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000
FXUS64 KAMA 190138 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
838 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED OVER THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. WITH THE LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY...DO NOT EXPECT
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO AFFECT THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. THUS HAVE GONE AND
CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 171 THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT. HAVE
ALSO REMOVED POPS FOR TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK
SO ONLY MINOR GRID ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN
SENT.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH
THE SETTING SUN AND THEN THEY WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY BY LATE EVENING
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE TAF SITES. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP ON SUNDAY INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS.

GOEHRING

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS BLOWING UP IN FAR ERN COUNTIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SFC
DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TORNADO WATCH 171 IN EFFECT UNTIL
11 PM THIS EVENING. KEPT POPS IN THRU THE EVENING HOURS IN THAT AREA.
REMAINDER OF FCST AREA SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS TSTMS WILL HEAD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS STATES SUN AND MON WITH MINOR EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING
ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FAR NRN COUNTIES FOR
SUN AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...MOST
MODELS ARE DRY OR KEEP MAIN PRECIP SHIELD NORTH OF FCST AREA BECAUSE
OF TOO MUCH WESTERLY FLOW. DITTO FOR MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DECIDED ON
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS BY RESTRICTING SLGT CHC POPS
TO NRN ZONES ONLY.

TUE THRU WED SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS TX AND OK PNHDLS AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS EWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. UA PATTERN AMPLIFIES LATER NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVG ACROSS SRN PLAINS TUE THRU THURSDAY. HAVE RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS
THU AND THU NIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF
UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVERHEAD LONGER AS PER SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS...THEN POPS CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED. ALSO KEPT IN SLGT CHC
POPS FRI INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS PER COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND
ECMWF. AGAIN...IF RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ON LONGER OVER OUR FCST AREA THAN
PROGGED...POP THREAT WOULD BE REDUCED. TIME WILL TELL.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. ELEVATED TO MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN SUNDAY TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DUE TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG WITH FORECAST
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...
     GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...
     OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/05