Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 291733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1233 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

18Z TAFs - On and off showers and thunderstorms will impact the TAF
sites through the afternoon and evening hours. Have the best timing
in there for now, but it will likely change as confidence is low in
the persistence and scattered nature of coverage. Winds will
generally favor an easterly to southeasterly direction and less than
15kts outside of convection. Medium to high confidence that VFR
conditions will continue through tomorrow afternoon outside of
convection too, although KGUY could see some MVFR cigs/vsbys early
Saturday morning.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 421 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

Showers and thunderstorms are currently pushing through portions
of the TX/OK Panhandles as a weak shortwave moves through the
downstream side of the desert SW upper ridge per water vapor
imagery. This upper level feature will continue southeast through
the early morning hours moving away from our zones by 15z. Fine
scale boundaries left over from this mornings convection along
with a lee low over the area will help aid in sfc moisture
convergence this afternoon and evening resulting in another round
of thunderstorms. The widest coverage of storms will largely
depend on where the stationary boundary resides at the time of max
insolation. Current thinking is somewhere along or just north of
the I-40 corridor. Once storms initiate... MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg and 25-35kts of effective bulk shear will be
sufficient for a few strong to low- end severe multicells and
perhaps some supercellular structures. Storms should push to the
southeast through the evening based on continued northwesterly
flow aloft. There is some uncertainty how long the clouds from
this mornings convection will linger...which may keep max temps
lower than guidance and reduce max buoyancy.

Going into Saturday...the upper level ridge continues slowly
pushing back eastward. Still think a few diurnally driven storms
could get into our western zones Saturday afternoon although there
is disagreement amongst the numerical guidance. Otherwise...the
rest of the weekend into next week looks mostly dry as the ridge
begins to amplify some and move over the Southern Plains. Our
western zones could see isolated storms towards the middle and end
of the week. Temperatures will be on the rise with many locations
approaching the triple digit mark by Monday and Tuesday.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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