Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 212319

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
519 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

VFR conditions should prevail for the majority of the 00Z TAF
cycle with brief periods of lower ceilings as a cold front slides
into the Panhandles. There is also a small chance for light precip
at the terminals but these should have little impact.
Northwesterly winds will prevail through the overnight hours and
remain in the 20kt range.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 445 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/

The upper level low has moved from the four corners area to the
northwest corner of the Panhandles. The tight pressure gradient
has provided another windy day for the area; however, not as windy
as expected and so have cancelled wind highlights after 6 PM,
except for Beaver County tonight which could still see some breezy
conditions. The low will skim over the northern Panhandles and
place the area in northwest flow aloft. As the low lifts eastward,
ridging will begin to fill into the western CONUS and maintain the
dry northwest flow through the remainder of the week.

By midweek, a mid-level shortwave slowly moving across northwest
Mexico, which may or may not close off depending on the model,
will begin to lift northeasterly towards the area. As high
pressure shifts eastward over the Great Plains, the shortwave
will get picked up by the main flow and get dragged across the
southern Panhandles. These two features will allow us to have
southwest flow aloft, but we will be unlikely to see any precip.
The next longwave trough makes its way quickly into the area on
Friday and returns the northwest flow aloft.


Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible for portions to
all of the combined Panhandles for Monday afternoon. Then on
Wednesday, there is a brief possibility for elevated conditions in
the western Panhandles. On Thursday, most of the area could see
elevated to briefly critical conditions, and Friday afternoon will
be similar. A cold front will move through Friday night and cause
a wind shift as well as raise RH values for the weekend.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Donley...Gray...

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...Oldham...Potter...

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Donley...Gray...Moore...Sherman.

OK...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron.

     Wind Advisory until 5 AM CST Monday for the following zones:



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