


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
570 FXUS64 KAMA 081854 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 154 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 -A strong to severe thunderstorm is possible for this afternoon and evening. -Small break from rain chances mid week will then return with thunderstorm chances Thursday into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Latest 18Z satellite and obs analysis shows a few features to watch to indicate our thunderstorm chances later today. The first is an outflow boundary moving SSW into the NE Panhandles, and will continue to move south where some storms may generate along this boundary. As this outflow boundary moves south into the Panhandles, as of the latest 18Z RAOB data showing 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE and sfc-6 km shear with anemic value of 7 kts, the environment will likely support pulse convection initially with some storms that could produce severe wind gusts as they collapse. The other area we are watching is the NM/CO high terrain where mtn convection has already developed. Linear mode following an outflow boundary and/or cold pool that survives the trip to the Panhandles could produce some thunderstorms with strong winds gusts, but these chances are low (~20% chance) at this time. Rain chances will diminish and clear out of the region from north to south just after midnight tonight. Dry conditions are expected tomorrow as the main H500 high pressure near the Four Corners region expand east in the Panhandles with large scale subsidence over the region. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the lower to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 The center of the main H500 aforementioned high pressure system will begin to shift west towards the southern California coastline, as seen by the latest 08/12Z model and numerical data. A cold front on Friday, followed by a series of disturbances in a return of H500 NW flow will bring diurnally driven convection through the coming weekend into early next week. High temperatures will start below average for the first half of the weekend behind the cold front and then quickly moderate to near average towards the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 VFR conditions expected throughout most of the 18Z TAF period at all TAF sites. The only exception could be a brief window around 23Z through around 05Z where a shower or TSRA is possible at TAF sites. Confidence is too low to include in TAF at this time, where AMD may be needed, if TSRA conditions occur. General winds will range from SE to SW at 5-15 kts. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...29