Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 192115
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THE CENTER OF A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE
STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN
QUITE A WHILE. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
90S TO LOWER 100S. THE HEAT WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS A
SHOT OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED STORMS RETURN
TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE INTRODUCED BY GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR
AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS VERIFY THE FOCUS OF THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STEERING FLOW WILL GUIDE ACTIVITY INTO
THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SEVERE STORM
TO THE SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS WILL SERVE AS A SIGN OF THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY 20Z LAPS DATA. POTENTIAL FOR QUARTER HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS IS THERE WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION AS IT MOVES
EAST TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SO SOME CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IS ON TAP FOR THE ABQ METRO.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHEARED UPPER WAVE OVER THE BAJA WITH A
DEEP TAP OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO
TOWARD SW NEW MEXICO. GFS/NAM THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FOCUSES THE BEST
INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM INTO MONDAY. THE H5 HIGH
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY MORE TO 596DM BY MONDAY SO COVERAGE WILL APPEAR
MORE SUPPRESSED COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND.

VERY HOT TEMPS ARE THEN IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE H5
HIGH BUILDS TO NEAR 600DM AND 700MB TEMPS APPROACH +21C. MANY AREAS
IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS WILL AVERAGE MID 90S TO LOW 100S...ESPECIALLY
FROM ABQ SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
LIMITED TO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. DESPITE FEWER STORMS STEERING FLOW
WILL BE VERY WEAK SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WHERE EVER A
STORM FIRES UP.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE CHANGING THEIR TUNE AGAIN ON WHERE THE
UPPER HIGH WILL MIGRATE TO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST SHOWS
THE HIGH STAYING MORE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER NM WITH ONLY SLIGHT
WOBBLES TO THE WEST. THIS STILL ALLOWS SOME BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS BUT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACTIVITY
COULD REMAIN LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FORMER EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS S CA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CIRCUMAMBULATE AN UPPER HIGH OVER NM TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY. THE MOIST NORTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP UNDER THE 500 MB
HIGH OVER NM WITH ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD WETTING STORM COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE ON MONDAY THE 500 MB HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE STATE...AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...CAUSING A DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL AND NW AREAS.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE 500 MB HIGH TRAVELS NORTHWARD OVER S CO ALLOWING BETTER
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS FROM THE S AND SE.
AN UPPER LOW PASSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE NW US BORDER WITH
CANADA IS FORECAST TO DRAW THIS MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL...WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IN THE FORM
OF A MODEST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...HIGHS SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY IN MOST LOCATIONS
DAILY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. READINGS
SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD AS BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES BEGINNING TUESDAY
IN THE EAST...BUT NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY ELSEWHERE. HAINES INDICES OF 5
SHOULD BE COMMON EACH DAY ACROSS NORTHERN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR VALUES OF 6 FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST AREAS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
IT WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT STORMS ANYWHERE TODAY...BUT KFMN AND
POINTS E OF KROW APPEAR TO HAVE THE SMALLEST CHANCES. WITH THE MID
LEVEL HIGH ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER KTCS CELLS SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY
E TODAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME MOVING N OVER THE SW MTS AND SE MOVING
STORMS E OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. PERTURBATIONS IN NW FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD FAVOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND NE AREAS FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY MAINLY E OF A
LINE FROM KROW TO KTCC. MVFR LOCATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THESE
TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KROW.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  65  96  66  97 /   5  10  10   5
DULCE...........................  51  90  55  91 /  10  20  20  10
CUBA............................  58  89  58  90 /  10  30  10  20
GALLUP..........................  57  91  58  92 /  10  20  10   5
EL MORRO........................  54  83  55  84 /  20  30  10  20
GRANTS..........................  54  90  55  91 /  10  20  10  20
QUEMADO.........................  56  84  57  85 /  20  30  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  61  92  61  93 /  10  20  10  10
CHAMA...........................  49  83  50  85 /  20  30  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  62  87  63  87 /  20  30  20  20
PECOS...........................  58  84  61  86 /  20  40  20  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  54  81  56  83 /  20  30  20  30
RED RIVER.......................  49  75  51  76 /  20  40  20  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  44  79  44  80 /  20  40  20  40
TAOS............................  54  87  56  88 /  20  30  20  20
MORA............................  55  83  56  84 /  20  50  20  30
ESPANOLA........................  61  92  63  92 /  10  30  10  10
SANTA FE........................  62  87  63  87 /  20  40  10  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  61  94  62  93 /  20  30  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  67  94  69  94 /  20  30  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  69  96  70  96 /  20  30  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  97  66  97 /  10  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  67  98  68  98 /  20  20  10  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  65  98  65  97 /  10  20  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  67  98  69  98 /  20  20  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  70 100  71 100 /  10  20  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  63  91  64  92 /  20  30  20  20
TIJERAS.........................  63  93  64  94 /  20  30  10  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  59  90  59  90 /  20  30  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  89  62  89 /  20  50  20  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  66  91  65  92 /  20  40  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  69  93  70  92 /  10  40  10  20
RUIDOSO.........................  61  87  62  87 /  20  60  20  40
CAPULIN.........................  60  86  63  87 /  30  40  20  40
RATON...........................  60  89  62  91 /  30  40  20  30
SPRINGER........................  61  91  63  93 /  30  40  20  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  57  87  59  89 /  30  50  20  30
CLAYTON.........................  64  92  65  96 /  30  20  20  30
ROY.............................  62  89  65  91 /  40  40  20  30
CONCHAS.........................  68  97  70  98 /  40  30  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  65  95  68  96 /  40  30  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  68  98  71  99 /  50  30  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  64  93  65  94 /  50  20  20  20
PORTALES........................  66  97  68  98 /  50  20  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  67  97  70  97 /  40  30  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  69 100  71  99 /  10  20  20  20
PICACHO.........................  66  92  69  92 /  20  30  20  30
ELK.............................  64  86  66  86 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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