Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 212116
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
316 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT. A POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT MAY UNFOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER
AND WARMER FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL BE COOLER AGAIN WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE MAY MOISTURE MAYHEM CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH SEVERAL SMALLER EMBEDDED SYNOPTIC
SCALE UPPER WAVES. THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND 18Z RAOB PLOTS
INDICATE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEEPENING OVER THE STATE WITH
WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S. NAM BUFRS INDICATE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH NEAR
TOTAL SATURATION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS LEADING TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
CENTRAL NM AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DESPITE COOL TEMPS. MODELS
ARE CONVERGING ON A HEAVY RAIN PATTERN FOR TONIGHT WITHIN CENTRAL
NM...WHICH WILL ADVECT EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS THAT ARE SATURATED
FROM WELL ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL THIS MONTH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. AHPS
RIVER GAGE MONITORING INDICATED NOTABLE RISES ON MANY CREEKS AND
STREAMS WITH THE LAST EVENT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...SO THIS
BEARS WATCHING TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POSSIBLE ACTION
STAGES BEING REACHED...ESPECIALLY IF CELL TRAINING CAN DEVELOP INTO
THE RIO PUERCO HEADWATERS AND CREEKS LEADING INTO THE RIO GRANDE
FROM THE SANGRES. NO FLASH FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH
A SHORTER DURATION RAINFALL EXPECTED COMPARED TO MONDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE RELATIVE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS A 700-500MB
DRY SLOT ADVECTS EAST OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM. A VERY INTERESTING
PATTERN IS THEN INDICATED BY THE BULK OF 12Z/18Z GUIDANCE MODELS
WITH AGREEMENT FROM SPC. A STRONG DRYLINE SETUP IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT IS NOT
A MATTER OF WHETHER SEVERE WEATHER WILL BREAK OUT...BUT HOW FAR WEST
THE DRYLINE FORCING WILL MOVE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE AREA EAST
OF A LINE FROM ROSWELL NORTH TO SANTA ROSA AND CLAYTON WILL BE UNDER
THE GUN FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. DUE
TO THE EXTENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST FEW WEEKS FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT FOR THE EAST.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AND LEAVE BEHIND
A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AND MILDER DAY. THE FIRST UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL APPROACH THE
FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
BY LATE DAY. THIS BEGINS THE NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND COOLER
WEATHER FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
HOLIDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN TUESDAY. GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY IS STILL
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH RESPECT TO WHETHER UNSETTLED CONDITIONS HOLD
ON OR A WARMER RIDGING PATTERN TAKES SHAPE.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOWED IN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
CREATED QUITE THE DRYLINE NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY FOUND NEAR THE ARIZONA STATE LINE
AND THIS DRIER AIRMASS WILL TRY TO PUSH EASTWARD REST OF TODAY.
ONCE THE SUN SETS...THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH BACK TO THE WEST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THIS DRYLINE AND PROVIDE
WETTING RESULTS BETWEEN THE DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A CLUSTER
OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE NE AND
EC PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL BE QUITE HIGH ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. MORE
MODERATE LEVELS NEAR THE AZ STATE LINE.

THE PACIFIC LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO THE STATE ON FRIDAY. A
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT FOUND AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SW TO NE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL
AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE CO BORDER AS WELL AS NEAR THE TEXAS
STATE LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LEFT OVER SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE
FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND
FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. STRONG WIND AND
LOW RH WILL EXPAND AND IMPACT ZONES 105/109 AND A LITTLE BIT OF 106
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAINES VALUES WILL
PEAK OUT BETWEEN 5 TO 6 ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. FUEL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT VERY CRITICAL SO WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS AND ACTIVE OVERNIGHT DRYLINE
SCENARIO ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. WETTING RAIN IS
EXPECTED.

THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THE DRYLINE SHOULD
SLOSH BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT FOR THE MOST
PART DRIER WEATHER WOULD PREVAIL. THE RIGHT COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED LIGHTER
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF DURING THIS PERIOD.
WETTING RAIN WOULD BE LIMITED BUT PLACES COULD SEE IT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MTNS. TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. TEEN HUMIDITY
VALUES SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BUT LEVELS APPEAR TO BE
NEAR IF NOT A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST ON SATURDAY AND LESSEN
ON SUNDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS.

