Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 182302 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
502 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016
00Z TAF CYCLE
Not expecting low level moisture and therefore low clouds or fog
to return to ern NM between 19/06Z-15Z as sfc lee trof/low sag
into ne/east central NM. Upper ridge building over NM thru 19/21Z
with weakening winds aloft. Some ci may bleed into wrn NM aft
.PREV DISCUSSION...327 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016...
High pressure over New Mexico will continue dry conditions with
crystal clear skies through Monday. Low temperatures will be chilly
with strong radiational cooling and high temperatures will remain
pleasantly warm. Moisture will begin surging northward Tuesday along
with thick cloud cover. Showers and storms will return to the state
Wednesday and Thursday before a strong cold front slides southeast
across the area Friday. Cooler temperatures will return through next
A very dry and warm column is in place under a strong late summer
ridge axis over the southwest CONUS today. Temps have risen into the
80s and 90s over much of NM. Katabatic flow across the plains has
led to 95F last hour at KTCC. Surface dewpoints have fallen into the
teens and 20s. This dry air will lead to very efficient radiational
cooling and strong inversions with chilly low temps across the north
and west. Monday will be a near repeat of today with the exception
of a high cloud shield encroaching on the far west and southwest.
A dry upper level low retrograding off the SoCal coast will allow
mid and upper level flow to become S/SW over the southwest CONUS
Tuesday. This will generate impressive moisture advection as noted
by the NAEFS integrated vapor transport field. The GFS 700-500mb
layer mixing ratios increase from near 0g/kg Monday to over 6g/kg
Tuesday night as TS Paine moves north ahead of the retrograding
upper low. PW values are shown to surge to near 1" over much of NM
Wednesday and Thursday. Concerned that very thick cloud cover, lack
of upper forcing, and cooler temps will limit instability despite
all the moisture. Made little change to POP forecast since high
chance and likely values already indicated for Wed/Thurs.
A much deeper and colder upper level trough is then shown to dive
south into the back side of the departing subtropical wave Friday.
This will drive a strong Pacific cold front through NM. Latest model
guidance is bullish with a sharp, moist instability axis immediately
along the frontal boundary. Would not be surprised to see a squall
line with very gusty winds and hail move southeast thru the area
during the late afternoon. Beyond Friday, autumnal weather arrives
behind the departing upper trough, which may actually linger over
eastern NM/western TX thru the weekend. This could allow for a
relatively blustery weekend across the eastern half of NM.
Dry air will remain in place most locations through Monday with
minimum humidities near or below 15% across all but the highest
terrain of the northern mountains and the plains of central and
eastern Roosevelt County. After mostly fair humidity recoveries
tonight, high temperatures will peak Monday 4 to 12 degrees above
normal. Haines of 5 will be the norm on Monday, except for some 6`s
north central and southwest.
A pattern change will commence Monday night through mid week as a
large mid-level anticyclonic circulation gradually shifts from
southern New Mexico northeastward over the midwest US. Meanwhile a
low pressure system will drop into the Pacific northwest drawing
subtropical moisture northward over NM. Initially western zones will
be favored for wetting precipitation Tuesday, but a disturbance off
the Baja Peninsula will eject northeastward across the Four Corners
region Tuesday night and possibly into Wednesday steering wetting
precipitation onto western parts of the eastern plains as well.
This disturbance may carry with it some of the mid and upper level,
remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Paine. Temperatures and Haines
indices will trend downward with the increasing moisture Tuesday and
Wednesday, while humidities rise above critical levels.
Look for winds to strengthen and for showers and thunderstorms to
remain fairly widespread Thursday as the aforementioned upper low
makes inroads into the western US and steers stronger southwest
winds aloft over New Mexico. Winds should strengthen further Friday
as a southwest to northeast oriented polar jet streak shifts
eastward over the area. The strongest surface winds should be along
and east of the central mountain chain where gusts from 35 to 45 mph
will be possible. The jet stream may usher a dry slot over the area
with decreasing thunderstorm chances on Friday. A strong Pacific
cold front Friday will also usher drier and cooler low level air
into the area for Saturday.
After pockets of poor ventilation from southwest to northeast areas
Monday, daily max vent rates will generally be good to excellent
for the remainder of the week.