Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 241149 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATE EAST
SLOPES WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST AND THICKEN WHILE LOWERING TO NEAR 150. OTHERWISE...
VFR ALL AREAS.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AREAS TODAY...THEN BREEZY
TO WINDY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREAS WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE
STATE. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE FRONT WILL FAVOR THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION MAINLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER SHOULD ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...INCLUDING
INTERSTATE 25 OVER RATON PASS. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT
BETWEEN THE 40S AND MID 60S THURSDAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 60S AND 70S WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SANGRES EASTWARD BEING FAVORED FOR
GENERALLY UNDER A HALF INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE CO BORDER...AND THIS COULD LEAD
TO OVER 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN A FEW SPOTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SPOTTY
WETTING PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE SNOW LEVEL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BE
BETWEEN 7000 AND 8700 FEET WEDNESDAY WHEN PRECIPITATION STARTS.
THE BACK DOOR PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP THE SNOW LEVEL
TO AROUND 6000 FEET ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...CAUSING
RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AROUND RATON AND
CAPULIN. MODEL LIFTED INDICES SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE PECOS WILDERNESS SOUTHWARD TO CORONA AND
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW
OF THESE COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE DUE TO DECENT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ABOVE THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DROP LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE PLAINS BY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BEST FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
SHIFT EAST OF NM BY THEN.

MODELS RAPIDLY ADVECT DRY AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AS A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE RIDGE WILL INDUCE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH ELEVATED MOISTURE
MAY ARRIVE BY SUNDAY TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE NORTHERN SANGRES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CAN ALSO ARRIVE AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF.
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH MOISTURE THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING
WITH IT...BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS MONDAY AND ELSEWHERE MONDAY NIGHT.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...

DESPITE VERY DRY...WARM...AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE SURFACE WIND COMPONENT WILL
BE LACKING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. SEVERAL HOURS OF MARGINALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN CLINES CORNERS AND VEGAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RED FLAGS. HAVE
CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR ALL AREAS TODAY. STRONG WEST WINDS ALOFT
THIS MORNING AS EVIDENCED BY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES...WILL MOVE OUT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SLIDE QUICKLY SE WEDNESDAY WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLE
MORE LIKE SPRING FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. THE TYPICAL NW FLOW CORRIDOR
FROM AROUND FARMINGTON TO ABQ AND CLINES CORNERS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. THE BACK DOOR PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL
RACE DOWN THE PLAINS AND DELIVER A STRONG PUNCH OF WINDS AS WELL.
WETTING PRECIP LOOKS RELEGATED TO THE FAR NE PLAINS AND THE RATON
MESA...WHERE EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. TEMPS WILL TREND SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WITH READINGS 5 TO 10F BELOW NORMAL.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL FORCE VENT RATES INTO THE POOR/FAIR
CATEGORY FOR A COUPLE DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL AVERAGE FAIR TO GOOD WHILE MIN RH VALUES AVERAGE 10
TO 20 PERCENT.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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