM line, best storms Sunday may remain out closer to the Divide.
Either way,  Sunday looks to be quite active and the "wetter" day
ofthe weekend. Concern for flash flood threat vicinity of the Divide
into the lower RGV, Lincoln and SW Chaves County where deepest
moisture and weakest steering flow to coexist.  Models also hint at
subtle shortwave feature lifting northeast on Sunday.

Pattern to remain active going into the work week, and again the
ECMWF definitely wetter from southwest through northeast as a baggy
remnant low over SoCal slowly heads our direction.  GFS/ECMWF
reasonably close bringing the baggy low/trough over the area
later Tuesday into Wednesday. But the ECMWF dries out
central/northern NM much more than the GFS after Monday. So plenty
of uncertainty on QPF but pattern looks to remain favorable
through extended. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A remnant upper trough axis stretching from southwest to northeast
over NM will become the focus for more convection today. Some drier
air mixing into the mid and upper levels over the Four Corners will
change the storm mode to a mix of wet and dry with gusty outflows.
Meanwhile, a pre-frontal wind shift sagging south into northeast NM
will help focus storms with much larger wetting footprints from the
Sangre de Cristos onto the eastern plains. Storm motions today will
be generally west to east. Max temps will trend cooler over the east
and warmer over the northwest.

All eyes focus to a strong back door cold front shifting southwest
across the plains tonight and through gaps in the central valley by
Saturday morning. Max temperatures will trend 5 to 15F below normal
across central and eastern NM behind the front with significantly
higher humidity. The convective focus will shift into central and
western NM Saturday with very weak steering flow and increasing
potential for locally heavy rainfall. The east appears more stable
as indicated by poor/fair ventilation and low haines. Sunday and
Monday will see widespread activity with locally heavy rainfall,
including the high plains. Temps will remain below normal. Some
drying is noted over the Four Corners region again both days which
may allow for wet/dry type storms.

A sheared trough axis then attempts to slide east toward NM Tuesday
and through the area Wednesday. This will trend humidities down and
allow for increasing westerly flow for at least western NM. Models
have been inconsistent with the overall strength and depth of the
dry air on westerly flow so not much confidence yet on the pattern.
Nonetheless, it does appear ventilation will improve and haines will
trend higher. Max temps also appear to warm back toward normal with
larger diurnal temperature swings. Yet another back door front is
shown for late next week which may moisten up the entire area again
through next weekend.  Guyer

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Main convective activity including SH/TS will affect eastern areas
through 8z-10z. Wind will be the main impact although TS and brief
heavy rain is a possibility at TCC. Shortwave will be found
directly over the forecast area Fri aft/eve. This means an
increase in SH/TS coverage...especially allow TS to start a tad
earlier. Central and eastern terminal sites will be favored. Went
bullish at LVS and TCC due to back door cold front considerations.
VCTS also likely at ABQ/AEG and SAF mid aft to early eve. 50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  87  58  87  57 /  10   5  10   5
Dulce...........................  80  45  78  45 /  30  20  20  20
Cuba............................  78  49  74  49 /  40  30  40  40
Gallup..........................  83  51  82  51 /  30  20  20  20
El Morro........................  77  50  76  51 /  40  30  40  40
Grants..........................  81  51  78  51 /  30  20  40  30
Quemado.........................  79  54  78  53 /  30  30  40  50
Glenwood........................  87  63  85  61 /  20  20  40  30
Chama...........................  74  44  71  44 /  60  40  30  40
Los Alamos......................  77  55  74  55 /  50  40  50  40
Pecos...........................  77  51  69  50 /  30  50  50  40
Cerro/Questa....................  73  51  70  49 /  50  50  30  40
Red River.......................  64  44  62  44 /  70  70  60  50
Angel Fire......................  69  39  65  40 /  60  60  60  40
Taos............................  77  49  72  48 /  40  40  30  30
Mora............................  73  50  66  49 /  60  60  60  40
Espanola........................  82  57  78  54 /  20  30  30  30
Santa Fe........................  78  55  72  53 /  20  40  40  40
Santa Fe Airport................  82  54  76  53 /  20  30  30  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  85  62  80  60 /  20  20  40  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  87  63  81  62 /  10  20  20  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  88  62  83  60 /  10  20  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  87  62  82  60 /  20  20  20  50
Los Lunas.......................  88  61  84  60 /  10  20  20  40
Rio Rancho......................  87  61  82  59 /  20  20  20  50
Socorro.........................  88  63  84  62 /  20  20  30  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  79  55  75  54 /  40  30  50  50
Tijeras.........................  84  57  78  56 /  30  30  40  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  81  52  75  51 /  20  30  40  40
Clines Corners..................  79  52  71  52 /  20  30  40  40
Gran Quivira....................  81  55  76  53 /  20  20  40  40
Carrizozo.......................  86  59  79  57 /  20  20  40  40
Ruidoso.........................  80  53  71  52 /  30  30  60  60
Capulin.........................  75  49  69  51 /  50  90  30  30
Raton...........................  79  50  72  51 /  40  70  30  30
Springer........................  80  53  74  54 /  40  60  30  30
Las Vegas.......................  80  50  70  50 /  40  60  40  30
Clayton.........................  82  54  73  55 /  30  80  10  20
Roy.............................  82  55  73  54 /  40  70  20  30
Conchas.........................  89  61  78  58 /  40  60  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  91  61  79  59 /  30  40  20  30
Tucumcari.......................  92  60  79  58 /  30  60  20  20
Clovis..........................  91  60  79  57 /  20  40  20  20
Portales........................  90  61  79  58 /  20  40  30  20
Fort Sumner.....................  90  61  80  59 /  20  30  20  20
Roswell.........................  95  65  84  63 /  10  20  30  40
Picacho.........................  86  59  77  57 /  30  20  40  50
Elk.............................  81  57  73  54 /  40  20  60  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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