Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 270948
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
348 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER TODAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE
STRONGER WINDS. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TOMORROW AND INCREASE WINDS ONCE AGAIN FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE WILL ACROSS
THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS
ATTEMPT TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW WILL FOCUS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME MODEST CHANGES ARE TRENDING FROM THE 12Z AND 00Z MODEL SUITE
WITH REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE VARIOUS UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
THAT WILL ROTATE THRU THE SW THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE UPPER WAVE FROM
TUESDAY HAS EXITED WELL INTO THE PLAINS WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM CAN
BE SEEN SLIDING SE TOWARD THE OREGON COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE THRU NM TODAY AND DELIVER A DECENT WARMING TREND
OF ROUGHLY 10F OVER TUESDAY. A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON BREEZES.

A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW FROM YESTERDAY WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR FRONT INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE OREGON COAST SYSTEM WILL EDGE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND INCREASE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER NM. A SHARP MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT IS SHOWN TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WHILE
LOW LEVEL EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
TREND BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL THURSDAY WITH WINDS CRANKING UP AGAIN
FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SURROUNDING HIGH TERRAIN. SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES TRENDED FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE UPPER WAVE SO THE GREATER QPF WILL END UP MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON WESTERLY FLOW AGAIN
FRIDAY AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER NM. A SECONDARY
PIECE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL FOCUS OVER WESTERN NM
FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THRU
THE DAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COOL FOR LATE APRIL
AS TEMPS TREND BACK BELOW NORMAL ALL AREAS. DRYLINE STORM CHANCES
FOR THE PLAINS APPEAR WELL EAST INTO TX AND SW KS NOW...BUT IF
THE SYSTEM SLOWS OR DIGS A LITTLE MORE THAT WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS
FARTHER WEST.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
LOW AND YET ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER CHILLY AIRMASS FOR LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN FALLING APART ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SEVERAL VORT MAXES WITHIN THE
OVERALL TROUGH ARE NOT BEING RESOLVED WELL AND THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
IMPACT WHERE THE GREATER QPF FOCUSES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. AT THIS
POINT THE MAIN FOCUS COULD REMAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH AND INTO
COLORADO. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO POPS FROM TODAY TO AVOID
FLIP FLOPPING AROUND TIL THINGS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT AGAIN.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY WEATHERWISE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. WHILE AFTN TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY 5 TO 15
DEGREES WARMER TODAY...BUT STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. BETWEEN 1 TO 3 HOURS OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY ACROSS A RELATIVELY SMALL PORTION OF
EAST CENTRAL NM LATE THIS AFTN...PRIMARILY WESTERN SAN MIGUEL AND
GUADALUPE COUNTIES...THOUGH NOT LONG ENOUGH IN DURATION TO WARRANT
ANY HIGHLIGHTS...ESPEC GIVEN THE EXPECTED HAINES VALUE NEAR 4.

SW FLOW ALOFT TAKES SHAPE THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM. HAINES VALUES FOR THE MOST PART WILL COME UP ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE SE HALF OF FCST AREA AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ALONG
WITH SOME LOW LVL DRYING...SOME SOME AFTN CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE A PRETTY GOOD BET FROM MID AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
ON EAST. BUT WITH STILL SOME VARIATION AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING HOW
FAR SOUTH AND WEST A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS TONIGHT AND LINGER
ON THU...IT MAKES DELINEATING THE NE EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA
SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS THU AFTN AND VERY EARLY EVE TO WARRANT
THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. IT WILL
BE ISSUED WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE AND LOOKS TO BE ABOUT A 6 HOUR
POTENTIAL. ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW THIRD OF THE STATE THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS...THOUGH IN THE
MAJORITY OF CASES....ESPEC BELOW THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE UNDER WETTING CRITERIA.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THU NIGHT AND FRI...
THOUGH ONCE AGAIN MOST FCST MODELS HAVE SHAVED BACK COVERAGE AND TO
SOME DEGREE AMTS AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO THE EVENT. SEEMS TO BE
AN OFT RECURRING THEME. FRI MAY STILL BRING JUST A FEW HOURS OF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO AREAS EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...BUT TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO ISSUE FOR THIS PERIOD AT
THIS TIME. MAY BE SOME FURTHER EXPANSION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
WEEKEND...BUT E CENTRAL AND NE NM SHOULD BE MOST FAVORED FOR WETTING
RAINS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FRI THROUGH NEXT TUE.

43

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT
24HRS. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS NEAR KFMN...BUT ARE NOT FORECAST TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  65  41  65  35 /   5  10  30  30
DULCE...........................  60  31  61  30 /   5  10  40  50
CUBA............................  61  35  62  30 /   5   5  30  40
GALLUP..........................  64  35  62  29 /   0  10  30  30
EL MORRO........................  61  32  60  26 /   0   5  20  30
GRANTS..........................  65  34  65  29 /   0   5  10  20
QUEMADO.........................  65  35  62  32 /   0   0  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  72  38  71  34 /   0   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  56  30  56  28 /  10  20  50  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  40  62  36 /   5   5  20  30
PECOS...........................  63  37  63  35 /   0   0  20  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  61  33  59  32 /  10  10  30  50
RED RIVER.......................  54  29  50  30 /  10  10  40  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  56  28  52  28 /  10  10  40  60
TAOS............................  62  34  61  32 /   5   5  30  40
MORA............................  60  35  57  34 /   5   5  20  40
ESPANOLA........................  68  40  70  38 /   5   0   0  20
SANTA FE........................  63  40  65  36 /   5   5  10  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  66  40  69  37 /   5   0   5  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  68  47  71  41 /   0   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  70  46  74  43 /   0   0   0  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  72  43  76  41 /   0   0   0  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  71  47  74  42 /   0   0   0  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  72  45  75  40 /   0   0   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  70  45  74  41 /   0   0   5  10
SOCORRO.........................  76  47  78  42 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  63  42  66  37 /   0   0   5  20
TIJERAS.........................  67  43  68  39 /   0   0   0  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  67  38  68  35 /   0   0   0  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  64  38  66  35 /   0   0   0  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  66  42  68  39 /   0   0   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  70  45  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  63  43  67  40 /   0   0   0   5
CAPULIN.........................  60  35  58  37 /   5   5  20  60
RATON...........................  65  35  63  36 /   5   5  10  50
SPRINGER........................  68  37  65  39 /   0   0  10  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  65  36  63  36 /   0   0   5  30
CLAYTON.........................  69  39  67  43 /   5   5  10  50
ROY.............................  66  39  64  42 /   0   0   0  30
CONCHAS.........................  75  44  74  48 /   0   0   0  20
SANTA ROSA......................  74  44  76  45 /   0   0   0  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  77  44  80  47 /   0   0   0  20
CLOVIS..........................  75  45  80  47 /   0   0   0  20
PORTALES........................  76  47  82  49 /   0   0   0  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  75  47  80  48 /   0   0   0  10
ROSWELL.........................  82  48  87  49 /   0   0   0   5
PICACHO.........................  75  46  79  46 /   0   0   0   5
ELK.............................  70  44  73  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ106>108.

&&

$$



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