Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
000
FXUS64 KAMA 141129
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
529 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A messy and complicated forecast continues to be the prevailing theme
across the OK and TX Panhandles today through Monday morning. The
strong and closed upper level low pressure system seen on water vapor
satellite imagery continues to dig swd as of this writing, and is
progged to be off the nrn Baja CA coast by 12Z this morning, then
dig a bit further southeast before making the eastward turn later
today to a projected position near the nrn Gulf of CA as seen in
latest 00Z models. Precipitation has been very slow to develop so
far, largely due to dry air that intruded the region Thursday behind
a cold front and persisted into Friday. Latest radar imagery and sfc
obs suggest light freezing rain has finally began to develop in srn
TX Panhandle as the upper level low pressure system begins to exert
its influence on the region. Expect this area of precipitation to
expand and move northward today.

For tonight, periods of light rain and light freezing rain will
continue as the upper level storm system heads east to near the NM
bootheel by 12Z Sunday. Current winter weather highlights issued
earlier remain plausible. As the upper level low gets closer to our
area, strong warm air advection will likely cause most precipitation
to turn to all rain Sunday afternoon with even a threat for tstms. This
storm system is progged to track across sern NM by 00Z Monday, then
to NW OK by 12Z Monday. This projected path is a bit further
southeast compared to previous model runs. Should this verify, then
more of the area may receive accumulating snows Sunday night as the
cold core of the upper level low moves across the area. Have
conservatively included this psblty in the grids for that time
period. Snowfall accumulations Sunday night and early Monday should
remain on the light side at this time, with overall highest snowfall
accumulation potential expected to be in the northwest zones.

Dry weather and moderating temperatures are foreseen from next
Tuesday through Friday. Medium range models suggest another storm
system may impact the srn high plains sometime next weekend. However,
they disagree on all important details, so have gone with a model
consensus solution for this fcst pckg pending better agreement.

Andrade

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                35  31  39  29  46 /  90  90 100  70   5
Beaver OK                  31  27  34  28  40 /  80  90 100  90  30
Boise City OK              35  28  35  27  39 /  80  90 100  80  30
Borger TX                  35  31  39  30  46 /  90  90 100  80  10
Boys Ranch TX              37  31  39  28  45 /  90  90 100  70  10
Canyon TX                  35  32  39  29  46 /  90  90 100  70   5
Clarendon TX               35  33  42  32  49 /  90  90 100  70   5
Dalhart TX                 37  30  37  28  42 /  90  90 100  80  20
Guymon OK                  32  28  34  28  40 /  80  90 100  80  30
Hereford TX                37  33  41  29  46 /  90  90 100  60   5
Lipscomb TX                32  29  36  30  44 /  90  90 100  90  20
Pampa TX                   34  31  38  31  45 /  90  90 100  80  10
Shamrock TX                34  31  42  33  49 /  90  90 100  80   5
Wellington TX              35  33  45  34  52 /  90  90 100  80   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for the following zones:
     Hemphill...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Roberts...Wheeler.

     Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST Sunday for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...
     Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson...Moore...
     Oldham...Potter...Randall...Sherman.

OK...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for the following zones:
     Beaver...Texas.

     Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST Sunday for the following
     zones: Cimarron.


&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.