Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 232056
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
356 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Strengthening near-zonal mid-level flow will continue through
Monday, with subsequent support for maintenance of lee trof.
Digging shortwave trof across southern Rockies passes Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles Tuesday night and early Wednesday, supporting
development of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across northern
sections, where wrap-around moisture with incoming dynamics will
be maximized.  Expecting a lull in convective activity Wednesday
afternoon through Wednesday night, but energized mid-level flow
quickly resumes, with low chances for thunderstorms resuming
again Thursday, again with northern sections favored.  Models and
ensembles agree that a closed mid-level low develops on Friday
over southern Utah, with strengthening southwest flow for
Panhandles Friday night through at least Saturday morning, with
healthy pops being retained.  Lots of disagreement thereafter
regarding track of closed low, with GFS being much slower and
farther south by Sunday morning, with its prediction of 500 mb
low over northwest corner of forecast area at 12z.  Low pops for
Sunday due to uncertainty of placement of features and nature of
moisture.  03

Cockrell

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Light to moderate south to southwest winds will prevail tonight.
Southwest to south winds will increase on Monday, with elevated fire
weather conditions expected over most of the Panhandles. On
Tuesday, west and southwest winds will lead to elevated fire
weather conditions across the southern half of the Texas
Panhandle. A cold front Tuesday night will lead to north winds on
Wednesday. West winds on Thursday may lead to elevated fire
weather conditions across the western Texas Panhandle.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                71  48  88  59  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
Beaver OK                  72  50  91  54  79 /   0   0   0   0  20
Boise City OK              72  50  87  55  70 /   0   0   0   0  30
Borger TX                  72  51  91  61  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              74  49  91  58  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
Canyon TX                  71  48  87  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   5
Clarendon TX               69  46  88  60  85 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dalhart TX                 74  48  90  55  76 /   0   0   0   0  20
Guymon OK                  72  50  88  54  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
Hereford TX                72  49  88  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   5
Lipscomb TX                71  50  88  57  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   70  49  89  60  84 /   0   0   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                70  46  85  60  85 /   0   0   0   0   5
Wellington TX              70  46  86  59  88 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

07/03


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