A TRAILING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE SHOULD CONTINUE SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER
FAVORING THE NORTH ON MONDAY. TEMPS WOULD REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH TEEN HUMIDITY READINGS LIMITED TO THE SOUTH.
MODELS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DRY/WARM CONDITIONS TUESDAY
BUT ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD
MID/LATE WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND A BIT WITH THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT SUSPECT IT WOULD BE MORE UNSETTLED THAN DRIER.
ALSO EXPECTING THE DRYLINE TO SHARPEN UP AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
DRIER CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE BECAUSE OF THE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE MODELS. BASED ON WHAT
HAS BEEN HAPPENING...A MORE MOIST SCENARIO IS LIKELY.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTNS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. A BAND OF SH/TS WILL IMPACT TCC/LVS
BETWEEN 19Z TO 21Z OTHERWISE MAINLY LOOKING AT -RA. CENTRAL AREAS
WILL SEE IFR/MVFR CIGS BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD OR LONG IN DURATION
COMPARED TO THE EAST. AEG/ABQ/SAF WILL BE IMPACTED AND EXPECTING
IMPACT DUE TO PASSING SH/TS AS WELL. MAIN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. GUP/FMN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
BATTLE ZONE BTWN THE HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR TO
THE WEST. SH/TS WILL DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON AND IMPACT THESE
SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT.
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SH AT FMN WELL INTO THE EVENING. TERMINAL
FCSTS WILL BE PRETTY DYNAMIC AND EXPECT SOME ADJUSTMENTS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HRS. MODELS SHOW IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST
BY MID MORNING FRI BUT THINK THAT IS A BIT OPTIMISTIC. 50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  46  72  42  64 /  70  10   5  10
DULCE...........................  37  64  34  60 /  90  30  30  40
CUBA............................  39  64  38  60 / 100  10   0  20
GALLUP..........................  37  69  35  61 /  30   0   0  10
EL MORRO........................  37  67  34  60 /  30   0   0  20
GRANTS..........................  36  70  36  63 /  60   5   0  10
QUEMADO.........................  39  68  34  63 /  10   0   0  20
GLENWOOD........................  41  77  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  34  60  32  58 / 100  30  20  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  42  67  41  66 /  90  10   0  30
PECOS...........................  42  66  40  66 /  80  20   0  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  38  64  35  62 /  90  20   0  10
RED RIVER.......................  34  56  33  55 / 100  10   0  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  35  61  36  61 /  80  20  10  10
TAOS............................  37  65  38  64 /  80  10   0  10
MORA............................  40  65  40  65 /  80  10  10  10
ESPANOLA........................  43  71  41  70 /  70   5   0  10
SANTA FE........................  43  65  41  63 /  80  10   0  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  42  70  42  67 /  80   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  48  72  45  69 /  70   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  49  73  47  71 /  70   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  49  75  46  72 /  70   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  47  73  46  70 /  80   5   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  49  75  46  73 /  60   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  46  73  46  69 /  80   5   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  49  76  46  74 /  60   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  44  68  42  66 /  80   5   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  45  71  42  68 /  70   5   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  43  70  40  67 /  70   5   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  67  41  66 /  70   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  45  69  42  67 /  60   5   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  47  73  47  70 /  50   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  44  68  48  66 /  60   5   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  41  67  49  70 /  80  10  40  20
RATON...........................  42  70  46  70 /  60  10  20  10
SPRINGER........................  43  71  46  71 /  60  10  30  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  40  66  43  66 /  70  10  30  10
CLAYTON.........................  45  69  52  73 /  70  10  50  30
ROY.............................  43  68  50  71 /  70  10  60  20
CONCHAS.........................  48  74  54  78 /  80  20  60  20
SANTA ROSA......................  47  73  52  75 /  70  20  60   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  48  73  57  77 /  70  20  60  30
CLOVIS..........................  48  70  56  74 /  70  30  60  30
PORTALES........................  49  72  56  75 /  80  30  60  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  50  75  55  77 /  70  20  60  20
ROSWELL.........................  52  80  56  83 /  70  10  40  20
PICACHO.........................  49  77  49  77 /  60   5  20   5
ELK.............................  47  74  49  72 /  70   5  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

42


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