Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 290328 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1028 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MONDAY MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT BELIEVE AT THIS POINT THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AVIATION...

00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE 10KTS OR UNDER FOR THE PERIOD FOR KAMA AND KGUY. KDHT
WILL ALSO HAVE LITE WINDS BUT COULD EXPERIENCE SOME GUSTS UP TO 19KTS
AFTER 15Z. KDHT AND KAMA HAVE A CHANCE AT SOME PRECIP BUT SINCE THE
CHANCE IS CLOSE TO THE END OF THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME TO TIME IT OUT. KGUY SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BEAT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. THE OVERALL
PATTERN OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH FROM ABOUT MID WEEK ONWARD
THERE WILL BE SOME ALTERATIONS THAT HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR AREA.

A WEAK FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. CU/TCU NEAR THE BOUNDARY IS BEING MONITORED BUT SO FAR
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED IN NEW MEXICO. ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK PV ANOMALY MOVING SOUTH INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY JUSTIFYING RETENTION OF LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST
OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH UPPER 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WHILE A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THEREAFTER ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS RANGE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE IN A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS AS UPPER HIGH DRIFTS BACK EASTWARD. DRY WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/16




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