Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 040944
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
444 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE OF TSTMS SHOULD
BE FAR LESS THAN PAST FEW DAYS AND NIGHTS...DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLD TSTMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A STORM OR TWO PSBLY
BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE AGAIN. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE 10 POP RULE FOR TODAY AREAWIDE...INCREASING TO 15 PERCENT
FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE FAR WRN COUNTIES WHERE SLGT CHC POPS WERE RETAINED CLOSE
TO THE NM STATE LINE IN THE EVENT A FEW STORMS DRIFT IN FROM ERN NM
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING POPS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SHORT AND
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
WERE ACCEPTED.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS NOW SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR WED AND THURS...THEN EXPAND INTO THE SRN PLAINS
NEXT FRIDAY THRUOGH THE WEEKEND. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
FOR WED THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPS SEEM LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                91  69  92  69  84 /  10  20  10  20  50
BEAVER OK                  95  71  97  71  83 /  10  20  10  30  60
BOISE CITY OK              92  67  94  65  80 /  10  20  20  30  40
BORGER TX                  94  73  96  72  85 /  10  20  10  30  50
BOYS RANCH TX              93  68  94  67  83 /  10  20  10  20  40
CANYON TX                  91  68  92  68  84 /  10  20  10  20  50
CLARENDON TX               92  71  94  71  88 /  10  20  10  20  50
DALHART TX                 95  68  96  66  81 /  10  20  20  30  40
GUYMON OK                  96  70  98  69  82 /  10  20  10  30  50
HEREFORD TX                90  67  91  67  85 /  10  20  10  20  40
LIPSCOMB TX                92  71  94  72  85 /  10  20  10  20  60
PAMPA TX                   92  70  93  70  85 /  10  20  10  20  50
SHAMROCK TX                92  71  94  72  89 /  10  20  10  20  50
WELLINGTON TX              93  72  95  73  91 /  10  20  10  20  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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