Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 070533 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1033 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HRS. WEAK WIND SHIFTS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 12
KT.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOW
WARMING ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALL
AREAS TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NW BREEZES NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL KEPT MORNING LOW TEMPS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. THE SAME RIBBON OF NW WINDS LEVEL WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPS ALONG AND JUST EAST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FROM
DOING THE SAME TONIGHT.

DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE PUMPS UP ALONG THE WEST COAST. A DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NE NM SUNDAY
RESULTING IN SLIGHT COOLING. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST- CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BIG WARM UP STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY
AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH OVER CA/OR/WA STARTS TO
TRANSLATE EWD.

NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS BEYOND FRIDAY.
DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION DEVELOPED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
OCEAN DURING LAST 24 HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
HIGHLY CHANGEABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL STREAM CLOSED LOW WEST OF BAJA COULD MAKE
THINGS RATHER INTERESTING BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGHS ATTEMPT TO PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY PERIOD IS SET UP FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH A
WARMING TREND DESPITE BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS ON SUNDAY AND FRIDAY. A
BUILDING WEST COAST RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH MID WEEK AND
RESULT IN INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS
NEW MEXICO. DESPITE THE WARMING...VENT RATES WILL REMAIN POOR WITH
SOME POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE INTO THE FAIR OR GOOD CATEGORIES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL CRASH OVER THE ROCKIES AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
DOWNSLOPE AFTERNOON BREEZES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. HAINES
INDICES OF 5 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES
DIPPING INTO CRITICAL THRESHOLD TERRITORY WILL PROVIDE A FEW HOURS
OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DECENT WESTWARD PENETRATION OF FRIDAY`S BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT...BUT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL. EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...VENT RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN POOR GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT EXHIBITING GOOD RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY AND ARE NO LONGER SHOWING A TROUGH/LOW IN THE DAY 8-
10 RANGE. INSTEAD...WE`RE LOOKING AT INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND
A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH ALL OF THE ENERGY/ACTION
EITHER OFFSHORE OR OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SO FOR NOW...NO
INDICATION OF A WETTING EVENT THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS ALTHOUGH MORE
MODEL CHANGES IN THE DAY 8-10 RANGE ARE LIKELY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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