Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 230902
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
302 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES WILL
DRIVE A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH THIS FRONT FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH 850MB AND 700 MB HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ALL POINT TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINED 35 MPH WINDS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF BLOWING DUST WITH
THESE HIGHER WINDS AS WELL. MODELS HAVE ALSO COME IN WETTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. LATEST TTU WRF AND HRRR MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME
KIND OF BAND OF PRECIP WILL TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLES TODAY. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCREASED THE POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
BELIEVE THAT THE PRECIP COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW. AS THE DAY WEARS ON
THE COLUMN COOLS QUITE A BIT. THE ENTIRE CLOUD LAYER REMAINS BELOW 0
DEGREES CELSIUS AND THERE IS MOISTURE IN THE -10 TO -20 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE TO HELP FORM SOME SNOW FLAKES. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THICKNESSES CRASH. SO
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 40S.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
TONIGHT IN THE BEST UPSLOPE AREA...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

AFTER TONIGHT THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES THE PANHANDLES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOMEWHAT BY THANKSGIVING. THE GFS
BROADENS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF TRIES TO CARVE OUT AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH WOULD PUSH ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON LEAVING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COLDER.
THE GFS DOES NOT BRING IN THE COLDER AIR UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. FOR
NOW HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE WITH THE TEMPERATURES. AT ANY RATE
THE MODELS REMAIN DRY AFTER TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                46  28  51  22  51 /  30  20   0   5   0
BEAVER OK                  48  23  53  21  53 /  30  10   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              46  21  51  19  52 /  30  20   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  53  30  53  25  54 /  30  10   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              49  27  52  22  53 /  30  20   0   5   0
CANYON TX                  48  27  54  22  52 /  30  20   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               52  31  55  28  52 /  30  10   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 49  20  53  18  51 /  30  20   0   5   0
GUYMON OK                  49  22  50  21  52 /  30  10   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                49  25  53  21  53 /  30  20   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                47  26  53  24  53 /  30  10   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   45  27  49  24  48 /  30  10   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                54  29  57  28  53 /  30  10   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              57  31  60  30  54 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...
     MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/15



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