Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 261139 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
639 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ISOLD TO SCT MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER PARTS
OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENUF AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL SITES.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCT LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED DURG THIS FCST CYCLE...MAINLY ACROSS
NRN ZONES. KGUY AND KDHT MAY BE IMPACTED BY STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO WHETHER ANY PARTICULAR
TERMINL SITE WILL BE IMPACTED BY STORMS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT DUE TO
OVERALL ANTICIPATED ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCT COVERAGE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES BUT SHOULD...LIKE YESTERDAY...BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BEFORE 12Z TODAY. ISOLATED MAY STILL LINGER PAST 12Z
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. UPPER HIGH OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY
WILL SHIFT EAST BY MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND SHOULD
REBUILD BACK TO THE WEST AGAIN BUT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE
THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
EARLY THIS WEEK SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MOS GUIDANCE BEEN RUNNING
SOME 3 TO 4 DEGREES TOO HIGH THE PAST COUPLE OR FEW DAYS...SO
ADJUSTED MAX TEMP GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

ON MONDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE PANHANDLES.
COMBINATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLES WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS AS SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND MORE MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW. UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

AS THE UPPER BUILDS BACK OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEK
AND THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD ON SATURDAY. ONLY CONCERN
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH COULD
ALLOW CONVECTION TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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