Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 191046 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
546 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH OF AMA OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE CLOUDS OR
FOG WILL FORM OVER AMA...BUT THERE COULD BE IFR CONDITIONS NOT TOO
FAR AWAY. DHT AND GUY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET
GUSTY BY AFTERNOON AND THEN THEY WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET TO 10
KNOTS OR LESS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY GET CLOSE TO THE AMA TAF SITE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BELIEVE THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY SPARSE...SO
WILL NOT MENTION THEM IN THE TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF AUGUST.

A FEW SHOWERS WERE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AID FROM A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIPPLE RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK LLJ. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO WANE BY AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE AREA THEN LIKELY REMAINING
DRY TODAY AND TODAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
HOWEVER...NAMELY THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...AS
WELL AS THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES NEAR THE NM STATE LINE. A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR ABILENE MAY WOBBLE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BRING WITH IT SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE...TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK VERY
LIMITED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE NM STATE LINE CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
RIDGING...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LEE TROUGH STARTS TO DEEPEN.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS FLOW
ORIENTATION WILL HELP PULL SOME MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A LEE TROUGH DRAPED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...WILL BRING A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR EAST...AND A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS AT LEAST
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA...WITH CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL PRECLUDE THE THREAT FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW
PULSE STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO THE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS TIME.

A COLD FRONT IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AROUND THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY ADVANCES
EASTWARD...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON ITS TIMING AND
STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL SPREAD LOW POPS SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TRIM TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK BENEATH MORE PRONOUNCE UPPER TROUGHING...WHEREAS THE
GFS QUICKLY LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES MORE
RIDGING ALOFT. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...PRECIP
CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER FUELS
REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
CURRENT STATE OF FUELS WILL MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS REACHING THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/08





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