Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 281935
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
235 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Current upper level analysis shows cutoff closed low moving into the
Ohio Valley while high pressure builds into the southern Plains. A
weak front in association with closed low has shifted surface winds
to the northeast across the Panhandles. This front will continue
to sag south/southwest through Thursday and will bring slightly
cooler temperatures to the area Thursday and Friday with highs
mostly in the 70s then slowly back into the 80s into the weekend.
Large scale subsidence and low moisture content will keep the
forecast dry at least until late Friday into Saturday when weak
return flow sets up bringing some moisture into the area. This
moisture along with a weak shortwave will help spark a few
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two mainly confined to the
western and northern half of the CWA.

Long term...Still some differences between models with the large upper
trough progged to approach the area Tuesday through Wednesday of
next week. Both models have dropped the southern extend of the jet
further south with better dynamics for precipitation and possibly
storms in portions of the area. The eastern Panhandles look to
stand the best chance for precip at this time...but still
uncertainty with timing and location of trough with Euro a bit
less progressive and more negatively tilted compared to the GFS
leading to more precip further west. The Euro also shows a
stronger mid- level jet moving across Panhandles which suggest
more organized storms compared to GFS. Details will become more
clear over the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                51  75  50  76  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  47  75  46  77  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
Boise City OK              49  77  47  80  50 /   0   0   0   5  20
Borger TX                  54  76  51  79  57 /   0   0   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              48  78  47  81  51 /   0   0   0   5  10
Canyon TX                  50  75  48  77  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               51  73  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dalhart TX                 52  77  50  82  54 /   0   0   0   5  20
Guymon OK                  50  76  49  80  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
Hereford TX                51  77  48  78  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                50  74  48  75  53 /   0   0   0   0   5
Pampa TX                   51  76  50  76  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                51  74  48  73  53 /   0   0   0   0   5
Wellington TX              52  75  49  75  53 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/7


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