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000
FXUS64 KAMA 072358 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
558 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATER
THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY...WITH THE
MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KGUY AND KDHT AT THIS TIME. KAMA MAY RECEIVE
SOME IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM AS WELL. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL SITES FOR MUCH OF THIS FCST CYCLE. PRECIPITATION
MAY START OUT AS LIGHT RAIN AT KGUY AND KDHT...BUT IS FCST TO
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 06Z TNGT. DID NOT BRING
ANY PRECIPITATION TO KAMA DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
IT WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THIS EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS UPDATE IS FOCUSED ON IMPACTS OF A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA IN WAKE OF TODAY/S FRONT.

THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH
OF THE PANHANDLES...BUT ADVECTION OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION HAS
LAGGED. ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON A SMALL/COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
DEEPENING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS SUPPORTED A FEW
LIGHTING STRIKES OVER EASTERN ARIZONA/SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO THE PAST
FEW HOURS...AND RADAR TRENDS ARE INCREASING OVER RATON MESA.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW AN AREA OF STRONG FORCING/ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE EMERGING OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SPREADING
EASTWARD OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AROUND MIDNIGHT. PROFILES
SUGGEST A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION TO SNOW THERE...BUT WEAKER FORCING
AND A LINGERING SHALLOW WARM NOSE MAY INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET/
MIXED PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH. PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 700 MB OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES COULD SUPPORT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH PRECIP
THERE...BUT THUNDER IS A LOW PROBABILITY AND WILL REFRAIN FROM THE
FORECAST/GRIDS.

IT APPEAR THE BEST WINDOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL OCCUR
FROM ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT TO 5 AM OVER THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...
WHERE THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR 1 TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE INDICATED
BY SREF /70-80 PERCENT PROBABILITIES/ AND OTHER GUIDANCE. MESOSCALE
MODELS DEPICT A SHARP SOUTHERN GRADIENT TO THE PRECIP THAT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...PERHAPS MITIGATING POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 3 AM AND 7 AM. STILL GIVEN PROXIMITY
OF BEST FORCING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW...HAVE EXPANDED
THE GOING ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...OVERALL REDUCED PROBABILITIES SOUTH OF THE
CANADIAN RIVER BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT...RANGING FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT.

OTHERWISE...ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPID WARM
UP BY MONDAY WITH RENEWED DOWNSLOPE BREEZES AND DEEPENING LEE SIDE
TROUGH. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING UPPER AIR TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE COMBINED
EFFECTS OF THESE FEATURES...BUT CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT REMAINS VALID...FAVORING THE NORTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FIRE WEATHER...
INITIALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS COLDER TEMPERATURES ADVECT SOUTHWARD
IN WAKE OF TODAY/S COLD FRONT. PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$