Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 100534 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1134 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
STORM ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE BRIEF WIND SHIFTS AND MAY
CAUSE ADDITIONAL BUT SHORT LIVED SHRAS/TSRAS TO DEVELOP. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THIN BY LATE THURS MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE NEXT ROUND OF DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. STORMS WILL BE
PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHERN MTS
WITH SLOW ESE MOVEMENT ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND NE MOVEMENT ACROSS
SW NM. STORMS WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS BY LATE AFTN
THURSDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CEIL/VSBYS AND GUSTS UP TO
40KT. KLVS AND KSAF AMONG THE TERMINAL SITES FAVORED WITH
THURSDAYS STORM MOTION...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
ANY PREVAILING/TEMPO GROUP. LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTN...PROVIDING AFTN GUSTS UP TO 30KTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...301 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
RECYCLE OUT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. A DRIER PUNCH OF AIR WILL EVENTUALLY
WORKS IT WAY OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND PROVIDE LIMITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THERE. DAILY
ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE FLOW CHANGING VERY LITTLE. A COUPLE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS MAY PROVIDE A RESURGENCE IN MOISTURE LEVELS THE EARLIER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND FUEL HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...EDGED TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE DURING THE
AFTERNOON PERIODS AND TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS. THIS IS BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH LOCATION.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. ADJUSTED POPS UP SLIGHTLY IN AREAS WHERE
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION LOOKS TO BE DISTINCT AND THE STRONGEST. THIS
MAINLY IMPACTS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. LOWERED THEM SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO
BE IN UNISON WITH BRINGING DRIER AIR OVER THAT AREA.

THE UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WARM AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS FAVOR THE UPPER HIGH MOVING
NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY CENTERING OVER THE GREAT BASIN EITHER
SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THIS OPENS UP THE AREA TO A COUPLE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTS LATE WEEKEND AND DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE POTENTIALLY LOST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE A RESURGENCE OF
WETTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL BE WATCHING THE EASTERLY WAVE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE FOUND ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THIS WAVE. IF THE WAVE WERE TO MOVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
THEN WOULD NEED TO ADJUST POP/S ACCORDINGLY.

A MODERATELY STRONG LEE SFC TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEEKEND FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. SURFACE WINDS WOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
A RESULT.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING...CONSEQUENTLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN CELL MOTION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOVEMENT A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TUESDAY
AND MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE MORE STABLE
AND ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO COME OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT
OVER THE REGION...WHICH WON/T HAPPEN UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST AND CENTRAL WILL
SEE SCATTERED STORMS AND THESE WILL GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT A BIT EAST AND NORTHWARD...PUTTING IT OVER SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MEANDER
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...BUT THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD BY
LATE FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION
OF THE THETA-E AXIS OVER THE STATE BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF TO
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SLOW MOVEMENT WILL BE
LIKELY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER ALONG THE FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
BORDER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH COULD FOCUS SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT THERE.

OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE AT LEAST
GOOD...AND VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO POOR IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
OF THE WEST AND NORTH. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLOW DRIFT OF THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK. THIS PUTS AT LEAST PART OF
THE STATE UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...OPENING THE EAST TO A
VIGOROUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS WELL
AS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO ROLL OFF THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENINGS. THE FRONT COULD INSTIGATE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AS
UPSLOPE FLOW IN IT/S WAKE DEVELOPS.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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