Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 160907
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
307 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM WILL ZIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SPREADING
A SWATH OF RAIN AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW AND USHERING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES. A WARMING FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE...AS TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEATHER SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND BRING ANOTHER WEEKEND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
MUCH OF THE STATE. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOR A WARM
START TO THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD WITH NEW MEXICO UNDER
DOWNSTREAM LIMB OF BROAD RIDGE SITTING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA
SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD STORY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THROUGH MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUCKLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER NEW
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN SONORA THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE WILL
SHEAR EASTWARD INTO TEXAS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...AS WEAK RIDGE
AHEAD OF BAGGY TROUGH FORMING OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND ENCROACH ON WESTERN NEW MEXICO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH BROAD TROUGH FEATURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MUCH OF THE ENERGY
WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WEAK
ZONAL FLOW WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING EASTBOUND TROUGH...AS
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM CRANKS UP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BEGINS
SOUTHWARD DIG DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAVE WILL CROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE TUESDAY AND ARRIVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS ON THE SPEED OF
THE TRIP FOR THIS SYSTEM ACROSS NEW MEXICO...DOMESTIC GFS HOLDS
THE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AS A STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW
WHILE EUROPEAN ECMWF KEEPS THE STRUCTURE WAVY AND USHERS IT INTO
TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AGREE WITH WPC COLLEAGUES THAT
GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE OF LATE IN CUTTING OFF
SYSTEMS OVER THE WEST...WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE EUROPEAN ECMWF
SOLUTION PREFERRED AS THE BETTER PERFORMER TO GUIDE FORECAST
THINKING FOR NOW. AS ALWAYS AND EVER...FUTURE RUNS WILL BE WATCHED
FOR IMPROVED COHERENCE IN THE RUNS TO COME.

FOR TODAY...STRENGTHENING AND INCREASINGLY TURBULENT NORTHWEST
FLOW OVERHEAD...AS AGGRESSIVE COLD FRONT PENETRATES NORTHEAST
QUADRANT DURING THE DAY TODAY AND DRIVES THIS FEATURE SOUTH AND
BULGES IT WEST OVERNIGHT. NORTH COUNTRY SHOWERS WITH HIGH COUNTRY
SNOWS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY
EXPAND EAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW LATE TODAY...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL NEAR THE
COLORADO LINE AND ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR NEAR RATON PASS FALLING
TONIGHT. NORTHERN SANGRE SUMMITS...AND RATON PASS...COULD SEE SNOW
ACCUMULATION SQUEAKING ABOVE WARNING THRESHOLDS...AND WILL SET
WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE TO COVER SNOWFALL FROM
LATE EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NOON TO GET THE BALL IN PLAY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE MID APRIL NORMALS...WITH AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SUMMITS...AND NORTHEAST BREEZES GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PLAINS.

FOR THURSDAY...NORTH COUNTRY AND NORTHEAST PLAINS SNOWFALL
TAPERING OFF AND ENDING AROUND NOON WITH MODEST ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...AND SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OVER THE SLOPES AS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT 6 TO 12
DEGREES BELOW MID APRIL NORMALS OVER THE EAST...AND NEAR NORMAL
TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER THE WEST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY...AND STALL AGAINST THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE PENETRATION
WILL SET UP SOME STATE LINE FOG NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGE AHEAD OF BAGGY WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY WILL NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT MOXIE TO
SHUT DOWN A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY...AS TIGHT SHORTWAVE IN
NEGATIVE TILT RIDES UP THE UPSTREAM LIMB OF THE RIDGE AND
INTERACTS WITH DRY LINE OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE. THUNDER
COVERAGE ISOLATED...BUT MOST ANY PLACE COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH BROAD AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR A MID APRIL DAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES OVERHEAD.
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL MAINTAIN
CONTINUED DRY LINE PRESENCE OVER THE TEXAS LINE ON THE NEW MEXICO
EASTERN BORDER FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY STATEWIDE. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY CENTRAL AND
WEST...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH REDUCED BUT STILL SUBSTANTIAL
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL...WITH SOUTHWEST BREEZES MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TREND WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.
WEAK FLOW OVERHEAD SUNDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AND BACK SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING CALIFORNIA COASTAL WAVE.
NORTHEAST SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AS TEXAS STATE
LINE DRY LINE BECOMES ACTIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.
HIGH COUNTRY CONVECTION TUESDAY WILL END UP OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONGER DYNAMICS MOVE OVER THE STATE AS
THE STORM CORE SHIFTS TO THE GRAND CANYON BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACT IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG AND NEAR INTERSTATE 40 FROM THE ARIZONA
BORDER EAST TO NEAR LAGUNA PUEBLO OR SO THEN EAST OF ABQ FROM
EDGEWOOD EAST TO TEXAS BORDER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL
AND THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CORE OF THE
GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITING
THE TIME RH REMAINS BELOW FIFTEEN PERCENT. SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND RATON PASS/NE HIGHLANDS AREA LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ABOVE ABOUT 7000 FT OVERNIGHT.

