Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 211743
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1143 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...HOWEVER SOME LOW
CLOUDS OR AREAS OF FOG PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT THE THREE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z
SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z TODAY...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z TO 16Z SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
SOME FOG WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE MVFR RANGE SHOULD BE FOUND AROUND
THE AMA TAF SITE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS FORECAST. DO NOT
BELIEVE THAT FOG WILL VISIT THE DHT OR GUY TAF SITES. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO SKIES WILL BE VFR ONCE
THE FOG LIFTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT
SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT THE AMA TAF SITE LATE IN THIS FORECAST...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED IT AT
THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY
THIS MORNING. EARLIER WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA
HAS BEEN STUNTED BY A TRANSITION TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE NOW IN PLACE AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...STARTING TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS A FEW DEGREES OR LESS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES...WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FOG/FREEZING FOG FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING.

A FAIRLY COMPACT BUT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
CA WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS AZ TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS...A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN MODESTLY THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THIS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL SPELL SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING FROM YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID
50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT THEN ACROSS TX ON SATURDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERLY
TRACK KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
PANHANDLES. HOWEVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE MAY GET CLIPPED
BY SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MOST OF THE CWA...THE MAIN
STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. SOUTHWEST
BREEZES WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD
OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE END OF THE RECENT WARMING TREND...AS A COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD SOME CHILL TO THE AIR. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE LACKING FOR ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG FORCING WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS AN
UPPER JET AND TROUGH DIG SOUTHEAST. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES WHERE UPPER DYNAMICS AND
STRONGEST LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOOK TO LINE UP
BEST...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...WILL CARRY SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS LOWER.
THE CHANCES FOR ANY SUCH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING.

AN AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HEIGHTS WILL RISE BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST
UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD. THUS MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL LOOK
ON TRACK FOR THE BIG TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
LIKELY REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND BEYOND REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE AT THIS POINT AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO LACK CONSISTENCY FOR THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS...PAINTING A MUCH WARMER AND DRY SCENARIO COMPARED TO ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SLAMMED AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING
DAY. IN FACT...THIS LATEST ECMWF RUN KEEPS THE COLD AIR WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY AND GO WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOLUTIONS
START TO STABILIZE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/05





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