Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 231146
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
546 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...WITH STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING UP BEHIND IT.
WINDS WILL REACH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
40 KTS...BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR KAMA FROM 14Z-22Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FOR ABOUT A 4-HOUR PERIOD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. COMBINATION
OF THE STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
BLDU...MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS START TO DIMINISH AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES WILL
DRIVE A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH THIS FRONT FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH 850MB AND 700 MB HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ALL POINT TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINED 35 MPH WINDS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF BLOWING DUST WITH
THESE HIGHER WINDS AS WELL. MODELS HAVE ALSO COME IN WETTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. LATEST TTU WRF AND HRRR MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME
KIND OF BAND OF PRECIP WILL TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLES TODAY. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCREASED THE POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
BELIEVE THAT THE PRECIP COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW. AS THE DAY WEARS ON
THE COLUMN COOLS QUITE A BIT. THE ENTIRE CLOUD LAYER REMAINS BELOW 0
DEGREES CELSIUS AND THERE IS MOISTURE IN THE -10 TO -20 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE TO HELP FORM SOME SNOW FLAKES. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THICKNESSES CRASH. SO
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 40S.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
TONIGHT IN THE BEST UPSLOPE AREA...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

AFTER TONIGHT THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES THE PANHANDLES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOMEWHAT BY THANKSGIVING. THE GFS
BROADENS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF TRIES TO CARVE OUT AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH WOULD PUSH ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON LEAVING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COLDER.
THE GFS DOES NOT BRING IN THE COLDER AIR UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. FOR
NOW HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE WITH THE TEMPERATURES. AT ANY RATE
THE MODELS REMAIN DRY AFTER TONIGHT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...
     MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/15




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