Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 130542 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1142 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING DURING FORECAST PERIOD. SPOTTY SHOWERS
AND VIRGA SHOWERS CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY MORNING
BECOMING NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MOST
LIKELY FROM THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES AFTER 15Z TO 18Z GENERALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WITH RACE INTO
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AROUND 21Z...FIRST PRODUCING
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THEN INCREASING THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AFTER 00Z.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...944 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014...
.UPDATE...
REPLACING THE WINTER STORM WATCH WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
AND ADDING THE FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...A FAST-HITTING OPEN WAVE AND LIMITED
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT (NORTH VS. NE OR E). WILL LET THE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EXPIRE AT 10 PM WITH
WINDS PEAKING OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS AND ALREADY TRENDING DOWN AT
KSRR.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...308 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER INTO MONDAY...A BREAK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
POTENTIALLY MORE UNSETTLED LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND. FIRST STORM
IMPACTING THE FORECAST NOW WITH GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL. NEXT STORM WILL
HAVE A MUCH GREATER IMPACT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STORM WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEPART MONDAY BRINGING COOLER
OR COLDER AIR...WIND...DUST...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...RAIN...SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW. WHILE A QUICK HITTER...PRECIPITATION WILL BE
INTENSE FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF ECHOES ON RADAR OVER NW NM BUT NO PRECIPITATION BEING
REPORTED AT THE SURFACE YET. HAVE SEEN QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING
AS WELL. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL BUT SUDDEN STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM VIRGA BOMBS. JUST AS
FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH.

MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN ON THE SECOND STORM FOR
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A POTENT SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST INTO NM LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE IT RAPIDLY
EAST MONDAY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THOUGH IS
STILL NOT CLEAR. THE LACK OF QPF OVER THE SANGRES AND THEIR EAST
SLOPES ON MOST MODELS IS DISCONCERTING. LOCAL HI RES MODEL MANAGES
TO EEK OUT 4 TO 6 INCHES. WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS AN AREA OF
8 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE SANGRES AND ALONG THE CO BORDER TOWARD
RATON PASS. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM
WATCH WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FROM THE SANGRES EAST TO THE TX
BORDER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MARGINAL WARNING
SNOW AMOUNTS BUT PART OF THE REASONING FOR ISSUING IS DUE TO THE
SUDDEN CHANGE IN THE WEATHER. POTENT COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE
STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH BLOWING SNOW...AND
YES..EVEN BLOWING DUST PRIOR TO...OR AT THE SAME TIME AS THE SNOW.
BLOWING DUST AND SNOW WILL LIKELY GREATLY RESTRICT THE VISIBILITY.
DURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE ALL THAT LONG...6 TO 9
HOURS PERHAPS...BUT COULD BE INTENSE FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THIS
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. THIRTY TO FORTY DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROPS
WILL BE COMMON IN THE EAST AS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. ALL IN ALL
QUITE A SHOCK FROM WHAT WE AVE BEEN ENJOYING. ONE TYPE OF WEATHER
THAT WILL NOT CHANGE SUNDAY IS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

THE STORM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING. DRY AND WARMER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK STORM
WILL CROSS NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH POSSIBLE. GFS HAS A STRONGER STORM
COMING IN FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE EUROPEAN ONLY HAS
A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VIRGA AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
NW AND NC NM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE AFTN/EVE PROGRESSES. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. WETTING PRECIPITATION
IS NOT EXPECTED AND THE ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET.
ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE THINNING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES...AND THUS INCREASE MIXING AND
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING. THUS WILL LEAVE RED FLAG WARNING INTACT.
POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

HAVE UPGRADED A PORTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY. ZONES
106-109 LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS TODAY...HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN LOW...AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH WIDESPREAD 5
HAINES. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS AND THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU...HUMIDITIES AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO UPGRADE
ATTM. AFTER THE FIRST SYSTEM EXITS NM OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT PRECIP...IN ADDITION TO A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE IN
THE AFTN MAY KEEP TEMPS LOWER AND HUMIDITIES HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. THESE ARE GOOD ARGUMENTS TO KEEP ZONES 101 AND 105 IN A
WATCH ATTM...THOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY DECIDE TO CANCEL THE WATCH
ALTOGETHER.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AS AN ASSOCIATED STRONG BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT QUICKLY MOVES DOWN THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MUCH
COLDER...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING FREEZING TEMPS...AND EVEN A HARD
FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW
BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL FAVOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS FOR SOME DECENT SNOW ACCUMS.
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE...GOOD TO VERY GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NM.  FAIR
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
WEST...AND BETWEEN 15 AND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST ON
MONDAY. LESS WIND AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE ALSO ON TAP...THOUGH FAR
WESTERN NM MAY SEE HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BOUNCING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. HUMIDITIES
WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WINDS LOOK TO PICK UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT HUMIDITY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS RISE JUST ABOVE NORMAL.  WIDESPREAD 6 HAINES
IS ALSO LIKELY...THUS...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY MAKE A
RETURN TO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. MODELS DO DISAGREE
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...THUS...IF THE ECMWF IS
RIGHT...WINDS MAY BE WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED.

WHAT BECOMES OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO SCOOT ACROSS NORTHERN NM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PERHAPS PROVIDING A LITTLE
PRECIPITATION TO AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...FROM THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WESTWARD...CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO
BE ON TAP. 34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ106>109.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>515-527-528-530.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-105.

&&

$$







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