A COOLER MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE IS SHORT-LIVED AND
SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER WEST TEXAS WILL ALLOW FOR A LONG-LIVED
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER EASTERN NM THURSDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SELY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...LOW AND MID LEVEL
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE GREATLY TUESDAY AND BEYOND
WITH GFS MUCH DEEPER AND WETTER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH/LOW. ECMWF
KEEPS IT A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION
NORTH AND EAST OF NM.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SFC LEE TROF WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THRU 16/12Z. UPPER DISTURBANCE TO APPROACH
NORTH CENTRAL NM FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES THEREAFTER WITH INCREASING
AND LOWERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SFC CDFNT TO PUSH INTO NE NM AFT 16/18Z WITH HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS ALG RATON RIDGE BECOMING
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN WDLY SCT -SHRASN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  67  34  68  40 /   5   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  62  25  61  29 /   5  10   0   0
CUBA............................  64  29  62  32 /   5  10   0   0
GALLUP..........................  68  30  69  35 /   5   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  63  27  66  29 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  67  30  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  67  35  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  75  33  76  36 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  57  25  55  27 /  10  20   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  64  37  62  41 /   5  10   0   0
PECOS...........................  62  33  60  36 /   5  10   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  61  26  56  29 /  10  40   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  47  24  47  31 /  20  60  20   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  55  22  52  27 /  10  50  10   0
TAOS............................  63  27  60  30 /   5  30   5   0
MORA............................  62  29  57  34 /   5  30  10   0
ESPANOLA........................  69  34  67  37 /   5  10   0   0
SANTA FE........................  64  36  62  39 /   0  10   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  68  34  65  37 /   0  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  71  44  68  46 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  73  44  70  45 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  75  42  72  43 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  75  42  71  44 /   0   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  77  39  73  40 /   0   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  74  42  70  44 /   0   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  79  45  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  69  38  64  41 /   0   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  69  40  66  42 /   0   5   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  69  31  65  33 /   0   5   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  66  32  60  35 /   0   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  70  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  72  40  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  66  37  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  58  28  51  32 /  10  60  30   5
RATON...........................  63  31  55  31 /  10  60  20   5
SPRINGER........................  66  32  58  33 /  10  50  20   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  66  30  58  35 /   0  20  10   0
CLAYTON.........................  64  33  56  37 /   5  50  20   5
ROY.............................  67  32  55  35 /   5  30  20   5
CONCHAS.........................  74  39  63  41 /   5  20  10   0
SANTA ROSA......................  76  39  64  40 /   0  10   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  77  39  63  39 /   0  10  10   0
CLOVIS..........................  77  40  62  37 /   0  10   5   5
PORTALES........................  78  41  64  39 /   0  10   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  79  42  66  41 /   0  10   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  83  47  71  44 /   0   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  77  42  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  72  41  64  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-527.

&&

$$

SHY








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