570
FXUS64 KAMA 081854
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
154 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

-A strong to severe thunderstorm is possible for this afternoon
 and evening.

-Small break from rain chances mid week will then return with
 thunderstorm chances Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Latest 18Z satellite and obs analysis shows a few features to
watch to indicate our thunderstorm chances later today. The first
is an outflow boundary moving SSW into the NE Panhandles, and will
continue to move south where some storms may generate along this
boundary. As this outflow boundary moves south into the
Panhandles, as of the latest 18Z RAOB data showing 1000-1500 J/kg
of CAPE and sfc-6 km shear with anemic value of 7 kts, the
environment will likely support pulse convection initially with
some storms that could produce severe wind gusts as they
collapse. The other area we are watching is the NM/CO high terrain
where mtn convection has already developed. Linear mode following
an outflow boundary and/or cold pool that survives the trip to
the Panhandles could produce some thunderstorms with strong winds
gusts, but these chances are low (~20% chance) at this time. Rain
chances will diminish and clear out of the region from north to
south just after midnight tonight. Dry conditions are expected
tomorrow as the main H500 high pressure near the Four Corners
region expand east in the Panhandles with large scale subsidence
over the region. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the
lower to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

The center of the main H500 aforementioned high pressure system
will begin to shift west towards the southern California
coastline, as seen by the latest 08/12Z model and numerical data.
A cold front on Friday, followed by a series of disturbances in a
return of H500 NW flow will bring diurnally driven convection
through the coming weekend into early next week. High temperatures
will start below average for the first half of the weekend behind
the cold front and then quickly moderate to near average towards
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

VFR conditions expected throughout most of the 18Z TAF period at
all TAF sites. The only exception could be a brief window around
23Z through around 05Z where a shower or TSRA is possible at TAF
sites. Confidence is too low to include in TAF at this time, where
AMD may be needed, if TSRA conditions occur. General winds will
range from SE to SW at 5-15 kts.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29