Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 151719 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1119 AM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Amidst high pressure aloft, mostly clear skies and VFR conditions
will prevail along with light to moderate breezes. Some smoke and
haze will be visible from ongoing wildfires throughout New Mexico and
Arizona, but no visibility reductions of any significance are
anticipated.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...957 AM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017...
.UPDATE...
Issued heat advisories for parts of eastern NM for today and Friday.
Several days of 100+ heat at Roswell will continue through Saturday
with highs peaking near 110. This heat will spread northward into
the Tucumcari area on Friday then the remainder of east central NM
Saturday.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...518 AM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Relatively light westerly flow aloft with upper high center over Old
Mexico. Weak sfc lee trof with return flow of moisture along a line
from KROW-KTCC mixing out by 18Z. VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Blistering heat will characterize the next week with the exception
of Sunday thanks to a back door cold front. Widespread temperatures
in the 90s and 100s will be the rule as the upper level high
continues to build over the Southwest. High temperature records will
be in jeopardy, especially Saturday, the warmest day of the week. The
front on Sunday will bring some low level moisture back to the Land
of Enchantment, which should fuel a few afternoon mountain
thunderstorms Sunday through mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures will continue to climb through the end of the week as
an upper level ridge builds over the desert southwest. Saturday, the
warmest day of the week, will be brutally hot in many places with
triple digit heat. Most areas will near or break records for the
date -- and in June, records are hot! Measures should be taken to
reduce strenuous outdoor activity wherever possible.

A brief reprieve, in the form of a back door cold front, will arrive
early Sunday. Temperatures will drop 15 to 20 degrees across the
plains, though, will still be in the 80s in most locations. By
sunrise, the front looks to push through the gaps into the Rio
Grande Valley and by noon, should make it to the ContDvd. Moisture
behind the front should set the stage for a few storms Sunday
afternoon over the high terrain.

Temperatures will quickly rebound Monday and Tuesday areawide, as
the upper high builds in even stronger -- 597-599 dam, as opposed to
a 591 dam high on Saturday. Moisture trapped under the high should
recycle in the form of showers and thunderstorms over the high
terrain each day, though coverage will be minimal. Given the heat
and the expected high cloud bases, there will be potential for gusty
downburst winds with any storm that develops, and outflow boundary
collisions may help to bring precip to the lower elevations.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TO NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY...

Relatively weak zonal flow will dominate New Mexico again today then
transition to light northwesterly as the upper high center over Old
Mexico early this morning shifts into Arizona over the weekend.

A very dry and unstable air mass will persist over northern and
central New Mexico through Saturday. Little change in the forecast
for single digit humidities persisting for as many as 10 to 20
consecutive hours each day from the Pecos Valley westward to the
Arizona border, including the Middle Rio Grande Valley. Poor
overnight relative humidity recoveries will persist as well, except
for portions of the eastern plains where humidity recoveries will be
better, thanks to the nightly north and westward run of low level
moisture. While above average temperatures continue today, high
temperatures will increase slightly each day, with some near record
highs central and east forecast Friday and near record heat over all
of northern and central New Mexico Saturday. Widespread Haines of 6
through Saturday with embedded areas of super Haines forecast.

Temporary relief from some of the heat and dryness is based on the
arrival of a cold front Saturday night in the eastern plains, which
looks to push into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday. A reinforcing surge
of low level moisture is scheduled for Sunday night, this may reach
to the Contdvd or AZ border. Highs Sunday will range from 5 to
nearly 20 degrees cooler central and east, while the far west will
see little change. Minimum humidities Sunday will be higher,
breaking the extended string of single digit humidity days. Slight
chances for showers and storms are possible Sunday over mainly the
higher terrain, but expand into the plains and lower elevations as
the cells drift off the mountains and the reinforcing surface
surge take effect.

The high pressure center will drift over New Mexico next week, and
remain there for the foreseeable future. High temperatures will soar
back above average Tuesday and Wednesday. Moisture will slosh back
and forth over the east, and enough may be trapped under the ridge
to produce daily rounds of convection over the higher terrain and
east. Some of the storms may be rather dry with gusty winds,
especially over the west and central. A stronger front may impact
the east late next week, bringing a reprieve from the heat.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for the following
zones... NMZ534-538.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ538.

&&

$$



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