Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 280335 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1035 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AT DHT AND GUY IN
THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH SOUTHERLY AT
THE AMA TAF SITE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

AVIATION...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH PAST
THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES SWITCHING THE WINDS THERE AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A PERSISTENT AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME DEAMPLIFICATION LATE IN THE WEEK.
12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD 596+ DM HIGH IN THE GREAT BASIN
REGION WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF NEAR 20 DM EXTENDING NORTH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST JUST TO GIVE PERSPECTIVE ON HOW AMPLIFIED
THE CURRENT PATTERN IS. IN CONTRAST...THE EASTERN CONUS IS
EXPERIENCING PERSISTENT EAST COAST TROUGHING. THIS PLACES OUR REGION
IN MEAN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DIURNAL MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL
FORM DAILY AND APPROACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MEAN FLOW
TRAJECTORIES SHOULD KEEP THIS MOSTLY WEST OF THE NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

WEAK DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE AND TIME SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE FLOW WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC ENHANCEMENTS TO CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. NAM IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH A PV ANOMALY MOVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GFS
COMPARATIVELY WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THIS FEATURE. SURFACE
REFLECTION IS WEAK BUT SUBTLE FORCING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
NECESSITATES KEEPING LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE NAM
SOLUTION.

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SOME WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS ALONG ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL TRAVERSE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
DETAILS WITH WAVES ALOFT WILL INFLUENCE TIMING/BEHAVIOR OF THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE
EAST TO WEST ORIENTED BOUNDARY TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE AND SOME INDICATIONS OF
POOLING OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS AND INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS MEAN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH PREPOSITIONS FURTHER
WEST AND NORTH. A CLIMATOLOCIAL 20-30 POP SEEMS WARRANTED IN THIS
SCENARIO.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/88




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