Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 101951
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
151 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM... (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)

LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH
ORIENTED FROM JUST NORTH OF GUYMON TO JUST NORTH OF DALHART.
TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY IS NEGLIGABLE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEEP MIXING HAS CAUSED RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO FALL TO UNDER 20 PERCENT AT MOST LOCATIONS LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM.

THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC LATER
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER IN. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A BLEND OF SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHT WEIGHT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS DAY LOW TEMPERATURE
GRID WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE AFD WILL BE SENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

BRB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT KAMA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY THIS
EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KDHT AND KGUY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY THIS EVENING AT
KGUY AND KDHT AND BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KAMA.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY LATE TODAY
WITH A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PANHANDLES WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTER A BRIEF RETURN TO SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY WITH A LEE SURFACE LOW
AND TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SATURDAY.
DRY AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES PREVAILS TODAY THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY THIS WEEKEND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES. THE RIDGE FORECAST TO BREAK
DOWN AND THEN MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS
BACK OVER THE WESTERN STATES AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
LOTS OF CONCERNS ABOUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
LOOKING AT THE ECMWF...850 MB THERMAL RIDGE FORECAST BY 00Z THURSDAY
ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES BUT FAVORING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF FORECASTING THE STRONGEST 700 MB WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE GFS FORECASTING
THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE IN ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION BY 00Z
THURSDAY...OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS. THE GFS ALSO KEEPS THE STRONGEST 700 MB WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS OVER OKLAHOMA AND AROUND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 70S TODAY...WITH THE
FORECAST MAX TEMP AT AMARILLO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON.

SEEING AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS/COUPLE OF
WEEKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ERC VALUES HAVE INCREASED AS OF
TUESDAY TO 52 AT CEDAR RAWS...51 AT BOOTLEG RAWS AND 47 AT THE
WHEELER RAWS. 1-HOUR FMC/S HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 3 TO 4 PERCENT.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE 20 FOOT WINDS NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH 20 MPH. THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE THE LIGHTEST 20
FOOT WIND SPEEDS...WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH EXPECTED.

NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ALSO NEXT TUESDAY...AS EITHER THE 20
FOOT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TOO
HIGH. NEXT MONDAY COULD POSSIBLY SEE A RETURN TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS...AS 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 15 MPH AND MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALL TO NEAR 20 PERCENT OR 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/14


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.