Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 020346
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1046 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...CONVECTION MANAGED TO PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST INTO THE
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING REACHING GUYMON BEFORE DISSIPATING. WITH
SOME LINGERING STORMS FORMING ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER...HAVE HELD WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE SPILLING OVERTOP IT CAUSING MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THESE STORMS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. BIEDA

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...CLOUDS AOA 10K FT AGL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
OR NEAR TAF SITES THRU 02/14Z BECOMING 20K FT AGL. A LINGERING STORM
SOUTHWEST OF KDHT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF
SITE...BUT WILL ADDRESS WITH AMENDMENTS IF IT GETS CLOSER.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
BTWN 10 TO 20 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE BTWN 02/14Z
TO 03/01Z. BIEDA

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALREADY SEEN A FEW SHOWERS TRY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE THIS
DEVELOPMENT INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THE HOURS PROGRESS. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
HELP THIS DEVELOPMENT SPREAD. WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME STRONG
BUT A LACK OF DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY.
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS EXPECTED
WITH ANY STRONG STORM.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES PAST MIDNIGHT
BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE PRIOR TO THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. WITH THE
PANHANDLES REMAINING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES WITH A FEW STORMS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLES
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FURTHER EXPANSION OF PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO CAUSE THE UPPER PATTERN TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL
OPEN THE PANHANDLES UP TO A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SHOW THAT THIS FRONT COULD STALL ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE LIFTING
TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS POSSIBLE AT THE VERY END
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  91  66  92  67 /  10   5   0  10  10
BEAVER OK                  69  95  70  96  69 /  20   5   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              62  93  65  93  64 /  30  20  10  20  20
BORGER TX                  68  93  71  95  70 /  20   5   0   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              66  94  67  94  68 /  20   5   5  10  20
CANYON TX                  65  91  64  92  66 /  10   5   0  10  10
CLARENDON TX               66  92  66  93  67 /   0   0   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 66  94  64  94  65 /  30  10  10  20  20
GUYMON OK                  66  94  68  95  68 /  30   5  10  10  20
HEREFORD TX                65  92  65  92  65 /  10   5   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                69  93  69  94  69 /   5   0   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   66  92  69  92  66 /  10   0   0   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                68  94  68  94  68 /   0   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              68  95  68  95  70 /   0   0   0   5   0

&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&



$$

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