Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 231124
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
624 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.Aviation...
VFR conditions prevail at all terminals to begin the 12z TAF cycle.
Lingering showers will continue to move eastward across the
Panhandles for the first few hours of the TAF. While they are not
anticipated to directly impact the terminal, they will be in the
vicinity of KGUY until roughly 16z. A lull in convective activity
should last through the better part of the day before storms initiate
around 21z to 22z this afternoon. Storms will be possible for all
terminals but confidence on timing is too low to include in
prevailing conditions.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 401 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

Discussion...
MCV over the western Oklahoma Panhandle will continue to slowly move
to the east this morning.  Showers and thunderstorms may continue
through the morning with the help of this MCV.  More showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop back to the northwest of the
CWA this afternoon over the mountains of southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico. These showers and storms will then move across
mainly the northern CWA late this afternoon and tonight.

A broad upper level ridge will lie west to east across much of the
southern U.S. through the weekend. The Panhandles will be on the
northern side of this ridge. A weak zonal flow aloft will bring
upper level short wave troughs across the region from time to time.
These short waves will combine with moisture and instability across
the area to help spark daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.
At this time, it appears that the best overall chance of showers and
storms will be across the northern half of the CWA further away from
the center of the ridge.

Monday and beyond will be dominated by a northwest flow aloft as the
upper level ridge repositions itself over the central Rockies.  This
northwest flow will bring showers and thunderstorms this way from
the mountains of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico everyday
through the rest of the forecast.  Each day will be different as
some days the showers and storms will only likely make it into the
northwest CWA and other days the showers and storms may make it all
the way across the region.  It will  likely depend on whether an
upper level short wave in involved or not.

Temperatures will be right around or just above normal through this
forecast.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15



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