Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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304 FXUS65 KABQ 272328 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 528 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 226 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening along and west of the central mountain chain, then linger over northern areas especially near the Colorado border on Sunday. An inch or so of additional snow accumulation is expected in the northern mountains above 9000 feet with locally up to 3 inches on the highest peaks. A warming trend will commence Sunday through mid week with high temperatures mostly in the 70s and 80s at lower elevations starting Monday, and highs peaking a few to around 12 degrees above 1991 to 2020 averages on Wednesday. Some models depict a disturbance clipping northeast New Mexico late Thursday through Friday with cooling temperatures areawide and a chance for showers, thunderstorms, and some very high terrain snow over the northern mountains and eastern plains. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 226 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024 An upper low will continue to trek from the Four Corners region to eastern Colorado tonight. Temperatures aloft have cooled considerably (500 mb readings dropped to to -20 C over a large portion of the CWA), and this has destabilized the lower half of the troposphere with lifted indices having reduced to -3 to -4 C. This will keep convective showers going with isolated thunderstorms through sunset, and the Pacific cold front should overtake most western and central areas of NM by dusk this evening. More stable nocturnal conditions will yield less coverage of precipitation, with only isolated to scattered showers, mainly over the northern mountains, being driven by the weak, but larger scale ascent with the low and weak orographics. Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out for tonight near northern sheltered areas that received any soil soaking rainfall from this afternoon. Into Sunday, a subsequent shortwave trough will drop on the back side of the departing low. This feature will help kick off more showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm or two over northern NM Sunday afternoon. An isolated footprint near the NM-CO border might exceed a tenth of an inch or so, but otherwise fairly meager amounts less than a tenth will be more common. Diurnal instability will wane into Sunday evening, and so will shower/storm activity. Breezy conditions will also be common Sunday with a new lee-side surface low developing. Daytime temperatures on Sunday will be rising, but still a few degrees shy of normalcy in most zones. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 226 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Fair weather with warming temperatures and some gusty afternoon winds Monday and Tuesday under zonal flow aloft. The warming trend will continue into Wednesday as the flow turns southwesterly and becomes breezy ahead of a low pressure system tracking southeastward across the northern and central Rockies. Some models suggest the upper low will clip northeast NM with a chance for showers, thunderstorms, and mainly mountain snow showers over the northern mountains and east late Thursday through Friday. After high temperatures around 2-12 degrees above 1991-2020 averages on Wednesday, readings will trend a few to 10 degrees cooler with continued breezy conditions on Thursday. A gusty backdoor cold front Thursday night should drive a few to 8 degrees of further cooling central and east on Friday. Modest east canyon wind gusts up to 30 mph will be possible in the central valleys from Santa Fe to Albuquerque and around Carrizozo Thursday night and early Friday morning. High temperatures on Friday look to bottom out near to around 4 degrees below 30-year averages along and east of the central mountain chain Friday, while western readings remain a few to around 6 degrees above the averages. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Scattered showers along with isolated thunderstorms will continue mainly over the northwest half of the state through late evening. Brief bouts of gusty outflow winds will accompany most passing showers or thunderstorms. Expect mountain obscurations to continue over mountain peaks through late evening as well. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually dissipate this evening with at least isolated to possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northeast quarter of the state Sunday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING... Ongoing showers and thunderstorms may offer some hit-and-miss footprints of soaking rainfall over portions of western to north central NM through the evening, but remaining areas will be left out. The eastern plains will remain dry late this afternoon, and the combination of stronger winds there will keep the critical threat going through sunset. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will dwindle overnight, but is expected to redevelop on a less widespread basis Sunday, mainly over north central and very far northeastern NM where there will be fewer recipients of soaking rainfall. From Sunday through Wednesday, a warming and drying (lower humidity) trend will get underway with the biggest changes likely being noted between Sunday and Monday. Fortunately, winds will remain manageable, generally in the breezy 15 to 25 mph range, a welcome occurrence for late April. A passing disturbance and associated front in CO could lead to cooler temperatures into Thursday and Friday, but unfortunately humidity does not appear to get much of a boost, nor does there appear to be much precipitation relief. Winds may increase slightly during this Thursday-Friday time frame, but a stronger intensification or more southward track (somewhat similar to what the European model is showing) could bring at least marginally critical wind speeds to the forecast area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 37 65 36 72 / 20 10 0 0 Dulce........................... 31 61 27 68 / 40 40 10 0 Cuba............................ 33 60 33 67 / 50 20 5 0 Gallup.......................... 29 64 29 70 / 60 10 0 0 El Morro........................ 30 59 30 67 / 60 10 0 0 Grants.......................... 31 64 30 72 / 40 10 0 0 Quemado......................... 33 62 32 70 / 70 5 0 0 Magdalena....................... 38 66 40 72 / 30 5 5 0 Datil........................... 34 62 34 69 / 40 5 0 0 Reserve......................... 30 67 31 76 / 20 10 0 0 Glenwood........................ 38 71 42 80 / 5 5 0 0 Chama........................... 28 54 26 62 / 50 60 20 0 Los Alamos...................... 37 61 38 67 / 60 30 5 0 Pecos........................... 34 62 35 68 / 40 20 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 33 56 33 62 / 40 60 30 0 Red River....................... 26 51 26 59 / 40 70 40 0 Angel Fire...................... 21 54 24 60 / 30 50 30 0 Taos............................ 30 61 28 68 / 30 40 20 0 Mora............................ 32 61 32 67 / 30 30 20 0 Espanola........................ 38 67 37 75 / 50 30 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 35 63 37 69 / 50 30 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 34 67 35 72 / 50 20 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 41 68 45 75 / 50 5 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 42 70 44 77 / 50 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 35 72 36 80 / 50 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 39 70 43 77 / 40 5 0 0 Belen........................... 39 74 38 80 / 50 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 40 71 41 78 / 50 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 36 73 35 79 / 50 5 0 0 Corrales........................ 39 70 41 79 / 40 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 37 73 37 79 / 50 5 0 0 Placitas........................ 39 68 42 73 / 50 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 41 69 43 77 / 40 5 0 0 Socorro......................... 44 75 45 82 / 30 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 36 62 40 67 / 50 5 5 0 Tijeras......................... 37 65 40 70 / 50 5 5 0 Edgewood........................ 35 65 37 71 / 40 5 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 33 67 33 72 / 40 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 33 63 36 68 / 30 5 5 0 Mountainair..................... 35 66 38 71 / 50 5 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 36 66 39 70 / 40 5 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 42 69 45 75 / 10 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 35 63 38 69 / 10 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 33 59 32 68 / 20 60 40 0 Raton........................... 33 63 33 72 / 30 60 40 0 Springer........................ 33 67 34 73 / 20 50 30 0 Las Vegas....................... 33 65 34 71 / 10 30 10 0 Clayton......................... 39 66 41 75 / 20 30 20 0 Roy............................. 35 66 39 73 / 10 30 30 0 Conchas......................... 40 75 41 80 / 5 20 20 0 Santa Rosa...................... 41 74 41 77 / 5 5 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 40 75 42 80 / 5 5 10 0 Clovis.......................... 42 75 46 81 / 5 0 10 0 Portales........................ 43 76 45 82 / 5 0 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 43 77 44 81 / 0 0 5 0 Roswell......................... 48 82 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 43 74 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 40 71 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-126. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226-238>240. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...33