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000
FXUS64 KAMA 230506 AAD
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1206 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
FOR KAMA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSRA
AT KAMA AFTER 2100Z SO INCLUDED A VCTS FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF A
STATIONARY FRONT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS TO DEVELOP STORMS IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. IF A STORM DOES DIRECTLY IMPACT KAMA...LARGE
HAIL...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 KT...AND BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR KGUY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500-2500FT
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AFTER 13Z AND CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR KDHT...NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS KGUY BUT THINK AFTER 02Z SEEMS
LIKELY. TSRA DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF BOTH
TERMINALS.

KNS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

UPDATE...
OUR THOUGHTS REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP FOR THURSDAY
GENERALLY JIVE WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST. BASED ON THE NEWEST MODEL
DATA, WE`RE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.

TIMING: IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL INITIATE
AFTER 3:30 PM NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
A DALHART TO CLAUDE LINE. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE, POSSIBLY NEAR AMARILLO. AS
THESE STORMS DEVELOP, THEY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR, STORMS
SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND SEVERE WITHIN AN HOUR AND A
HALF AFTER THEY DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME, THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE 4-10 PM.

LOCATION: THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO OCCUR SOUTH AND
EAST OF A HEREFORD TO DALHART TO BEAVER LINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
AN AMARILLO TO CANADIAN LINE. THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO BE
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF AN AMARILLO TO PAMPA TO SHAMROCK LINE.
HOWEVER, AS WE`VE MENTIONED IN OUR DISCUSSIONS, THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
NEWEST NAM AND LATEST TEXAS TECH WRF  ADDITIONALLY, ONE THING WE`LL
BE WATCHING VERY CLOSELY TONIGHT IS IF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
IN OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS OR WESTERN OKLAHOMA. IF AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS, IT COULD SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SCENARIO IS EXTREMELY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT WE`LL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY AS ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD ALSO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES IF IT
DOESN`T COMPLETELY MIX OUT.

HAZARDS: VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER,
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY (OR POTENTIALLY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY).
THE WINDOW FOR THE HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL LOOKS RELATIVELY SMALL
AT THIS TIME, BUT THE 5-8 PM TIME FRAME IS WHEN WE`LL BE WATCHING
THIS POTENTIAL MOST CLOSELY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE PRESENT, BUT SUPERCELLS ARE NOT
THE MOST EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. HOWEVER, IF A SLOW MOVING
SUPERCELL MOVES ALONG ANY FRONT/BOUNDARY, THAT POTENTIAL WOULD BE
GREATLY ENHANCED.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGES WERE TO ADD A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT AND ADJUST TEMPS UPWARD
IN MANY LOCATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
IT`S A MILD EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. WITH A 40-45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
10-20 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, SO WE HAVE WARMED LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.

WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING, MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, BUT REGIONAL 0000 UTC SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY MEAGER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO
WILL CLIP OUR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION APPEAR
TO BE SUFFICIENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A BEAVER TO MCLEAN LINE BETWEEN 5 AM
AND 10 AM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE, BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT
TONIGHT. THEREFORE, IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY MAY CONTAIN SOME SMALL
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS, BUT DUE TO THE MEAGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. UPDATED PRODUCTS AND
POINT-N-CLICK FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

AN UPDATED DISCUSSION REGARDING THURSDAY`S SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WILL
BE SENT SHORTLY AFTER DIGESTING THE LATEST MODEL DATA.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KAMA AND KDHT (AS
LONG AS STORMS DON`T IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL). HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGUY 15Z-18Z AND 20Z-00Z.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSRA AT KAMA AFTER 2130Z, BUT WE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON INCLUDING THIS IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE FOR TWO REASONS:
1) THE COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY BE ISOLATED THROUGH END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.
2) DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS TO DEVELOP STORMS.

HOWEVER, IF A STORM DOES DIRECTLY IMPACT KAMA, LARGE HAIL, WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 55 KT, AND BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE LINED
UP JUST EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BE FOUND LINED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY.

THIS MEANS THAT THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST AND A TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER TO OUR AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AS MOISTURE IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THEN BROUGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE
SURFACE DETAILS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

FIRST...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BACKDOOR INTO THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE WHEN CONVECTION INITIATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS ARE NOT CLEAR ON JUST EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS INTERACT WITH
THE BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD TO ADD TO THE FUEL. THESE STORMS
WILL ALSO NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST.

FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AREAS NEAR THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON.

BY MEMORIAL DAY...THE DRYLINE MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
BY THE AFTERNOON...SO THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE IN THESE
AREAS.

WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
ALOFT MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP EDGE THE DRYLINE EAST OF OUR
AREA.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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