Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 282324
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
624 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PANHANDLES. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE DALHART
TAF SITE BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z FRIDAY...AND MAY POSSIBLY AFFECT THE GUYMON
TAF SITE BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AT THIS TIME. VFR
CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION. SOUTH WINDS 10
TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST 10
TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 04Z TO 08Z FRIDAY...AND THEN NORTH AND NORTHEAST 10
TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AFTER 12Z TO 15Z
FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1221 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR IN AND NEAR CONVECTION AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 03Z TO 05Z FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS OR 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 08Z TO 10Z FRIDAY...AND THEN
NORTHERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER 10Z
TO 14Z FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

AVIATION...

LATEST 11-3.9 IR SATELLITE SHOWS EVIDENCE OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
HEREFORD AWOS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MVFR CEILINGS. KAMA AND KDHT
COULD BRIEFLY SEE MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING BUT PROBABILITY IS
RELATIVELY LOW. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STORMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY IMPACT KGUY THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MCS IS FINALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME MORE HEAVY RAINFALL
TO PLACES THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES EARLY SATURDAY...
WHICH WILL TAKE THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS FORECAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME MINOR
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THIS RIDGE WHICH COULD HELP SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PRAIRIE DOG TOWN FORK
OF THE RED RIVER NEAR WAYSIDE AND FOR THE CANADIAN RIVER NEAR
CANADIAN. THESE RIVERS WILL SLOWLY RECEDE TODAY...BUT THEY COULD GO
BACK UP IF MORE HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS. THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ALSO RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT MOST OF THIS FELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SALT FORK OF THE RED RIVER/S BASIN.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.


&&

$$

11/99




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