Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 070600 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1100 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016
06Z TAF CYCLE
Guidance is still hinting at FG along the TX/NM border to include
KROW for a few hours btwn 11-15Z. Elsewhere, mt waves strengthening
overnight w/ strong west winds overhead. -SN over the northern mts
will expand to the western high terrain thru sunrise. Marginal MVFR
cigs near 030 expected at KGUP and perhaps at KSAF. A few flurries
are even possible for KSAF, KABQ, and KAEG as the arctic front
moves southeast thru the area btwn 15-18Z. NW winds will increase
across central and western NM Wednesday behind the front while
winds shift N/NE across the plains. Clouds will thicken and lower
across the east Wednesday night.
.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016...
Strong west winds near mountain top level associated with a very
cold upper level storm system moving southeast through the Great
Basin will move in overnight. West winds of 25 to 35 mph with
gusts to 50 mph will develop around sunset in the higher
elevations of the Tusas mountains, central mountain chain and
south-central mountains. A modified arctic cold front will slide
south across the northern half of the state Wednesday and through
the remainder of the state Wednesday night and Thursday. The
coldest temperatures of the season remain on track for Wednesday
night and Thursday. A warming trend will get underway Friday and
continue through the weekend.
Strong west winds at 700mb ahead of a cold upper level trough
sliding sewd through the Great Basin and Central Rockies will be
the main weather story tonight. Models continue to generate areas
of light orographic snow in the the northern mountains but with
dry low levels, not expecting more than a few inches above 8500
feet by mid-day Wed. Modified arctic cold front remains on track
to slide southward through the northern half or so of the state
Wedesday. High temperatures in the northern mountains Wed will
remain in the teens with lower elevation sites primarily in the
30s. Throw in north and northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph and wind
chill values will range from the single digits below to single
digits above zero through the day. Less friction across the high
plains will lead to the usual cold air surge southward east of the
southern Rockies. East and northeast winds develop across much of
the area Wednesday night. Low temperatures plummet most areas with
the exception of the southwest mountains and lower RGV where
stronger east and northeast winds keep temps from falling much.
NAM12 develops upslope stratus and perhaps some flurries from the
east slopes of central mountains east to the TX line Wednesday
night and Thursday morning. Local ice accretion/riming on area
roadways along the east slopes of the Sangres, Sandia/Manzano, and
south- central mountains as well as the central highlands is
possible late Wednesday night/Thursday morning as supercooled
water droplets in the low stratus clouds intersect with the
terrain and freeze on contact.
Thursday still looking the coldest day but latest bias-corrected
temperature guidance has come up a degree or two for most places.
This is most likely the result of the sfc high moving east a tad
faster, allowing return flow to set up faster.
Warming trend gets underway Friday and continues through Saturday.
GFS and ECMWF agree that the next upper level short-wave to impact
the area will move through the central Rockies Saturday night and
Sunday. This feature is expected to send a cold front through
northern NM along with bringing slight chances for light snow to
the northern mountains Saturday night and Sunday.
In the wake of the cold front last night, high temperatures have
been running cooler areawide, but departures from normal are most
pronounced in the eastern plains where readings are 5 to 15 degrees
below normal. Some light snow has been reported in the northern
mountain zones, but light accumulations have occurred. Winds at the
surface/20ft have undergone substantial direction changes over the
past 24 hours, but a west to northwest direction will become more
dominant overnight as a trough and second cold front passage
encroaches upon NM.
The passage of this trough and front will mean stronger winds aloft
over NM tonight into early Wednesday. These will be out of sync with
peak heating and mixing, so the high ridges and mountain peaks will
take the brunt of the strong speeds tonight through Wednesday
morning. A secondary area of strong winds from the north will then
impact the plains of NM into Wednesday afternoon as that segment of
the front arrives. Minuscule precipitation chances and amounts are
expected in the north central to west central zones tonight and
Wednesday. Cooler than average temperatures will settle into the
northern half of NM Wednesday, and one more day of decent
ventilation rates will hold, albeit at the cost of gusty
surface/20ft winds eclipsing 35 to 50 mph in some areas. Several
northern mountain locales are then forecast to fall below zero
Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Daytime high temperatures will run 10 to 20 degrees below average on
Thursday. The cold airmass will eradicate any mixing or dispersion,
and ventilation will be poor areawide. Temperatures quickly trend up
into Friday as winds veer south southwesterly, and readings will be
above average areawide by Saturday. Strong winds will also revisit
the area Saturday as another disturbance races through the central
Rockies. The pattern will still remain dry though. The mostly dry
west northwest flow aloft will persist thereafter with little to no
precipitation on the horizon. Thus, attention will be focused on
occasional bouts of stronger winds with cooler air invasions.
18Z TAF CYCLE
18Z Aviation discussion is below. Updated today`s forecast to
increase cloud cover primarily in the northern mountains and
northwest zones. Also, southwest winds through the afternoon
were boosted to 20-25 mph sustained in/around the Gallup area for
deeper momentum transfer already underway. Remainder of forecast
remains in check.
Wind Advisory until 1 PM MST Wednesday for the following zones...