Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 200550 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1150 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Convection nearly done with late this evening. Isold thunderstorms
remain across far northwest NM but not expected to impact KFMN.
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast across western NM along with the
south-central mts Thursday afternoon. KGUP and KFMN stand the best
chance for impacts from storms Thursday afternoon and early evening.
Isold storms expected along the Sandias/Manzanos and Jemez mts
possibly impacting KABQ. Storm motion will be west and nwwd around
10kt. Very dry air aloft will keep convection from developing over
the Sangre de Cristo mts and eastern plains.



.PREV DISCUSSION...337 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017...
The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase over west
central and southwest areas on Thursday as an easterly wave passes.
In the wake of the wave, moisture will increase Friday through Sunday
inducing a further increase in the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms with a risk of locally heavy rainfall. Activity will
favor central and western areas until Sunday and Monday, when the
focus for storms and locally heavy rain will shift to central and
eastern areas. Temperatures will begin to trend downward with a back
door cold front across northern and eastern areas Saturday, then
areawide on Sunday when highs will bottom out a few to 10 degrees
below normal.


The main 500 mb high pressure center is forecast to migrate from
Oklahoma to the Mississippi River Valley Thursday and Friday. On
Saturday it is forecast to weaken as another high pressure center
redevelops over the Great Basin. Meanwhile, energy from the easterly
wave is forecast to remain embedded in the mid-level ridge axis,
traveling northward over western NM Friday, then eastward over
northern NM Saturday, and southward through eastern NM Sunday into
Monday. An upper trough will also exit the northern Rockies on
Saturday sending a surface cold front southwestward into northern
and northeast New Mexico. A secondary surge of moisture and cooler
air is forecast to drop southwestward into NM Sunday and Monday as
the easterly wave energy forms a closed low aloft and drops
southward through the eastern plains. This will be a good setup for
locally heavy rainfall starting over western areas Friday, and
spreading into central areas as well on Saturday. The risk of heavy
rainfall looks to become more widespread across central and eastern
areas on Sunday with the enhanced low level upslope flow and the slow
moving upper low. The risk of fairly widespread heavy rain could
linger over and east of the south central mountains on Monday.

Drier air is forecast to push into the area from the east on Tuesday
as the 500 mb high begins to migrate eastward toward Colorado from
he Great Basin.



A large mid and upper level dry intrusion sliding northwest over NM
has significantly limited the coverage of showers and storms today.
Any showers and storms that do form will be focused over the south
central higher terrain and the far southwest mountains into this
evening. Activity will be moving slowly northwest with small wetting
rain footprints.

The upper ridge will loosen it`s grip Thursday and allow deep layer
south/southeast flow to shift into central and western NM. The focus
for showers and storms will increase along and west of the central
mt chain but still remain just isolated to scattered. Storm motions
will be slow toward the north/northwest. Locally heavy rainfall will
be possible mainly west of the Cont Dvd with wetting rain footprints
still rather small. High temps will trend a few degrees cooler over
the western third. Meanwhile, the eastern plains will remain dry and
hot with breezy south winds. Friday will be a repeat of Thursday
except storm motions will become very slow from south/southwest to

Models begin diverging somewhat on the depth and placement of the
deeper moisture Saturday and Sunday. At this time, the upper ridge
is shown to weaken further while a large area of moisture pools over
southeastern AZ and northern MX. Meanwhile, a convectively aided
back door frontal boundary enters eastern NM and improves upslope
flow across northeastern NM. This front has also been waffling on
its projected influence on the region but convective clusters will
most likely force the boundary farther southwest than current model
guidance shows. The general mid and upper level flow pattern will
attempt to become south/southwest effectively allowing for deep
layer moisture flux across NM through at least the middle of next
week. This will allow for more widespread heavy rainfall chances and
significantly mitigate wildfire potential.






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