Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 120908
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
308 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Fairly uneventful weather on tap for the next seven days.  No
precipitation or excessive winds are expected.

Dry northwest flow aloft will continue through at least Tuesday
night.  GFS and ECMWF develop a transitory closed low which could
pass near or through the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles Wednesday
night and Thursday.  Ensembles depict a broad shortwave trof,
which seems more likely.  GFS, EC, and CMC do however, forecast a
shortwave trof for Day 9, Saturday, beyond the scope of this
forecast, which may bring an opportunity for precipitation or
(more likely) wind.

Cold post-frontal surface ridge slips east of forecast area today,
while a closed surface low develops over eastern New Mexico this
afternoon.  This will result in a wind shift line moving into
northwest sections.  Increasing baroclinicity tonight effectively
results in a secondary cool surge, making Saturday cooler than
today.  Airmass modifies on Sunday, with highs back in the 50s.

Next backdoor cold front on Monday holds highs below 40 in most
sections, with Tuesday colder still.  Warmup begins Wednesday
with highs on Thursday above 50 in most sections. 03

Cockrell

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Light to moderate south and southwest winds will prevail today,
until a wind shift line moves into northwest sections this
afternoon.  Light east and northeast winds will prevail tonight.
Light to moderate south and southwest winds resume on Saturday.
No elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected
through Thursday as relative humidities remain well above
necessary thresholds.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                54  15  42  22  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  40  12  35  17  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              55  17  47  23  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  51  16  42  26  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              57  17  46  20  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  56  16  45  20  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               49  17  40  18  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 57  19  46  22  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  48  14  41  23  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                60  18  46  20  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                44  13  35  21  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   48  14  39  22  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                45  17  37  19  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              45  19  39  19  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

16/03



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