Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 200530 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1130 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2016

Main focus for -shra/tsra setting up again in the RGV thru 09Z
before tapering off to thick mid level clouds thereafter. Storm
motions will be north near 15 kt. Clearing in the morning will
give way to more -shra/tsra aft 21Z, mainly along and west of the
Cont Dvd. Any direct hits will produce potential MVFR vsbys from
brief heavy rain, gusty outflow winds, and frequent lightning.
Greatest confidence for impacts will be at KGUP. Storm motions
will become more northeasterly near 10 kt Wednesday.



Monsoonal moisture plume will continue to kick off scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms rest of today into the
overnight period. The plume will weaken slightly over
western/central areas on Wednesday but continue to spit out some
wetter storms across western and central areas. The east will
remain hot and dry through midweek. The plume will become weaker
Thursday/Friday as the upper high shifts westward and more
centeredover the state. Moisture trapped within the high
pressure area will continue to produce some showers and
thunderstorms. A back door cold front during the weekend should
transport additional moisture into the high center and allow for
an expansion in storm coverage across the entire area. Showers and
thunderstorms should remain into early next week.


No major changes to the weather pattern. The Monsoonal moisture
plume originating from the Occidental will begin to weaken the
next few days and allow the footprints of heavier rain and overall
thunderstorm coverage to lessen incrementally compared to the
past couple of days. Wednesday still looks to be a decent storm
day favoring the western half. Played temperatures pretty close to
guidance numbers although went 1 or 2 degrees higher...especially
overnight period.

The upper high is still expected to migrate westward...from its
southern Plains location...late week into the weekend. Buying off
more on the GFS solution of increased moisture from a back door
cold front into the mid level deformation region during the
weekend period with lasting impacts into early next week. Think
ECMWF is drying conditions out a bit too quickly early next week.
Went strictly with model guidance for this stretch due to some
uncertainties between the long range models. If the GFS is correct
then high temps could be shaved 1 or 2 degrees below guidance
while the ECMWF would allow temps to warm a little higher.



Humidity trends have more or less leveled-off, with a relatively
moist atmosphere across western New Mexico and a drier atmosphere
across eastern portions of the area outside of the monsoonal
moisture plume and under the influence of the expansive upper high
centered to the east. Humidity recovery was improved overnight and
tonight will be similar, with mostly good recovery east and good to
excellent mountains and west. Most of the storms so far this
afternoon contain short-lived and relatively small updrafts, so
while lightning is decent the wetting rain footprint is still
relatively small. Wednesday will be very similar to today...but the
upper high expands/transitions west Thu/Fri to over New Mexico,
effectively severing the monsoonal moisture plume, with a little bit
of a late week drying/warming trend forecast.

The upper high becomes elongated from west to east across the
southern U.S. over the weekend and into early next week, with two
high centers and the western one becoming dominant. New Mexico looks
to remain on the eastern periphery of the upper high circulation to
the west, which will favor eastern and perhaps central New Mexico
for storms and chances for wetting rain. A weak backdoor front over
the weekend will add moisture and enhance chances for wetting rain
along and east of the central mountain chain. How far west the upper
high center sets up will be the determining factor as to how far
southwest the backdoor front penetrates and therefore how far west
chances for wetting rain are enhanced. A this time, western portions
of the area look to become hot, dry and unstable once again, perhaps
as early as Saturday.

Looking at the 12z ECMWF and GFS solutions through late next week
doesn`t offer much hope for wetting rain with a large and dominant
upper high parked over the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. Daily
rounds of storms would still be likely with this scenario through
late next week, but with poor coverage of wetting rain and almost no
chances across northwest New Mexico.





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