Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 161702

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1102 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the 18Z TAF issuance.
Southerly winds have already begun to pick up into the 15 to 20kt
range and are expected to remain in this range through the
afternoon. Winds will decrease around sunset and remain light
until a cold front switches them out of the north overnight
tonight. Given the orientation of the front, KDHT will see this
wind shift first then followed by KGUY and KAMA. There is some
indication that a low stratus could develop post-front at KGUY but
confidence isn`t high enough to mention in prevailing.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 239 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017/

Upper level low over northern Mexico will weaken as it lifts
northeast across West Texas today and tonight and then it will move
into Kansas by Sunday morning. As this upper low approaches the
Panhandles and heights fall today it will help to tighten the
pressure gradient and this will allow for south to southwest winds
around 25 mph with higher gusts. These winds along with somewhat
drier air near the surface will cause elevated fire weather

Another upper level low will drop south into far northwest Mexico by
Sunday afternoon. This upper low is now slower than earlier
expected, so have taken the pops out for Sunday night for the
southern Texas Panhandle.  This system is not expected to move
across eastern New Mexico and West Texas until Tuesday. The models do
not agree on the track or the strength of this system and also do
not agree on whether or not we get precipitation. For now, will leave
any pops out of the forecast and will wait for better agreement.

A strong upper level short wave trough is then expected to dive
southeast across the Panhandles Thursday and Thursday night. This
system will have some Canadian air with it, so temperatures should
be back below normal Thursday through Saturday. It is unclear again
on whether this system will bring any precipitation with it. The
model consensus at this point suggests to leave the forecast dry.

Will continue with the Fire Danger Statement for elevated fire
weather conditions across the Panhandles. 20 foot winds should be
around 20 mph with relative humidity values falling into the 15 to
25 percent range.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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