Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 300457
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASER ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 06Z AND 20Z WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP PREVAILING TSRA OR TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSRA AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. THE DALHART TAF SITE MAY SEE
THE CONVECTION END EARLIER THAN THE AMARILLO AND GUYMON TAF
SITES...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 20Z
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS 5 TO
15 KNOTS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH 10 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 10Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 01Z THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE THREE TAF SITES AROUND
14Z TO 18Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING
TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. UNTIL
THEN...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES 5
TO 15 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL CONVECTION BEGINS TO
INCREASE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AFTER 02Z TO 05Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND
14Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER 15Z
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD STILL LINGER PAST 18Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES STAND TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS WAVE HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND AS THIS UPPER
WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. HIGH RES MODELS AND THE WRF AND NMM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION TO THE NOSE OF A 30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET. UPGLIDE OVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER THIS AREA. THESE SIGNALS POINT
TO A MCS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THIS AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MCS WILL LIKELY BE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH AND WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AND ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...EXPECT ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN THE MAJORITY
OF CONCERNS WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S TO THE MID 80S.

LONG TERM...
CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA WHICH CAN LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALTHOUGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ALOFT AND NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CAN STEER CONVECTION INTO
THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LATER IN THE DAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...SO HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND...CAUSING THE UPPER FLOW TO VEER OUT OF THE NORHT. THIS WILL
KEEP ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AMA CWA. MODEL
SIGNALS INDICATE A POSSIBLE UPTICK ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE. HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST /BEYOND
SATURDAY/ DRY FOR NOW. DESPITE THE RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

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