Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 191753
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1253 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT KDHT...KGUY...AND
KAMA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR VIS/CIG
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE 21-04 TIMEFRAME...ESPECIALLY NEAR KAMA. HAVE INTRODUCED
THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY OF KAMA...BUT HAVE NOT YET INDICATED A
REDUCTION TO MVFR. OTHERWISE...EXPECTED INTERMITTENT CLOUDS AOA 8-10
KFT AND BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE 18-00Z POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS THAT
SUGGEST SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.

CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZING SHIELD OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS APPEARS WELL HANDLED BY THE TTU-WRF...AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRONOUNCED LOBE OF FORCING DEPICTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH RES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE TTU-WRF...ADVECT THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN...WESTERN...AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE 20-23Z TIMEFRAME. THUS...HAVE INCREASED GRIDDED POPS
TOWARD 50 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND CHANCED WORDING
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LINDLEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NICE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT FOLKS AROUND HERE WOULD NOT MIND FINDING SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF EASTER EGGS THIS WEEKEND.

BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...HALF THE BATTLE IN GETTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IS
ALREADY WON. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. DO THINK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT IN ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
SW AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH
EACH MODEL RUN.

LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST. FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL
BEGIN CLEARING AS AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SINCE THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SO FAR NORTH
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. BY THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL UPPER FORCING TO THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO FAR
EAST SO ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SO HAVE LEFT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. A WARM
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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