Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KABQ 141754 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1154 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. ALSO LOWERED
TEMPERATURES AND ADJUSTED WINDS AND SKY COVER FOR TODAY BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE...RADAR...MOS AND GRAPHICAL MODEL TRENDS. THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL FREEZE
TONIGHT...EXCEPT MAYBE FOR THE NORTHEAST HEIGHTS OF ALBUQUERQUE
AND SPOTTY MID SLOPE AREAS NEAR THE TOP OF THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION CENTRAL AND WEST. MANY PARTS OF THE EAST ARE LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WATCH FOR
NOW AND WILL LIKELY UPGRADE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...542 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014...
.UPDATE...
WIND ADVISORY FOR STATE LINE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST PLAINS SLATED
FOR EXPIRATION AT 6 A.M. MDT. ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT CANNON AFB ALL
NOW BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND CANNON SHOULD BE DROPPING OFF
STEADILY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. STATEMENT OUT SHORTLY...FRESH
ZONES AFTER 6 A.M. MDT.

SHY

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
DEEP TROUGH CROSSING OUT OF EASTERN NM INTO CENTRAL TX...AND SNOW
COVERAGE WITH IFR EXCURSIONS WILL TAPER OFF STEADILY FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH 18Z LATER TODAY. LOCAL EAST GUSTS FOR ABQ WILL KICK
IN BY 15Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEIGHBORING SANDIA MTS TO THE
EAST. RESULTING MT OBSCURATION SHOULD LIFT BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CIGS AND VIZ ACROSS THE STATE FROM 21Z ONWARD TO 12Z TUE MORNING.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
INCLEMENT WINTRY WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINNING TO EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA...SO ONLY SOME LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED...
MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN UNTIL MID OR PERHAPS LATE MORNING. ALL OF FORECAST
AREA TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURE NORMS TODAY...EASTERN
AREAS FAR BELOW NORMAL. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
NEARLY ALL OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WARMING TUESDAY
AND AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY. TWO MORE STORMS
COULD IMPACT THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK...ONE
BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND ANOTHER PERHAPS NEAR THE
WEEKEND. THE FIRST SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST THIRD WITH
SOME RAIN AND SNOW POTENTIAL...SECOND SHOULD BE A WARMER SYSTEM
WITH MAINLY SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR WINTRY WEATHER MAKER IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA SO WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS
EARLY...THOUGH WITH RADAR INDICATIONS OF SOME PATCHY SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIAS NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD
WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY AREAS GOING FOR NOW. WHILE A
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS FOR LATER TODAY INTO AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE ISSUE OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATER
TONIGHT. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS SOME LOCALES IN THE LOWER AND
MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THOUGH MOST AREAS IN LOWEST PARTS OF THE
VALLEY WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING FOR AT LEAST 2 TO 4
HOURS EARLY TUESDAY. BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THIS IS THAT MORE NORTHERN
AREAS ARE STILL EARLIER THAN THEIR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE
DATES...WHILE MORE SOUTHERLY ZONES ARE GENERALLY A LITTLE PAST
THOSE DATES. SO FOR NOW...AFTER POSING THIS ISSUE TO MY GRAVEYARD
PARTNER...IT WAS DECIDED TO GO FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR THOSE
NORMALLY WARNED FOR FREEZE ZONES THAT ARE AT OR PAST THEIR NORMAL
LAST 28 AND OR 32 DEGREE DATES. WILL ONLY GO WITH FREEZE WATCH AND
NOT DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN HARD AND REGULAR FREEZE WATCH...PARTLY
BECAUSE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE QUIETER WX AND A LOT MORE TIME TO HASH
OUT THE DETAILS AND INDEED THE EFFICACY OF WARNING ISSUANCES GIVEN
THAT SOME PLACES ARE PAST AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATES AND OTHERS
BEFORE THEIR DATES.

