Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 012014
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
314 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALREADY SEEN A FEW SHOWERS TRY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE THIS
DEVELOPMENT INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THE HOURS PROGRESS. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
HELP THIS DEVELOPMENT SPREAD. WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS BECOME STRONG
BUT A LACK OF DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY.
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS EXPECTED
WITH ANY STRONG STORM.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES PAST MIDNIGHT
BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE PRIOR TO THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. WITH THE
PANHANDLES REMAINING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES WITH A FEW STORMS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLES
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FURTHER EXPANSION OF PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO CAUSE THE UPPER PATTERN TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL
OPEN THE PANHANDLES UP TO A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SHOW THAT THIS FRONT COULD STALL ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE LIFTING
TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS POSSIBLE AT THE VERY END
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  91  66  92  67 /  10   5   0  10  10
BEAVER OK                  69  95  70  96  69 /  30   5   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              64  93  65  93  64 /  30  20  10  20  20
BORGER TX                  69  93  71  95  70 /  10   5   0   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              65  94  67  94  68 /  20   5   5  10  20
CANYON TX                  64  91  64  92  66 /  10   5   0  10  10
CLARENDON TX               65  92  66  93  67 /   5   0   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 65  94  64  94  65 /  30  10  10  20  20
GUYMON OK                  66  94  68  95  68 /  30   5  10  10  20
HEREFORD TX                65  92  65  92  65 /  10   5   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                69  93  69  94  69 /  20   0   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   67  92  69  92  66 /  10   0   0   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                68  94  68  94  68 /   5   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              68  95  68  95  70 /   5   0   0   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/14


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