Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 031138
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
638 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE PAST FEW DAYS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH SUNSET...BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND BACKING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SPARSE FOR ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS ATTM.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BASIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE NEAR TERM.  LOW DIURNAL POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...OWING TO CONTINUED MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...COOLER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES...OCCASIONAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROFS...AND
PERSISTENCE OF SURFACE TROF.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER
EAST...WITH HIGHER 700 MB THETA-E ALSO SHIFTING EAST.  EXPECTED LACK
OF COOL POOL IN MID-LEVELS AND LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LEAD US
TO REMOVE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SUNDAY MORNING ALSO KEPT DRY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO LOWER
ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION OF LOW POPS IN EASTERN SECTIONS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND/OR SOME
SEMBLANCE OF DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE INTO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS ON
MONDAY.  EXPECTED DRY-SLOTTING MONDAY NIGHT WARRANTS REMOVAL OF POPS
FROM NORTHWEST.

HUGE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAKE FOR
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE LATER PERIODS.  HOWEVER...LOW
CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED OR INCREASED AS POLAR FRONT WILL LIKELY
BRING MOISTURE WITH IT WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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