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000
FXUS64 KAMA 302129
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
329 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE.

PRECIPITATION IS NOW OVERSPREADING THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST.
FORECASTS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THIS EVENT ARE COMPLEX GIVEN
PROJECTED THERMAL PROFILES VERY NEAR FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
THAT SAID...CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
PANHANDLES SUGGEST WET BULBING EFFECTS SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY MIX ARE
QUITE POSSIBLE. IN FACT...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT A CONVECTIVE
NATURE TO SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET AS THE COLUMN
COOLS.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BY THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF COLD RAIN IN THE
EAST AND WINTRY MIX IN THE WEST. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK BUT PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EVIDENT IN THE 300-310K LAYER. THIS WAA PATTERN
APPEARS TO ENHANCE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER BY EVENING. THIS RAISES
CONCERNS THAT PRECIP COULD FALL PREDOMINATELY AS SLEET OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY IF WET BULB TEMPERATURES DO
NOT RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE CURRENTLY OBSERVED READINGS. GIVEN
IMPACTS FROM SLEET ACCUMULATION...THIS TREND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY THIS EVENING FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADES.

DEEP ASCENT DOES NOT SHOW SIGNS OF WANING UNTIL THE 15-18Z TIMEFRAME
ON SATURDAY...BUT PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
HELP TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TYPE TOWARD RAIN OVER ALL BUT THE
WESTERN ZONES BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE PRECIP EVENT WILL START TO WIND DOWN SUNDAY AS LARGE SCALE LIFT
DECREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING FURTHER
SOUTH OVER WESTERN MEXICO SUNDAY. A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AS IT DOES SO...SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WITH THIS FRONT CAN BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANY PRECIP EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE...GENERALLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A DECENT WARM
UP TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
60S TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SENDS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS TO BE LARGELY A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH
THE GFS DISPLAYS LIGHT QPF SIGNALS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WITH
THIS FRONT. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OUTSIDE OF COOLER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE END OF THE
WEEK...SUGGESTING A DECENT WARM UP IS IN STORE FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                31  39  30  42  22 / 100  80  20  10   0
BEAVER OK                  34  43  31  40  18 /  80  70  60   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              31  38  26  39  21 /  80  50  50   5   0
BORGER TX                  34  41  30  42  22 / 100  80  40   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              32  41  29  43  23 / 100  70  30  10   0
CANYON TX                  31  39  31  43  22 / 100  80  20  10   0
CLARENDON TX               35  41  32  45  21 / 100  90  40  10   0
DALHART TX                 33  38  29  41  21 /  90  70  40   5   0
GUYMON OK                  34  42  29  40  20 /  80  60  50   0   0
HEREFORD TX                30  39  32  43  23 / 100  80  20  10   0
LIPSCOMB TX                36  41  30  41  16 /  80  70  60   5   0
PAMPA TX                   34  38  29  41  21 / 100  80  40   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                37  42  35  45  21 /  90  80  50  10   0
WELLINGTON TX              37  45  35  47  22 /  90  90  50  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

10/05