Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KABQ 191803 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1203 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
IT WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT STORMS ANYWHERE TODAY...BUT KFMN AND
POINTS E OF KROW APPEAR TO HAVE THE SMALLEST CHANCES. WITH THE MID
LEVEL HIGH ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER KTCS CELLS SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY
E TODAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME MOVING N OVER THE SW MTS AND SE MOVING
STORMS E OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. PERTURBATIONS IN NW FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD FAVOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND NE AREAS FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY MAINLY E OF A
LINE FROM KROW TO KTCC. MVFR LOCATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THESE
TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KROW.

44

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...342 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND MORESO ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TREND DOWNWARD OVER NORTHWEST NM MONDAY AS DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST
MOVES IN THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES AND WITH RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS...IT WILL MAKE
IT FEEL QUITE HOT AT MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AND WITH NO STRONG MOISTURE INFLUX....EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE CROPS
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER SW NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING
IN TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES MOST
LOCATIONS FOR MID JULY. STRONG AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ELY PUSH INTO
THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT TODAY AS WEST-NW STEERING
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SEND ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR WEST TOWARD
THE VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...MOUNTAINS AND NE HIGHLANDS...NE AND EAST-
CENTRAL PLAINS FAVORED FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE NE HIGHLANDS EAST AND SE OVER
THE PLAINS AS WIND SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE TO HELP STORMS BECOME
ORGANIZED.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TO SERN NM SUNDAY...ALLOWING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MONSOON
MOISTURE TO SEEP UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGING
SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY THERE. ALTHOUGH MORE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE
ACTIVE CROP OF CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT MAY BE QUITE THE
CHALLENGE TO GET THEM TO MOVE MUCH WITH STEERING WINDS LESS THAN
5KTS. LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL
HAVE TO RELY ON COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

UPPER HIGH ELONGATES AND FOLDS OVER SOMEWHAT MONDAY...ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO FAR NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM. MOISTURE
PLUME/THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SW MOUNTAINS NEWD TO
THE EAST-CENTRAL AND NE PLAINS.

UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER TUESDAY BUT GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHOW SELY OR SLY FLOW AT 700MB TRANSPORTING IN SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS SUGGESTING THAT ENOUGH PWAT/MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO OVERCOME THE RELATIVELY
WARM AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER HIGH (~600 DAM) TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER
UPPER LEVEL AIR FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...CONFINING STORMS TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND FAR WRN AND NWRN NM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND MORESO SUNDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY GET INTO
THE MIX.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SHORT TERM WARMING TREND WAS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DRYING
TREND...BUT NOW LOOKS TO BE A MOISTENING ONE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PWATS HAVE DEFINITELY BOTTOMED NOW AND WILL TREND UP THROUGH SUNDAY
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO A WEAK MONSOONAL PLUME AND LOW
LAYER MOISTURE CURRENTLY MAKING WESTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AT MIDNIGHT THE SURFACE DEWPOINT WAS 47 HERE
AT KABQ AND IS UP TO 59 AS OF 230 AM. LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN WETTING
RAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MOST NOTABLE CENTRAL AND WEST COMPARED
TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

DRY AIR OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC IS SET TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS AZ
AND INTO FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFT AS TAD FURTHER EAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED FROM
SW TO NE. AT THE SAME TIME...PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING AS
THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS. LOOK FOR A WARMING/DRYING TREND
MON/TUE...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON BOTH
THE MAXS AND MINS. HAINES INDICES WILL TREND UP DURING THIS PERIOD
AS WELL AND BE 5S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 6S SHOWING UP ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BEYOND TUESDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AND BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB HEIGHTS FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY ARE +2 TO +3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. WE`RE STILL
ANTICIPATING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT MUCH OF A WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT. LOOK FOR
THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANY
APPRECIABLE CHANGE.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.