Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 252115
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
415 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.Discussion...
An upper level low is spinning over the Big Bend area. An increase in moisture
is seen on water vapor streaming across Southern and Central Texas
and creeping into the Texas Panhandle. At the surface, a trough and
a weak frontal boundary are converging across Southeastern
Colorado/Southwestern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms will continue
developing across that area and into the northwestern portion of
Panhandles. Severe potential today will be limited mainly by a lack
of deep layer shear, but a few storms could become strong to
marginally severe with damaging wind gusts the main threat. Heavy
rainfall is also a possibility as storms will be slow moving and
should be fairly efficient rainfall producers. Beyond just diurnal
influenced convection, chances will linger during the overnight hours
with the proximity of the boundary and a slight increase in low-level
shear.

Beyond the next 24 hours, the forecast remains largely unchanged. The
upper level low will remain across West Texas through Monday. Rain
chances will remain in the forecast with the proximity of the low,
and have kept highest chances favoring diurnal trends. Severe storms
still don`t appear too likely given the leak of deep layer shear,
but the possibility for mainly damaging winds and for locally heavy
rainfall will remain. By Monday night and into Tuesday, upper level
ridging tries to setup across the western US and puts the Panhandles
in a northwesterly flow scenario. This will keep precipitation
chances in the forecast through the end of the week. High
temperatures will be a bit cooler as the thermal ridge fails to set
up as strongly as it has the last few weeks, and also from lingering
cloud cover from any precipitation.

Elsenheimer

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                69  89  65  88  67 /  20  50  40  50  40
Beaver OK                  71  90  68  91  67 /  40  50  40  30  30
Boise City OK              66  83  63  86  65 /  60  40  30  20  20
Borger TX                  71  91  70  90  69 /  20  50  40  40  40
Boys Ranch TX              69  90  66  89  67 /  30  50  30  40  30
Canyon TX                  69  92  65  90  66 /  20  40  40  50  40
Clarendon TX               71  89  68  89  68 /  10  40  30  40  50
Dalhart TX                 67  87  64  88  65 /  60  50  40  30  30
Guymon OK                  69  88  66  89  66 /  50  50  30  30  30
Hereford TX                68  92  64  89  66 /  20  40  40  50  40
Lipscomb TX                71  90  68  89  68 /  20  50  40  40  40
Pampa TX                   70  89  66  88  67 /  20  50  50  50  50
Shamrock TX                73  91  69  91  70 /   5  40  30  40  50
Wellington TX              74  92  71  93  71 /   5  40  20  30  50

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/18



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