Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 272356 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
556 PM MDT TUE SEP 27 2016

-SHRA/TSRA activity from KGUP southward into the higher terrain
will move northwest near 10kt while dissipating thru 02Z. Mid
level cloud decks near 010 will remain in place over western NM
thru the overnight. Deeper moisture Wednesday will generate more
impactful -SHRA/TSRA along the AZ border with storm motions more
south to north. Coverage will increase farther east toward the
ContDvd aft 21Z. A thick high cloud shield will spread north over
the remainder of NM thru Wednesday.



An upper low over the far northern portion of the Gulf of
California will continue to bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms to west central New Mexico tonight and Wednesday.
This low is expected to tap moisture from what is now Tropical
Storm Roslyn Wednesday night and Thursday. This moisture is
forecast to be drawn up across the western half or so of the state
Thursday and Thursday night. Residual moisture will combine with
daytime heating to produce mainly isolated showers and
thunderstorms to most areas Friday. Drier air along with light
winds are expected over the weekend.


Closed upper low centered over the far northern Gulf of
California this afternoon. 75kt jet ahead of the low is beginning
to nose up into southwest NM with scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing across Catron and western Cibola counties. Expect these
showers/storms to gradually diminish after sunset. 18Z NAM12
coming more in line with the GFS for Wednesday afternoon. Both
models develop convection mainly along and west of the continental
divide during the afternoon with brief shower/storm activity
possible across the lower RGV during the early evening.

Weather prediction models remain in good agreement for Thursday.
NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM (Canadian) agree that the cold core
upper low to the southwest will lift northward into southern NV and
draw up the remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Roslyn Wednesday
night and Thursday. Western NM remains the favored area for
localized heavy rainfall Thursday afternoon through Thursday
night. NAM12 has backed off on producing showers/storms along the
central mountain chain Thursday afternoon. Given the swly flow
aloft and sely low level flow, expect at least isolated showers
and storms to develop Thursday afternoon from the south-central
mountains north to the Sandia/Manzano mountains then north to the

The weak remnant trough of what was once the above mentioned cold
core low is progged to shear out across the Four Corners Friday.
Residual moisture combined with good mid-level lapse rates will
likely produce isolated showers/storms across the northern third
Friday afternoon. Eastern plains remained capped until Friday
evening when a few thunderstorms could result around sunset.

Saturday is still looking like a picture perfect early October
day. Main change in the models was to speed up the upper level
closed low/trough over the PACNW for Sunday/early next week. West
winds aloft increase Sunday, ahead of this feature as it digs sewd
into the Great Basin. Westerly breezes will likely increase all
areas Sunday afternoon, especially east of the central mountain
chain. West winds increase further Sunday night as the upper
trough swings east through northern CO and southern WY. ECMWF is
~24hrs slower with the trough axis and surface cold front, brining
them through around sunrise Tuesday. Main takeaway is that
GFS/ECMWF agree that Monday and possibly Tuesday could end up
being rather windy.



A moistening trend is in play through at least Thursday due to
moisture spreading northeast across the area as the upper high
shifts southeast of New Mexico and the upper low over northwest
Mexico moves north into the Great Basin. The relocation of these
synoptic weather features will cause chances for wetting rain and
humidity to trend up through Thursday, especially across western New
Mexico. By Thursday night, humidity recovery will be excellent west
and good to excellent elsewhere. Vent rates will bounce around
during the mid week period, but will generally improve Wednesday and
Thursday compared to today.

Stronger westerlies will punch-in over the weekend and lead to a
drying/warming trend with daytime temperatures forecast above
normal. Winds will be on the uptrend as well with a deepening lee
side trough. Maximum vent rates will be good to excellent areawide
by Sunday.

A west coast trough/low is forecast to push across the
central/northern Rockies late in the weekend into early next week
after the jet stream dives south then makes and eastward turn. The
12z GFS and ECMWF handle the progression of the trough/low
differently, with the ECMWF showing strong winds aloft further
south and a deeper lee side trough meaning stronger winds for our
area. Either way, a trend toward drier and windier conditions looks
like a solid bet with at least some potential for critical fire
weather conditions Monday if the 12z ECMWF solution works-out.





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