Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 171746
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1246 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST THE DRYLINE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT AND SO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
MIGHT APPROACH KAMA AND KGUY. THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE CERTAIN AT
KDHT. STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA
AT THIS TIME.  INFLUX OF DRY AIR WITH PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION TODAY IN WESTERN SECTIONS...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING EXPECTED IN EASTERN SECTIONS.  WITH RECCOVERY OF AIRMASS
TODAY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
SECTIONS...OWING TO SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLOW TREK TO THE EAST TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE DEVELOPING INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.  LOW POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY...WHERE COLD AIR AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR CENTER OF
LOW MORE LIKELY TO RESIDE.

EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY.  MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESUMING TUESDAY...BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES EXIST
REGARDING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND QUANTITY OF MOISTURE RETURN.  HAVE KEPT
LOW THUNDERSTORM POPS GOING FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
IN SPITE OF WETTING RAINS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT...DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE
9 TO 12 PERCENT RANGE TODAY WILL PROMOTE A RAPID DRYING POTENTIAL
WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  ACROSS THE
WESTERNMOST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA.  NO
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

17/05




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