Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 110541 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1141 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.
QUASI-STATIONARY BACKDOOR FRONT OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS MAY PUSH
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND
NE HIGHLANDS AND DISSIPATE AROUND MID-DAY FRIDAY. WITH BKN-OVC
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN TONIGHT...WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN
LIGHT FOR MOST SITES.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR RATON TO CLOVIS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER NEW MEXICO. SOMEWHAT HIGHER
HUMIDITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT COULD SPARK A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. FRIDAY WILL SEE MORE HIGH
CLOUDS WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
THICKER CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CENTRAL AND
WEST. ONCE THAT SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST...A COLDER UPPER SYSTEM
ALONG WITH A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE BEST CENTRAL AND
EAST...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY STRETCH FROM THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL
TO BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...REMAINING CLOSER TO NORMAL
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COOL FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR RATON TO CLOVIS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM OVER NEW MEXICO. SOMEWHAT HIGHER
HUMIDITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOTED AND LAPS SHOWING A SMALL
AREA OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE RATON/JOHNSON MESA TO CAPULIN THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THAT REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM AND ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL.

SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOSH ALONG THE STATE/S EASTERN
BORDER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS HAD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE REGION BUT DID NOT CHANGE THE WX GRID FROM NOW. WINDS WILL BE A
BIT LIGHTER FRIDAY AND HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE...BUT NOT MANY SITES...IF ANY...LOOK TO WARM TO RECORD
HIGHS.

AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES SAT AND A WEAK
UPPER LOW/TROUGH TRACKS INTO WESTERN NM...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTHWEST HALF WITH THIS FEATURE. SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY BE DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME DID
NOT PUT DRY STORMS IN THE WX GRIDS. A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT IS STILL
SCHEDULED TO SWEEP INTO AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY THEN
MAY PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS FALL A GOOD 10 TO 20 DEGREES OR MORE CENTRAL
AND EAST MONDAY...AND WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER MOST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EAST...FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL
DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME...A MUCH COLDER TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES MAY BE ABLE TO INITIATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SNOW
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...WHERE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER TROUGH MAY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT THIS LOOKS
TO NOT BE AS COLD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...

THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING MEASURED PW OF ONLY .09 INCHES AT ABQ THIS
MORNING AND SATELLITE AND CIRA PW ESTIMATES SHOWS A DRY SLOT
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH ARIZONA AND INTO NEW
MEXICO. WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER MOST ZONES...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS. ALONG THE
EXTREME EASTERN BORDER OF THE STATE...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH TCC BY MID DAY CLOVIS BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THIS
FRONT...OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL ONLY REACH FAIR LEVELS...WITH
THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH POOR RH RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND WITH A RELAXED
GRADIENT SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE...WITH MAINLY WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA MOST
ZONES. HOWEVER...EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS WILL AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH HAINES OF 6 AND AREAS OF
SUPER HAINES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AND THE
CENTRAL VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES.  WITH ANY MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST
MIXED OUT...POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED ALL ZONES.

WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
STEADILY INCREASE ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND WHILE HAINES VALUES LOOK TO DECREASE A BIT...VALUES
WILL STILL REACH 5 OR 6 ALL ZONES. THUS...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS
UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THE AREA STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN TO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS TO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
STATE...SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BETWEEN GALLUP AND GRANTS.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT FOR SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
TERRAIN AND A POTENT BACK DOOR FRONT WILL RACE INTO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS DURING THE DAY...REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE
EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES AND CENTRAL VALLEY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND HAINES COULD TOP OUT AT 5. CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION SHIFT TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL THEN EASTERN ZONES.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ104-106>109.

&&

$$

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