Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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719
FXUS65 KABQ 201748 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1048 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
High clouds will be prevalent today with winds aloft increasing from
the northwest. Winds will be strongest near and immediately downwind
(east southeast) of the central mountain chain of New Mexico where
some mountain wave activity will induce turbulence. Wind gusts will
occasionally reach 40 to 45 kt near/downwind of the central mountain
chain with surface gusts generally staying lighter outside of these
areas. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. A cold front will
invade New Mexico from the north early Tuesday morning with gusts of
25 to 35 kt developing in the eastern plains of the state.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
An unseasonably strong ridge of high pressure aloft will dominate
the weather across northern and central New Mexico today through the
Thanksgiving holiday weekend. While a cold front will impact the
eastern plains Tuesday and again Saturday, temperatures overall will
be near to well above normal. Windy conditions across portions of
central and eastern New Mexico this afternoon will lead to some
areas of critical fire conditions mainly from the Central Highlands
across the East Central Plains. Winds will also increase early next
week as stronger westerly flow aloft develops. Dry weather may
persist through the end of November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Made what will likely turn out to be a feeble attempt at timing the
high clouds traversing northern and central NM the next couple of
days as the upper ridge builds to unseasonably high heights to our
west. The deepening lee trough today should allow for a good warmup
east but high clouds may not permit the guidance forecast maximums
to quite reach their maximum potential across the northern and
central NM. Winds this afternoon over portions of the east and
central look to be gusty, and a few spots such as Clines Corners may
reach wind advisory criteria, but not thinking the stronger winds
will be widespread enough for any wind highlights.

The lee trough will give way to surface high pressure across the
east Tuesday, leading to a 5 to 15 degree cooldown. The west could
be a few degrees warmer than today, depending on the amount of
cirrus. Not many changes for Wednesday as the ridge builds more
strongly northward and into the Great Basin. Thanksgiving day looks
to be dry with highs a little warmer again. A lee trough on Friday
may produce some afternoon breezes central and east, but more
notably, highs will range from 12 to 20 degrees above average. Both
MEX and ECX guidance forecast a high of 70 at the ABQ Sunport, and
mid to upper 70s could be widespread over the plains, with TCC near
80 or just a smidgen warmer. Another dry front will impact the east
Saturday lowering highs 5 to 15 degrees again, but the upper ridge
will be located north to south over NM, so temperatures forecast to
remain well above average in the west.

Consequently, getting to Grandma`s house (and back) this
Thanksgiving weekend at least across northern and central NM looks
like a piece of cake. In addition, the 00Z GFS doesn`t hold much
hope for any precipitation through the end of the month. A system
passing to our north looks to bring mostly dry and windy weather
around the early to middle of next week time frame. Temperatures to
remain at least 10 degrees above average Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As a strong upper low moves across the interior Pacific Northwest
and over the northern Rockies today, NW flow aloft over NM will
become stronger. A weak lee surface trough in eastern NM will
increase the surface pressure gradient and transfer stronger winds
aloft to the surface after midday today. West northwest winds will
range from 15 to 25 mph across east central NM with gusts 25 to 35
mph through early evening. These downsloping winds will dry out an
already very dry lower atmosphere with relative humidity falling
below 10 percent during the afternoon. A Red Flag warning will be
needed this afternoon across eastern FWZ107 and western FWZ108,
where the western half of Guadalupe County and northwestern De Baca
County will be included. Winds near mountain top level of the Sangre
De Cristos will be in the 35 to 45 mph range this afternoon, and
there will be a few hours of near critical fire weather conditions
in these areas during the mid afternoon hours. Winds will subside
across most areas tonight, but downslope winds 15 to 25 mph with
gusts to near 30 mph will continue overnight across portions of the
east central plains. Relative humidity recovery tonight across the
east central plains in this well-mixed environment will be poor.
Recoveries across other areas in northern and central NM will be
fair, except good in the northern mountains. Ventilation will be
fair and good in most of the eastern plains today, except fair to
poor in the far eastern plains near the TX border. Otherwise,
ventilation will be poor in the Rio Grande Valley and in northwest
NM, while it will be fair in the rest of the area west of the
central mountains.

A weak backdoor cold front will move into eastern NM Tuesday morning
around sunrise and move westward  the central mountains by
Tuesday afternoon. Though temperatures will fall by 5 to 10 degrees
across most of the eastern plains Tuesday, highs will still be a few
degrees above normal. The main change in the air mass behind the
front will be a significant increase in low level moisture. Relative
humidity across the eastern plains Tuesday will increase 10 to 20
percent with minimum relative humidity rising above 20 percent
across most of the eastern plains. To the west of the central
mountains Tuesday, high temperatures will increase 5 to 10 degrees
above normal, as strong high pressure aloft builds eastward from
AZ/NW MX. Ventilation behind the backdoor cold front in the eastern
plains will be fair to good, while elsewhere it will be poor to
fair.

Very strong upper level high pressure will expand north and east
across NM Wednesday through Friday with high temperatures possibly
reaching near record values. Winds will be light through the period
with strong high pressure aloft. Ventilation Wednesday through Friday
will be poor to fair.

28

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ107-108.

&&

$$



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