Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 242338 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
538 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER
AROUND SUNSET. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY MONDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY AT KGUP WITH GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 35KT BY 16Z.
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GUSTS
TO 40KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
INCLUDING KLVS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LCL BLDU IS LIKELY AREAWIDE DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...258 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THIS WEEK. DRY...WINDY...AND WARM WEATHER MONDAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO MUCH COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY. A FEW RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY. A POTENTIALLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOLER AND WETTER
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE LATEST NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS A VERY ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STRETCHING FROM EASTERN
ASIA ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE U.S. WEST COAST. 12Z MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AT LEAST 4 UPPER LOWS
CARVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. DUE TO
THE QUICK SUCCESSION OF WAVES THIS WILL BE A CHALLENGING PERIOD FOR
NAILING DOWN SMALL-SCALE FORECAST DETAILS EACH DAY. NONETHELESS A
VERY ACTIVE WEEK IS ON TAP WITH A ROLLERCOASTER OF TEMPERATURES...
PRECIP CHANCES...AND WINDS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS ALREADY TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IS
MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD. A 40-60KT 700-500MB JET WILL RACE EAST OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND INTERACT WITH A 992MB SURFACE LOW OVER SE
COLORADO. WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR WESTERN
NM AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND EASTERN HIGH PLAINS.
MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10F ABV NORMAL ACROSS THE PLAINS. 700MB
COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST BY LATE MONDAY AND REALLY
TAKE HOLD TUESDAY WITH VALUES AVERAGING +0C. MAX TEMPS WILL TREND
10 TO 15F BLW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. MEANWHILE
COLD/WESTERLY UNSTABLE FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL RESULT IN
SOME RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL REALLY CHILLY FOR LATE APRIL.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE DOMINATED BY HOW MUCH DECOUPLING CAN
OCCUR WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SOME AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
AND EVEN APPROACH FREEZING WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN. BRIEF
ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A NICE MODERATION TO MAX TEMPS BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW A THICK SHIELD OF
HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WAVE. THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY AGAIN AREAWIDE AS ANOTHER
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET CRUISES QUICKLY EAST OVER THE STATE.
MAX TEMPS WILL MODIFY VERY NICELY WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL.

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND THE DETAILS BECOME FUZZY BUT THE OVERALL GIST
OF THINGS WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOLER AGAIN. THE 12Z ECMWF AGREES
THE BEST WITH THE NAEFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE THAT A LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE
SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY CARVE INTO NM. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF
BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SLOSH INTO THE PLAINS. SOME
DRYLINE STORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.
700MB TEMPS ARE CHILLY FOR LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY AND MODELS ARE
CRANKING OUT SOME REALLY GOOD QPF NUMBERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND LIKELY TUESDAY BEFORE EASING UP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH
THIS WEEK.

VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TX BORDER. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT RED
FLAG WARNING. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY FAIR.

WINDS RAMP UP AGAIN MONDAY AND ARE STILL ADVERTISED TO BE STRONG
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST...NEAR
NORMAL IN CENTRAL AREAS...BUT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST. HAINES
INDICES WILL BE MOSTLY 5 TO 6. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. NO CHANGE TO THE
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST.

THIS SECOND STORM WILL TURN NORTHEAST TUESDAY...BRINGING LITTLE
PRECIPITATION...AND MORE STRONG WINDS TO THE EAST. IT WILL BE COOLER
WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...BARELY SO AT THE TEXAS BORDER. HAINES
INDICES ARE NOW SHOWN TO ONLY BE 4 TO 5 ACROSS THE EAST. WHILE WIND
AND RH VALUES WILL EASILY PRODUCE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA...THE
COOLER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO
CONSIDER. WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE AS THERE IS
STILL TIME. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FINALLY A LITTLE BREAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH LESS WIND AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RH VALUES. DESPITE THIS...CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD BE
APPROACHED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THE NEXT CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY WITH THE TROUGH CROSSING NM FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
PROVIDE SOME HOPE FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

AN ADDITIONAL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NM
FROM UT DURING NEXT WEEKEND...KEEPING DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT FOR A COUPLE
MORE DAYS.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ101-103>109.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

$$

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