Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 150010

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
610 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

00Z TAF Cycle:

VFR conditions with high cirrus expected for another 12 hours or
so ahead of a strong cold front. The cold front will quickly sweep
through the Panhandles from around 09z-11z through about 14z-16z
Monday morning. Confidence is increasing that overcast low stratus
will reduce cigs to IFR with areas of LIFR behind the front.
There is also increasing concern for some freezing fog or even
some light freezing drizzle for a few hours behind the front which
could reduce vsbys. Can`t rule out some light ice accumulations
mainly on elevated surfaces with any -FZDZ. Will be watching model
trends through next TAF issuance to see if vsbys need to be
lowered further. Conditions should improve to MVFR/IFR cigs during
the afternoon. Winds will shift from southwest at around 10 knots
to north-northeast at 23-29 knots gusting up to 35 knots as the
front moves through. Can`t rule out some gusts as high as 40 knots
in some locations. Winds will gradually decrease through the
afternoon to around 15 knots by the end of this period. Can`t
rule out a brief period of wind shear around 30 knots just ahead
of the cold front.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 320 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018/

Big changes expected across the Panhandles over the next 24 hours.
A strong cold front is expected to enter the Panhandles around 6
AM Monday morning. This front is expected to move across the area
to exit the southern Texas Panhandle by noon. This will affect
high temperatures as locations in the Oklahoma Panhandle will
likely have their high temperature just after midnight. Regardless
of location, we will "peak" in temperatures by noon at the latest
with temperatures falling throughout the afternoon. Isentropic
lift will result in light snow across the Oklahoma and
northwestern texas Panhandle during the day on Monday. Given the
cold post frontal airmass we could see localized flurries across
the Panhandles. In fact, late Monday night or early Tuesday
morning, we could see some plant effect snow since temperatures
between 870mb and 840mb will be around -12C. Overall amounts
should range from trace amounts across most of the area up to one-
half inch across the northwestern corner of the combined
Panhandles. These amounts may be enough to result in slick spots
on bridges and overpasses.

As alluded to with the plant effect snow comment above, we will be
looking at very cold temperatures Monday night into Tuesday
morning. This will result in negative wind chills. A Wind Chill
Advisory may be needed for Monday night into Tuesday morning.

A warming trend is expected from mid-week into the weekend. In
fact we could be looking at highs of 70 for some locations. Friday
will be a bit breezy as a lee-side trough tightens the surface
pressure gradient over the Panhandles. This will bring fire
weather concerns back to the forefront. See fire weather section

Elevated fire weather conditions look possible on Friday. Strong
southwest winds are expected to develop across the western two-
thirds of the combined Panhandles as a lee-side trough develops
across southeastern Colorado. Temperatures are also expected to
rise into the upper 60s to 70s. This will drop our afternoon
relative humidity to into the 15 to 20 percent range. As we move
into the evening hours relative humidities are expected to improve
to bring an end to elevated fire weather conditions. Spotty elevated
fire weather may be possible on Saturday.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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