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR LATER WED INTO THU LOOKS A LITTLE LESS
COLD AND WITH PRECIP PERHAPS NOT PENETRATING AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST
AS THE CURRENTLY DEPARTING SYSTEM. FINALLY...YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM...A MUCH WARMER ONE...STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO BRING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT LITTLE SNOW
EXPECTED AS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE VERY HIGH.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL OUTLOOK...CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A BASIC STORY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK WITH SOME
DAILY DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH FROM ARCTIC
CANADA ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA WILL MOVE INTO
TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL
EAST PACIFIC NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST COLLAPSES INTO A BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY. PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND OFF INTO LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
BY MIDWEEK WITH NEW MEXICO NEAR THE TROUGH BASE. TROUGH WILL DRIFT
EAST INTO TEXAS THURSDAY...AS BAGGY TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE TROPICAL
EAST PACIFIC AND WEAK INTERVENING RIDGE MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTRODUCING BACKING BUT FAIRLY
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD. BASIC SOUTHWEST FLOW DEAL ALOFT
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GRADUAL SHIFT OF TROUGH OVER
NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY. NEXT...AND MORE MUSCULAR...NORTH PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY MIDWEEK BOUND FOR AN
EASTBOUND TRIP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

FOR TODAY...MUCH COLDER TODAY...WITH EASTERN PLAINS RUNNING 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW MID APRIL NORMALS...AND 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE STATE WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY AS PARENT SYSTEM MOVES OFF
INTO TEXAS. SUBSTANTIAL BOOST IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE 30S
OVER THE EAST...WITH TEENS PCT COMMON OVER THE WEST. NORTHERLY
BREEZES STRONGEST IN THE MORNING NEAR THE TEXAS LINE WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY GOOD VENTILATION CONDITIONS WITH
FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD WITH RETURN SURFACE FLOW
IMPARTING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL WINDS.
WHIPLASH WARM UP WILL BRING TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY BACK TO WITHIN 10
DEGREES OF MID APRIL NORMALS OVER THE EAST...AND TO NORMAL VALUES
OVER THE WEST. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL CRANK UP OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...AND RAPID DROPS IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BACK TO THE
LOW TEENS PCT WILL SET UP AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER...BUT
CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOL CONDITIONS...AND A FAIRLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH HAINES INDICES REMAINING NEAR 3 AND 4...AND ONLY LOCALLY TO
5...WILL PRECLUDE A WATCH FOR NOW. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTS AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING FIRE WEATHER PACKAGE. NO VENTILATION
ISSUES WITH FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...BROAD TROUGH OVERHEAD ROUNDING OUT OVER NEW MEXICO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS BROAD SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. SHOWER COVERAGE BUILDING UNDER THE OVERHEAD TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME RANGE CHANGING OVER TO
OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL WITH MODEST ACCUMULATIONS. WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS PCT FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN TIER...LOCALIZED WESTERLY BREEZES WILL SET UP LOCALIZED RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
GUSTS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BEST CANDIDATES FOR RAMPED UP FIRE DANGER.
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WOULD EDGE AWAY FROM A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
AS HAINES INDICES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 5 AND 6 OVER THE AREA WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. NO VENTILATION ISSUES...WITH FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WEST IMPROVING TO GOOD OVER THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD PLUNGE RETURNING
TEMPERATURES TO THE COOLER FOR THURSDAY AS NORTHEAST SHOWERS TAPER
OFF...AND SPEEDY NORTHEAST BREEZES SET UP NEAR THE TEXAS STATE LINE.
WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN FRIDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY. PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
MID APRIL NORMALS...AS SHOWER COVERAGE WORKS NORTHWARD INTO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND EXPANDING EASTWARD CROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND STATEWIDE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
BREEZY IN THE EAST LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HUMIDITIES REMAIN
ABOVE RED FLAG THRESHOLDS IN THE 20S AND 30S PCT INTO SATURDAY. VERY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION CONDITIONS ALL THREE DAYS.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ519-520-524-525-533>540.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>532.

&&

$$

44






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.