Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 212332
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
632 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
Cold front has pushed well south of all terminals.  North surface
winds diminish during the early evening and will trend to
northwest by midnight.  Mid-level clouds currently overhead will
dissipate tonight as downward motions prevail following passage of
sharp mid-level trof.  Clear sky expected on Sunday with
southwest surface winds resuming for the afternoon as next surface
trof develops over eastern New Mexico.  No visibility
restrictions expected.  VFR forecast continues next 24 hours.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 222 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Surface high over northwest Utah is expected to move and expand
southeast into eastern New Mexico and the western Panhandles by
sunrise Sunday morning. The airmass associated with this high has
dew points in the teens and 20s.  Therefore, if this air mass
spreads across our area, then this dry air and clear skies could
allow for excellent radiational cooling tonight.  Have gone ahead
and issued a Freeze Warning for the western and central Oklahoma
Panhandle and the northwest Texas Panhandle with a Frost Advisory
south and east of the warning to include the southwest, central, and
northeast Texas Panhandle and the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle.

The Panhandles will be in a northwest flow aloft as a low pressure
develops over the eastern U.S. and high pressure builds across the
western U.S.  This northwest flow will bring an occasional cold
front through the Panhandles this week.

But, the strongest cold front is expected to move through the region
Thursday or Thursday night. Some freezing temperatures along with
some possible light winter precipitation may move in behind this
front, but the models do not agree on how cold this airmass will be
and they do not agree on the precipitation chances.  So for now have
kept pops low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                34  68  45  74  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  34  71  42  74  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              29  69  45  69  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  38  71  48  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              33  71  40  77  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  33  69  43  75  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               40  71  46  79  44 /   5   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 30  70  43  74  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  31  71  43  73  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                33  70  42  77  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                38  71  45  76  43 /   5   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   37  70  47  77  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                44  72  46  79  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              45  73  45  82  45 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Sunday for the
     following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Deaf Smith...
     Hansford...Hutchinson...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...
     Potter...Randall.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Sunday for the
     following zones: Dallam...Hartley...Sherman.

OK...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Sunday for the
     following zones: Beaver.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Sunday for the
     following zones: Cimarron...Texas.

&&

$$

03/29


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