Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 240620 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
120 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.Aviation...
For the 06Z TAFS, little change to previous aviation AFD reasoning.
Latest round of showers and tstms currently moving thru nrn parts of
the forecast area and affecting KGUY and KDHT early in this fcst
cycle. Expect storms to diminish in coverage before sunrise this
morning. Surface winds will increase and become gusty at all terminal
sites by mid to late this morning as the pressure gradient tightens
in response to a developing sfc trof of low pressure over the plains
of ern CO and ern NM. Winds are expected to diminish around sunset
Friday evening.

Andrade

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 612 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

Aviation...
For the 00Z TAFS, the next round of showers and tstms currently over
sern CO and ern NM will continue tracking eastward this evening and
affect at least parts of the OK and TX Panhandles. KGUY and KDHT have
the greatest threat of being impacted, and have retained tempo group
for TSRA at both sites later this evening and tonight. The chance for
tstms at KAMA is lower, and have kept previous fcstr`s idea of VCTS
at KAMA later this evening and tonight. Expect storms to diminish in
coverage late tonight into early Friday morning. Surface winds will
increase and become gusty at all terminal sites by mid to late Friday
morning as the pressure gradient tightens in response to a developing
sfc trof of low pressure over the plains of ern CO and ern NM.

Andrade

Prev Discussion... /Issued 221 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

Short Term...Tonight...
Short-term high-resolution models continue to depict development of
scattered thunderstorms this evening, with highest coverage across
northwest and northern sections. Instability remains highest across
these areas and weak shortwave trof is expected to help release same
as it arrives from the west. Outflow boundary currently lying across
northeast corner of forecast area offers an area of slightly enhanced
surface convergence. Development low-level jet this evening should
sustain updrafts. Any thunderstorms persisting into the early morning
hours should be of lesser intensity and coverage as low-level flow
becomes more southwesterly.

Cockrell

Long Term...Friday through Wednesday...
Not much change in the forecast package. With weak flow in the upper
levels, timing out of shortwaves as they move through the north
branch of the jet stream will be on a day to day basis. These waves
will control the pops each day and how much of the area will see
precip. As the upper low in Mexico continues its path northward into
Texas, it will continue to feed moisture to the area. Between the
highs in the lower 90s and the dew points in the upper 50s and lower
60s, the air will continue to feel somewhat muggy. Models have a
decent consensus with nothing showing one to be better than another,
so have stuck with a model blend for now.

Beat

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$



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