Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 212345 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
545 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A typical mid May weather pattern will continue to impact New
Mexico over the next 24 to 36 hours. The dryline, or surface
boundary separating moist air to the east and warm, dry air to the
west is hugging close to the eastern New Mexico border, just
inside the east central plains of the state. This boundary will
continue to act as a trigger for showers and thunderstorms, some
of which could turn strong to severe with large hail and damaging
winds early this evening. Most of the storm activity will subside
after dark, and then the dryline should push back to the west
some. This could bring some low clouds along and east of a KTCC to
KROW line early Sunday morning. The dryline will then move back
into west Texas by Sunday afternoon, precluding the development of
any showers/storms in New Mexico. Elsewhere, the gusty winds
ongoing will relax some after sunset, only to restrengthen into
Sunday afternoon.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...345 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A few strong to severe storms are possible near the Texas border
through the evening. Elsewhere, dry and breezy to windy
conditions will be the rule. On Sunday, storm chances across the
east lessen further, but the winds will be in store once again.
Not much change expected for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday either
as a mid level dry slot keeps the weather dry with afternoon
winds. A weak storm system looks to cross northern New Mexico on
Thursday, but even this system does not bring significant
precipitation chances with it.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dryline has set up shop in far eastern NM this afternoon as
expected. Clouds continue to bubble along it and expect storms to
develop along it at any time. Opted to include Union County in the
watch as dewpoint actually increased as winds backed to the SSE
earlier this afternoon. Some of that moisture as mixed out now but
still a healthy Td gradient between KRTN and KCAO as of this writing.
Hail and gusty winds will be the main threats with these storms.

Also across the northeast, we have seen winds just breach wind
advisory criteria at times this afternoon. Due to the marginal
nature of the wind speeds, and the severe tstm watch already in
Union Co., will not issue a wind advisory and confuse the issue.

Tonight, expect the dryline to slosh back westward, again perhaps a
little farther than models predict. However, given a bit more
westerly component to the winds on Sunday afternoon, combined with
the dry slot pushing thru the remainder of the area, expect the
dryline to mix farther east, likely at least to the Texas border,
before storms develop. Kept a 10 PoP in the far east on Sunday, but
suspect most, if not all, of the activity will be east of the
border. Therefore, dry and breezy conditions will be the rule,
though windier conditions will be felt across the NE, much like
today.

Starting Sunday and continuing through the middle of next week,
temperatures will vary little. Below normal temperatures will be
the rule across the west, near normal across central areas, and
just above normal across the east. The dry slot will keep precip
chances nil, though by Wednesday afternoon, some mid level
moisture will work into the northwest, perhaps resulting in some
virga.

The next upper level low will likely weaken into an open wave as it
crosses northern NM on Thursday. Some light precip is possible
across the north, but nothing significant is expected.  Temperatures
will lower a few to several degrees across the board as a result of
this system though. Models continue to diverge thereafter with
regards to the upper level pattern, but no big storm systems appear
to be on the horizon.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will impact areas along the New
Mexico/Texas border this afternoon into the late evening.
Potential heavy rain footprints, frequent cloud to ground
lightning, hail and erratic winds will accompany storm activity.
Gusty south to swly winds will gradually taper down tonight.
Overnight recoveries will be good to excellent along the eastern
borders and SE Plains. Early morning low clouds and fog
development will favor those areas as well.

Chances for dryline storms will continue to favor the far SE
Plains Sunday as the dryline sloshes back and forth along the
Texas border. Meanwhile, a strong upper level low is churning over
the NW Pacific U.S. which will set us up for several days of dry
and windy conditions across much of the state accompanied by daily
fire weather concerns in the east.

Drier air will begin filtering into the state Sunday, lowering MinRH
values below 15 percent. Temperatures will be near/above normal east
of the Central Mountain Chain with below normal readings along and
west of the mountain chain. Critical fire weather conditions will
persist across high terrain areas but mainly east of the Central
Mountain Chain where max haines of 5 to 6 values and stronger SW
winds will persist. Though atmospheric conditions suggest
critical fire weather conditions, green up and recent rains will
preclude a fire weather watch at this time.

Temperatures will remain near/above normal in the east, below
normal central and west Monday through Wednesday as drier air and
gusty SW winds persist. Although temperatures look to fall below
seasonal norms on Thursday, continue anticipating fire weather
concerns across eastern areas as the upper level low dives
southward into Arizona before crossing over northern New Mexico
and central Colorado on Friday. Continue to watch the Wednesday
and Thursday timeframe for potential fire weather watches as the
vegetation continues to dry out through mid week. Temperatures
look to fall below normal areawide by Friday as wetting rain/high
mountain snow chances favors the northern tier late Thursday into
Friday because of wrap around energy from the upper level low.
Look for gusty winds to become W/NW late Friday into Saturday as
well.

Expect excellent vent rates areawide Sunday through Thursday, with
conditions deteriorating across the far north central Mountains
on Friday. Look for 5 and 6 haines values areawide Monday through
Thursday, except for spotty lower values in the Northern Mountains
on Thursday. 5 and 6 haines values will favor central and southern
areas by Friday. Good to excellent recoveries will remain in the
SE Plains on Saturday but fall to fair values areawide Sunday
through Thursday, with a slight increase in values across the NE
Plains on Friday.

32

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Dryline storms will favor the SE and far E Plains this aftn around
21z. Decided at add VCSH for TCC and ROW just in case of storm
development west of those sites. There could also be a possibility
of gusty to erratic winds near TS activity. Low cigs could also
impact eastern areas after midnight with the greatest confidence
at ROW around 10z. Otherwise, expect VFR cigs elsewhere with
breezy to windy S/SW winds this aftn with 25 to 35 kt gusts.

32

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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