Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 140015 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
615 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MOST OF THE FCST AREA TO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD...BUT ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SACRAMENTO MTS EAST TO THE SE PLAINS...MAINLY BETWEEN 05Z AND
16Z...WHERE SOME MAINLY MVFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOP. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW FAR NORTH THOSE CIGS MAY GET. KROW SHOULD BE THE ONLY TAF
SITE IMPACTED BY THESE CONDITIONS. A FEW -SHRA -TSRA WILL LINGER
UNTIL 03Z OR 04Z ACROSS W CENTRAL NM AND MAY IMPACT KGUP WITH SOME
ISOLATED HIGH BASED -SHRA. SPOTTY -SHRA AND -TSRA WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AFT 19Z SUN ACROSS MOST MT RANGES IN FCST AREA...BUT WILL
MOSTLY DISSIPATE NOT LONG AFTER MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SW...S CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL SECTIONS. BRIEF
HIGHER SLOPE MT OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WITH IT.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE HIGHS TODAY ARE 15 TO 25
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY`S. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE AREA IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK
THANKS TO A WEAKER BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH IN ON MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TREND UP AS A RESULT OF INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ODILE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MAY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING RESULTED IN A CROP OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THEY`RE
HAVING A HARD TIME DUE TO UNIMPRESSIVE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
GIVEN TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THERE. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND A NICE WARM-UP IS
UNDERWAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE 20-25 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT...THOUGH NAILING DOWN THE
AREA IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED LOW STRATUS
FAVORED OVER FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...BUT REALLY COULD GO
EITHER WAY DUE TO THINNING CLOUDS CURRENTLY. THE AREA MOST LIKELY
TO SEE FOG LOOKS TO BE THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING
HIGHLANDS...ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW. SUNDAY
NIGHT MAY BE MORE FOG-PRODUCTIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AS HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPS MOVE
IN.

A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THE
SAME SETUP TOMORROW WILL PRODUCE EVEN STRONGER WINDS AS SURFACE
PRESSURE DROPS ANOTHER 3-4MB. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE
TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH MORE SURFACE HEATING FORECAST
AND PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THAT
SAID...MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY WITH A WEAKER
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING SW INTO OUR AREA. THE TIMING OF THE
BACKDOOR FRONT IS RAIN-FAVORABLE FOR THE ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE
METRO AREAS...PUSHING IN AROUND MAX HEATING WITH CONVECTION
FORECAST TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SURROUNDING
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO INTERACT WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOAKING RAINS THERE. TUESDAY LOOKS ACTIVE AS
WELL...BUT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON COLD AIR ADVECTION...OR
LACK THEREOF...BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT. AT THIS TIME...WE`RE
PLAYING DOWN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ADVERTISING THIS FRONT AS
MORE OF JUST A MOISTURE SURGE. HOWEVER...CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE
NAM HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE BIT COOLER WITH THE FRONT.

THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FORECAST WILL FEATURE A LARGE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FEATURE NO DOUBT...BUT HOW FAST IT SHIFTS EAST IS THE
QUESTION. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER...WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING
ONTO THE RIDGE LONGER AND BRINGING THE REMNANTS OF ODILE NE ACROSS
AZ LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A CALIFORNIA TROUGH. THE GFS BRINGS THAT
TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST THU/FRI AS THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS SOUTH...WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM ODILE MOVING ACROSS
NM. IF THE ECMWF WORKS-OUT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY WITH FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO HAVING THE BEST
SHOT AT RAIN. OUR FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO MODELS FOR
NOW.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE AND WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY IN CHECK.

LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENING OVER SE COLORADO AND NE NM TODAY AND
RESULTING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BEGINNING TO HELP MODIFY
TEMPERATURES. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS THE LEE
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS FURTHER. THE SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AVERAGE LEVELS OVER ALL BUT
SOUTHERN ZONES.

ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE NE PLAINS MONDAY MORNING
AND THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNSET. MODELS CONTINUE TREND
OF STRENGTHENING THIS FEATURE WITH EACH RUN. LATEST NAM12 BRINGS THE
FRONT WEST THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY AND AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE
AVERAGE...SCATTERED SLOW MOVING AFTERNOON AND EARLY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL MOUNTAINS.

A DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND TEMPS ALOFT WARM
AND DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE NW. UPPER HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY FOR WHAT IS LIKELY THE DOWN DAY FOR THE WORK WEEK WITH
REGARD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VENTILATION RATES WILL ALSO
DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
AND SLOW WINDS SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER HIGH ALOFT COMBINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER.

LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES BEYOND THURSDAY AS LATEST MODEL SUITE ONCE
AGAIN DIFFERENT WITH HOW TO HANDLE HURRICANE ODILE. GFS KEEPS THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION OFFSHORE BUT TEARS OFF A PORTION OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH THE SLY/SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH AND
THE HURRICANE. ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT LIFTS THE CIRCULATION CENTER UP
INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THEN NEWD...KEEPING MOST
DEEP MOISTURE NW OF NM. ODILES TRACK ALL COMES DOWN TO HOW FAR SOUTH
THE CLOSED LOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST ENDS UP.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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