Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 191727 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1127 AM MDT MON SEP 19 2016
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours with generally light
winds. Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Tuesday,
mainly across western areas.
.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT MON SEP 19 2016...
Building high pressure will result in another dry and warm day
once again today. A weak upper low off the southern California
coast is forecast to draw moisture up from Hurricane Paine and
across western New Mexico Tuesday. This moisture and the
associated showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward into
central and eastern New Mexico Wednesday through Friday. An
unseasonably deep upper level storm system dropping south through
the Great Basin promises cooler temperatures over the weekend.
As an upper high builds up from the southeast today, another dry
day with above to well above average temperatures is in store.
Models continue with idea of southerly winds on the east side of
the upper level cold core closed low off the southern California
coast drawing Hurricane Paine northward today and tonight. The
two systems/lows merge near Los Angeles sometime Tuesday morning
and then head east. Strengthening southwest flow aloft ahead of
this feature brings mid and upper level moisture into western NM
Tuesday afternoon. Additionally, southwest flow aloft results in a
lee side surface low developing across eastern Colorado Tuesday.
The resulting south and southeast surface flow brings low level
moisture north and back into south-central NM Tuesday. Models
generate showers and thunderstorms across western areas as well as
across the south- central mountains Tuesday afternoon and evening.
This moisture heads east into central and eastern NM Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Latest models continue with idea of
Wednesday and Thursday being quite active outside of the eastern
plains. Despite plenty of cloud cover, expect swly jet speed
maxima of around 45kt to get showers and isolated thunderstorms
going most areas Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
Both GFS and ECMWF are back to being farther south with an
unseasonably strong closed upper low dropping southeastward
through the Great Basin Friday. Models prog a 95kt southerly jet
across northern NM Friday afternoon. A jet of this magnitude along
with sufficient low level moisture could result in strong to
severe storms across much of the area Friday afternoon and
GFS and ECMWF have changed their tune with how the above mentioned upper
level closed low evolves over the weekend. Both models close off a
circulation across northwest NM Saturday. Models then retrograde
the upper low Sunday into early next week. Both GFS and ECMWF solutions
would result in cooler weather. 00z ECMWF solution would end up
being quite wet for NM if the upper low parks over southeast AZ.
A very dry airmass continues with poor to fair humidity recovery
across much of the area and minimum humidity forecast in the single
digits and teens. Haines values of 5 to 6 are forecast across the
area today under sunny skies, although with a mixed bag of vent
rates thanks in part to weaker winds throughout the column.
Above normal temperatures will persist into Tuesday, but the trend
will be a cooling/moistening one going into mid week as the upper
high shifts east and a west coast trough develops. This pattern will
allow the moisture associated with Hurricane Paine in the eastern
Pacific to advect north and east into the Desert Southwest, then
east across New Mexico. Humidity and chances for wetting rain will
trend up going into midweek as a result, although coverage of
wetting rain will be limited with extensive cloud cover limiting
Winds and vent rates will trend up going into the end of the work
week as a potent upper low swings east across the Great Basin into
the Central Rockies. Chances for thunderstorms will trend up late
week as well as the upper low and associated trough interact with
the left-over remnant moisture. 00z medium range model solutions
differ with the movement/position of a second upper low, forecast to
develop over the state this weekend. The ECMWF solutions is notably
wetter/cooler than the GFS, but a number of the GFS Ensemble members
lend some confidence to the ECWMF solution. Lower forecaster
confidence for next weekend at this time.