National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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FXUS64 KAMA 052347 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
547 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO CIGS AND VSBYS. A LIGHT SNOW BAND IS AFFECTING KDHT AND
KGUY WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TO KAMA. HAVE INCLUDED SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS CYCLE AT KGUY AND KDHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
CIGS SHOULD FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS
TEMPS COOL FURTHER AND DEWPOINTS RISE A LITTLE. THE THREAT OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIG
AND VSBY FCSTS...AMENDMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS TRENDS
UNFOLD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT...DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO LIMIT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE REGION. INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING THE LAST BIT OF
FORCING AND THUS THE LAST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOW WITH THIS ROUND.
STILL LOOKING AT THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS.

TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...BUT WITH
STILL LIMITED MOISTURE...AND LIMITED LIFT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN TRACE SNOW AMOUNTS.

SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...MUCH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE COULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING POSSIBLE. THE
DOWNSIDE IS THAT THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALSO BE THE PRIME LOCATION FOR
THE DRY SLOT. HOWEVER...MOST MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND POSSIBLY THE FAR NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE COULD REMAIN IN OR NEAR THE COLD SECTOR...THUS HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO SEE SNOW AS THE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY/S RUNS IN SHOWING AIR MASS MODIFICATION...AND SOME MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO FOR A
MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

JOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
VERY COLD WEATHER WILL HELP TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 30
PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PRECLUDING ANY ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

JOHNSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$
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