Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 221803 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1203 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL ERODE AWAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW SPOT SH WILL IMPACT NW AND NC AREAS AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. MAIN IMPACT WOULD BE AT FMN THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING. THE MORE HAZARDOUS DVLPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. EXPECT HEAVY ROUNDS OF STORMS
WITH MAIN IMPACT AT TCC/ROW. THE DRYLINE MAY PUSH BACK TO THE
CENTRAL MTNS AND IMPACT LVS IN TERMS OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CIGS.
WILL MONITOR THAT TREND. FOLLOWING THE HEAVIER STORMS...IFR CIGS
SHOULD IMPACT ROW/TCC. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT MID TO LATE MORNING
BASE ON A CHANGE TO A DRIER SW FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE TYPICALLY
IMPROVES CONDITIONS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN REALITY THO.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...350 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BROUGHT SOME WET AND STORMY WEATHER TO
PARTS OF NEW MEXICO YESTERDAY...AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE
DOING THE SAME LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WORKS EASTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA...THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL RESIDE
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...SEPARATING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE
EAST WITH DRIER AIR TO THE WEST. AREAS JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE
WILL BE FAVORED FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL STORMS TURNING STRONG TO SEVERE
TONIGHT IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE MUCH MORE SPARSE AND NOT AS
STRONG. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS INTO UTAH AND COLORADO ON SATURDAY...THE NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NEW MEXICO WILL STAY FAVORED
FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND FAIRLY
SIMILAR COVERAGE WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A TRAILING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT IMPACTS THE SAME AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
YESTERDAY`S SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
BRIEF-LIVED DRY SLOT ALOFT PUNCHING IN BEHIND IT. THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SYSTEM...A DEEP LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA...WILL CONTINUE
INCHING EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...SPREADING ANOTHER SLUG OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE ALOFT INTO NM LATE
TODAY AND MORE-SO TONIGHT. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SOME MEAGER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL BE
GETTING MORE ORGANIZED. MEANWHILE THE DRYLINE WILL NOT ADVANCE
VERY FAR TO THE EAST DESPITE THE STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT
AND DRY SLOT ALOFT. THE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD STAY
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN HIGH PLAINS...POISED TO FUEL
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHEN BETTER FORCING ALOFT
ARRIVES. SOUTH SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES
AT 500MB WILL GIVE PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SPEED/DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS IN THE UNSTABLE (CAPE
VALUES OF 800 TO 1800 J/KG EVEN OVERNIGHT) ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

INTO SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK OVER THE UT/CO
BORDER...DRAGGING SOME DYNAMIC FORCING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
QUARTER OF NM. MEAGER DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL AID SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN NM ZONES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE A SECONDARY AND STRONGER DRY SLOT
ALOFT SCOURS MOISTURE OUT OF MOST REMAINING AREAS. AT THIS POINT
IT APPEARS THE DRYLINE WOULD ADVANCE INTO TX FOR THE MOST
PART...THE EXCEPTION POSSIBLY BEING EAST OF A CVS TO ROW LINE.
TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE IN MOST
LOCALES...GENERALLY 5 TO 12 DEGREES BENEATH CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES.

INTO SUNDAY A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND A VIGOROUS ONE AT
THAT...WILL WRAP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE INITIAL LOW THAT WOULD BE
WORKING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BE A QUICK MOVING...BUT DYNAMIC FEATURE THAT COULD IGNITE
SOME FAST MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN ZONES SUNDAY AS IT TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
NM. LATEST 22/06Z NAM12 EVEN SHOWS SOME BANDED STRUCTURE TO THE
PRECIPITATION AND SOME FRONTOGENESIS AMIDST THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLD CORE ALOFT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
SOME 60 PERCENT OR LIKELY CATEGORY. GFS IS ALSO LATCHING ONTO THIS
SLUG OF PRECIP.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL COME ALONG QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF ITS
PREDECESSOR...DRAGGING ACROSS NM ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WOULD NOT BE
OVERLY ABUNDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM...GIVEN ITS CONTINENTAL POLAR
ORIGIN...BUT SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS WILL KEEP THE BROKEN RECORD GOING
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN
ZONES OF NM. THE NEXT NOTABLE MOISTURE INTRUSION WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A LONGER WAVE TROUGH
INDUCES SOME PRESSURE FALLS WEST OF NM. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER
WETTING RAIN EVENT TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF WETTING RAIN YESTERDAY FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. ALTHOUGH MUCH DRIER AIR IS PUNCHING
INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING/APPROACHING UPPER LOW...THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER IS
RELATIVELY SATURATED WHICH IS LEADING TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY
ALONG/EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. MUCH DRIER
AIR TO MIX DOWN TODAY...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY EXCEEDING CRITICAL
THRESHOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WEST TODAY...WITH WINDS ALSO EXCEEDING CRITICAL THRESHOLD ACROSS THE
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER... TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AND IN ADDITION TO A MIXED GREEN-UP FUELS STATE...WILL
PRECLUDE A WARNING ISSUANCE. A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN UP LATE TODAY
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAIN TO MUCH
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. MORE DRYING SATURDAY...MAINLY EAST...AS THE
DRYLINE SHIFTS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING
PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA.

A WEAKER DISTURBED WESTERLY FLOW TYPE PATTERN STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN PERHAPS
TRENDING BACK UP AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
MODERATE A BIT...OUR FORECAST IS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ534>536.

&&

$$



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