172
FXUS64 KAMA 242247
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
547 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

-Thunderstorms will be possible throughout the coming week.

-Repeat rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rain will result in
 flooding chances, especially for the western Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

High pressure over the Tennessee and Ohio Valley will slowly
expand west and continue to isolated that corridor of moisture to
the western Panhandles, and into New Mexico. Showers and storms
already popping up in the western Panhandles this afternoon. But
overall, the PWAT`s continue to be near the climatological maximum
and with all the recent moisture as well as high dewpoints and
the 18z sounding is showing very little ML CIN with about
750-1000 J/kg of ML CAPE, it`s no surprise that we are getting
isolated storms popping up in the central Panhandles as well.
Given the very moist sounding and the overall high pressure that
we`re on the edge of, the concerns with the storms mainly fall on
the hydro side of things, and that some localized flooding could
be an issue if certain areas pick up enough rain, or areas that
have already been hit with heavy rain in the past 24 to 48 hours
pick up more rain. The story remains very similar tomorrow, only
that most of the main moisture swath will be in New Mexico and
we`ll have to watch for just the pop up thunderstorm potential,
like we are seeing today in the central Panhandles. Still, the
best chances will be in the west tomorrow, and the main concern
will continue to be on the hydro side of things. Tomorrow night
we`ll have to keep an eye on as there appears to be a disturbance
tracking across the Panhandles that could trigger some overnight
storms, but nothing yet added to the forecast.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

As we head toward the end of the work week the ridge will shift
further east and we`ll start to get into more of a zonal flow, but
with subtle disturbances expected to move through under the
southwest to westerly flow transition, we expect another round of
afternoon/evening showers and storms across much of the Panhandles
on Thursday. NBM is a little light on the chances, but certainly
would expect a 30 to 50% chance of showers/storms on Thursday.
Friday continues to be highly in question. We move to a more zonal
flow, but the heights do expand a bit more and can`t make out any
definitive disturbance. That being said, we still have lingering
low level moisture, and models may be underplaying the convective
temperatures if they pull the surface dewpoints too low. So NBM
has no pops for Friday, but this is a very low confidence low pops
scenario, and if we can get a subtle disturbance move through,
than would expect a better chance for scattered storms on Friday.
Saturday through Monday, we return the moisture as southerly flow
kicks back in and that monsoonal flow returns. Expect an uptick in
precipitation chances on Saturday, with the potential for more
widespread showers and storms Monday. Severe threats, while can`t
be ruled out, look pretty low. This will be more focused again on
the hydro side of things.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

A nice moisture stream will continue to flow over NM into the
northwestern combined Panhandles. This will keep thunderstorm
potential in the northwestern combined Panhandles, mainly for
KDHT and KGUY. Outside of thunderstorms VFR conditions are
expected. Be prepared to see periods of MVFR to LIFR if a
thunderstorm forms. Even showers that are heavy rain producers
may impacts KDHT or KGUY from about 04Z to 07Z. Other than that,
expect VFR conditions with south to southwesterly winds up to 15
kts.

36

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...36