Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 040317
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1017 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE PANHANDLES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...MOSTLY WEST TO NORTH WINDS VEERING AND BECOMING NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST BY 00Z THURSDAY...5 TO 15 KNOTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. NORTH
AND NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PASSING UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A QUICK WARMUP IS THEN STILL EXPECTED FOR
TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND. DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW.

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. HAVE GONE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT/S LOWS AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.

GOEHRING

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE FROM TODAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY...MEANING THAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WIDESPREAD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S
ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO MEAN A BREAK
FROM PRECIP UNTIL IT MOVES EAST OF THE PANHANDLES OVER THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE LOW OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND A SURFACE HIGH MOVING TOWARD THE GULF COAST WILL SLOWLY
DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO THIS REGION. ALL CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND EAST OF A DRYLINE ON SATURDAY...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE
DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY EVENING. MID-50S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE EASTERN HALF BY THAT TIME...WHILE A 100KT JET STREAK EDGES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A MODEST CAP MAY BE FOUND EAST OF THE DRYLINE
SATURDAY...THOUGH DECENT HEATING AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SEE STORMS DEVELOP. MLCAPE OF NEAR 1000-1500
J/KG SHOULD BE AVAILABLE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH 40-60 KTS OF
0-6KM SHEAR EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY SUNDAY 00Z. THEREFORE
AS IT STANDS NOW...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY EVENING. THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RETREAT
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY...GIVEN THE POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF SATURDAY WEATHER ON THE
ATMOSPHERE. ALSO A MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN DRYLINE SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST OF THE PANHANDLES THAT DAY. HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON
SUNDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE REACHING THE PANHANDLES FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY...WITH THE POLAR FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FOLLOWING A
SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

NF

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                44  76  48  84  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  44  79  47  85  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              42  75  45  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  46  79  51  85  55 /   5   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              43  78  47  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  42  78  47  84  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               46  78  51  82  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 41  76  45  83  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  44  77  48  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                41  77  47  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                44  78  49  84  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   45  76  49  83  53 /   5   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                47  79  50  82  54 /   5   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              49  81  51  83  54 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/10



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