Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 180015 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
515 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Have let the wind advisories and high wind warnings for portions of
the eastern plains expire on schedule. However, based on latest
guidance, have extended Guadalupe County`s wind advisory through 12Z.
Will also need to watch for crashing mountain waves around Raton
and/or Springer. Was tempted to extend the warning in zone 528, but
since models do not indicate a strong inversion above mountain top
level, opted not to. New NPW already out. 34

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Strong westerly winds persist across northern and central NM early
this evening. These winds may briefly weaken through 04z or so, but
should ramp back up with gusts near 35KT along a cold front that
rushes from NW to SE overnight. At this time, winds will veer to the
northwest. Meanwhile, gusts near 50KT remain possible across the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains as well as near KLVS. These strong
mountain winds will diminish after midnight. Light rain showers are
ongoing across west central and north central NM, but as the cold
front moves through, another brief period of rain and high elevation
showers will be possible. BLSN across mt tops may significantly
reduce visibilities. Mt obscurations are possible. Winds will taper
off for central and western NM after the frontal passage but remain
elevated over eastern NM well into Saturday morning behind the back
door portion of the cold front. 34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...204 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A rush of wind, blast of cold air and a burst of northern mountain
snow expected through tonight, then dry and relatively quiet weather
through next week.

High pressure to our south will shift westward this weekend, but will
remain the dominate weather player through next week. There will be
a short wave trough swinging across NM tonight, delivering wind and
much colder air, as well as some rain and mountain snow across the
north. Northwest flow aloft this weekend will weaken. A short wave
trough will zip through the state Tuesday but with no moisture. A
high pressure ridge will increase to our west, providing dry and
pleasant weather for the rest of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Some excitement in the weather through the next 18 hours or so as an
upper level disturbance, centered over northeast NV, races southeast
across NM tonight, along with a surface cold front. Rain and mountain
snow, strong and gusty winds and a big drop in temperatures will be
the result tonight. Accumulating snow will be limited to the higher
northern mountain terrain, with a few inches possible. The best
chances will be over the San Juan Mountains, where we will issue a
winter weather advisory for 3 to 6 inches of snow above 8500 feet. We
will extend the high wind warnings for the Sangre de Cristo Mountains,
Central and Northeast Highlands, Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa and Union
County through the night. We will extend the wind advisories through
the night in the Chuska and Sandia/Manzano Mountains. Occasional
strong and gusty winds will be felt elsewhere, with brief advisory
levels speeds likely reached in many areas, not long enough for any
headlines. Temperatures will plummet behind the cold frontal passage,
dropping 20 to 30 degrees lower than last night over the north and
west.

500mb heights will rebound Saturday behind the trough. Sunshine and
less wind will be the rule, but the afternoon will be chilly. Highs
will be below normal, the first time in a week or more in most areas.

The coldest night of the fall so far will blanket the forecast area
Saturday night, finally dropping temperatures below freezing in the
Albuquerque northeast heights and foothills, and around Roswell.
The second half of the weekend will be dry with a cold start but
pleasantly cool afternoon. A very weak short wave trough passing
overhead will only deposit some high clouds over the north.

Next week will bring about the return of what we have experienced
lately, namely dry and mild weather. Monday will be mild with above
normal highs, and moderate breezes over the central mountains into
the east. A short wave trough will zip through the state Tuesday
with little fanfare, only managing to cool the east down close to
normal for highs on Tuesday. A strong ridge of high pressure will
develop to our west later next with with a light north to south flow
aloft over NM. Lots of sunshine, mild late November high temperatures
and not much wind will be the weather story for the second half of
the week, including Thanksgiving!

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Widespread windy conditions are in place today across NM ahead of an
approaching upper level storm system over the Great Basin. Very dry
air with record warm temperatures over east central NM has led to
critical fire weather conditions within the entire Red Flag area.

Overall no changes were advertised from guidance over the next seven
days. Strong west winds will transition to northwest and north winds
tonight as a strong cold front moves through NM. The west slopes of
the northern mts will have the best chance for some light snowfall
accumulations through tonight, where roughly 2-5" is possible above
9,000`. High temps will trend 15 to 30 degrees colder Saturday
behind the front. Vent rates will deteriorate to poor over central
and western NM with lingering good values over the east.

The coldest temps of the fall season are in store for Sunday morning
with a widespread solid hard freeze expected for areas that have not
frozen yet. Exceptionally dry air will accompany this airmass with
subzero dewpoints in the high terrain. Sunday temps will moderate
closer to normal with light winds and poor vent rates. Slightly
stronger northwest flow Monday will allow rates to improve into the
good category over more areas. Temps will warm above normal again
Monday.

A back door frontal boundary will slide into eastern NM Tuesday and
cool temps closer to normal. Vent rates will remain good most areas
with stronger flow aloft and near the surface. Unseasonably strong
high pressure will then develop over the southwest U.S. Wednesday
through the end of the week with widespread poor ventilation, light
winds, and above normal temperatures.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Saturday for the following zones...
NMZ502-521-533.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ108.

High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for the following zones...
 NMZ513>515-523-527-529-530.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST Saturday for the following
zones... NMZ510.

&&

$$



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