Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 171014
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
414 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Noteworthy items again include the warm temperatures Friday
(near record territory...see Climate section below) and Saturday
which will warrant concern for fire weather conditions, and the
other item will be the small chance for precipitation Saturday
night into Sunday. Chances for precipitation have been consistent
the last 24 hours which warrants some increased confidence for
precipitation. However, it does appear the Amarillo area dry
streak will continue at this time.

Friday has been consistently showing well above normal temperatures.
This is also the case for Saturday afternoon. Confidence is pretty
high temperatures will be 15-20 degrees above normal for this time
of the year for most of the Panhandles Friday and Saturday. Upper
level pattern again has some very consistent signs through Saturday
night so feel these temperatures are probably on the right track.
These warm temperatures combined with dry conditions will result in
at least elevated fire weather conditions. Given its a few days out
we could see some changes. The one variable which is somewhat
marginal is the wind speeds. For high confidence there would need
to be stronger winds, but overall its borderline critical for
Friday with the current wind forecast, mainly for southern parts
of the Texas Panhandle. We still have about 48 hours to refine
these details and get the word out if a Red Flag will be needed
Friday. There could be two days of elevated fire weather concerns
at the very least going into the weekend.

In the upper levels an approaching upper level trough Saturday night
will be our focus for precipitation. Depending on where the surface
low sets up we could get some precipitation across the
Panhandles. Currently, the GFS and European have the surface low
going over the Panhandles or to the north, which will basically
dry slot us and keep most of the moisture to the north and
northeast. This was the case 24 hours ago as well, so confidence
is somewhat high much of the forecast area will be dry. Will keep
mostly 20-30 percent chances for precipitation across our
northern zones. Should be mostly rain given the warm temperatures
expected, but there could be a period of rain and/or snow Sunday
morning as temperatures drop to below freezing. Overall it doesn`t
look like snow will be the overall dominant precipitation type
though as temperatures have been trending warmer the last several
days for the Friday-Saturday timeframe. Forecast soundings show
decent lapse rates around areas like KGUY with decent moisture in
the low levels where lift is available. Confidence is increasing
for the Oklahoma Panhandle and maybe northern parts of the Texas
Panhandle to receive precipitation. Would not be surprised to see
this chances increase over the next 24 hours if models continue
the consistency of the upper level trough and associated surface
low.

Guerrero

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Friday afternoon as
dry conditions evolve with breezy wind speeds. Friday afternoon will
be a well above normal day for temperatures as 70s are forecast for
much of the Panhandles. Relative humidities are going to bottom out
around 11-19 percent. 20 foot wind speeds will be around 15 to 20
knots in some areas. Overall the main threat for fire weather will
across the Texas Panhandle on Friday. Saturday is a lesser change
due to weaker winds, but the main threat will be across western
parts of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle.

If wind speeds increase in the forecast over the next couple of days
we may be in the critical threshold for fire weather Friday
afternoon. This is borderline at the moment but high ERC will
warrant some concern for a critical fire weather day on Friday.

Guerrero

&&

.CLIMATE...

Amarillo.........75 set in 1986 (Current forecast - 72)
Dalhart..........78 set in 1986 (Current forecast - 72)
Borger...........75 set in 2000 (Current forecast - 70)

Guerrero

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                45  20  58  26  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  46  18  58  22  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              48  19  61  26  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  48  22  58  30  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              48  17  59  21  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  44  17  57  24  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               42  18  55  25  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 45  17  59  22  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  48  18  61  23  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                45  16  58  24  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                43  19  57  25  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   45  21  59  28  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                39  18  54  23  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              40  18  52  23  69 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$



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