Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 300915
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
415 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.Discussion...
Thunderstorms have persisted overnight as an MCS moving southeast
over Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, split apart and both pieces
have continued diving southeast through the Panhandles. Isentropic
lift on the 315 surface has aided in the maintenance of this system.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue development this
morning near the New Mexico/Texas state line and push east southeast
through the area. A break in activity is expected in the early
afternoon, which will allow for diabatic heating to bring more
instability to the area for another round of thunderstorms in the
late afternoon to evening. Deep layer shear is weak and PWAT values
are around 1.0, so slow moving storms could lead to localized
flooding concerns.

The models have not been consist from run to run as Friday now looks
to have the area dry slotted, so have decreased pops some but didn`t
want to fully remove until more consistency is achieved. A cold front
looks to push through the Panhandles Saturday and bring widespread
chances at showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening. Precip looks
to linger in the area Sunday morning before the front completely
pushes out of the area. The combination of a low level jet Saturday
night into Sunday and the passage of a shortwave will enhance lift
in the region. With effective bulk shear around 30 kts and MLCAPE
only around 1000J or less, storms should stay below severe levels.

Models start varying greatly after Sunday on the upper level flow
pattern, which affects the timing of the next shortwave. For now,
stayed with a model blend in the extended period. If the GFS solution
plays out, the 4th of July could see severe weather as it depicts
30 to 40kts of shear and 1500 to 2000 J of CAPE, making supercells
possible. Other models are not as optimistic on CAPE and the ECMWF
holds back the shortwave until Tuesday. What does look clear for next
week is that chances for precip start decreasing and temps will be
on the rise again with 100s back in the forecast by mid-week.

Beat

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                93  67  95  69  94 /  30  20  10  10  30
Beaver OK                  93  67  95  69  93 /  40  50  30  30  40
Boise City OK              95  64  91  65  87 /  40  40  30  30  50
Borger TX                  94  71  97  73  95 /  40  20  10  20  40
Boys Ranch TX              97  67  98  70  94 /  30  20  10  20  40
Canyon TX                  94  67  95  69  94 /  30  10   5  10  30
Clarendon TX               92  67  94  71  95 /  20  10  10  10  30
Dalhart TX                 96  64  95  66  91 /  40  30  20  30  40
Guymon OK                  95  67  94  69  90 /  40  40  20  30  40
Hereford TX                94  65  94  69  94 /  20  10   5  10  40
Lipscomb TX                92  67  96  70  93 /  40  40  20  20  30
Pampa TX                   91  67  94  68  93 /  40  20  10  20  30
Shamrock TX                93  69  95  72  96 /  30  20  10  10  30
Wellington TX              95  71  97  73  97 /  20  10  10   5  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

3/16


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