Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 212048
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
348 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PLUME OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE OVER THE PANHANDLES AND SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE POSITION OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM AROUND GUYMON TO DALHART
WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT NECESSARY TO GENERATE THESE STORMS SO EXPECT ANY STORMS TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS. WEAK SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THESE STORMS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG WIND
GUST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. OTHERWISE
EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MUCH OF A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE AREA
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S AND MEAN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A MID-LEVEL UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER
LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS
COVERAGE WILL BE FURTHER TO THE EAST AND CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING
WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH SOUTH...BUT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH OF THE AMA CWA. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE PRESENCE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  93  65  91  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                  72 100  68 100  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              67  94  64  92  62 /  20  20  30  10  20
BORGER TX                  74  97  70  95  71 /  20  20  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              69  97  67  94  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  68  93  64  92  65 /  20  20  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               72  96  67  94  67 /  20  10  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 66  93  63  91  62 /  20  20  30  20  20
GUYMON OK                  70  97  66  97  66 /  20  20  30  20  20
HEREFORD TX                66  91  62  90  63 /  20  20  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                72  99  69  96  70 /  20  10  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   70  95  66  93  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                72  96  68  95  69 /  20  10  10  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              72  99  68  96  68 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

CLK/JDJ





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.