Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 150845
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
345 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Southwest flow aloft is anticipated to persist over the Panhandles
through the next 24 hours. This pattern will continue to allow
embedded shortwaves in the upper flow to move across the area to
spark showers and thunderstorms. The early morning convection will
likely persist past sunrise but we do expect to see a lull in
convective activity around midday. This lull will be short-lived
as the influence of the next shortwave emanating out of central
New Mexico by the early evening. Models show the west recovering
enough for CAPE to build into the 2000 J/kg - 3000 J/kg range.
Deep layer shear of 20-25kt will continue to be a limiting factor
for the overall organization of convection. The presence of DCAPE
on the order of 1000-1800 J/kg keeps the potential for downbursts
as a potential hazard. Since there has been very little chance in
the expected PWATs, it`s no surprise that heavy rain which could
result in localized flooding and flash flooding will remain a
hazard. Storms that develop will be ushered eastward with the
initial shortwave through the overnight hours Tuesday, but a
longwave trough sweeping across the High Plains will help to bring
an end to convective activity shortly after the Wednesday morning
commute.

The upper trough which will help to end convection Wednesday
morning will also send a boundary across the Panhandles. This
will help to keep our rain chances low through the better part of
the daylight hours Wednesday. The return of precip comes Wednesday
evening initially along the stalled boundary across the south
before mountain convection sneaks into the west early Thursday
morning. It is possible that we may not see the initial storms
impact the southern Texas Panhandle should the boundary move
sufficiently southward. For this forecast, have kept low end PoPs
across the southeast. Zonal flow aloft returns Thursday and
persists through the approaching weekend. This will open the
Panhandles once again to passing embedded shortwaves which will
keep rain chances in the forecast throughout this time period.
Should the timing of the shortwaves sync with peak heating then
strong to marginally severe storms can not be ruled out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                91  67  89  66  89 /  40  50  10  20  20
Beaver OK                  97  68  90  65  91 /  30  50  10  10  20
Boise City OK              90  62  84  61  86 /  50  50  10  10  20
Borger TX                  93  70  91  67  91 /  40  50  10  10  20
Boys Ranch TX              93  66  90  65  90 /  50  50  10  10  20
Canyon TX                  90  66  89  66  90 /  50  50  10  10  20
Clarendon TX               90  69  93  69  91 /  30  50  20  20  20
Dalhart TX                 93  66  87  63  88 /  50  50  10  10  20
Guymon OK                  94  66  89  64  89 /  50  50  10  10  20
Hereford TX                91  66  89  64  90 /  50  50  10  10  20
Lipscomb TX                95  70  92  66  91 /  30  50  20  20  20
Pampa TX                   93  69  91  66  90 /  30  50  10  20  20
Shamrock TX                92  72  93  70  92 /  30  40  20  20  20
Wellington TX              93  73  95  72  94 /  30  40  20  20  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/14



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