Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 091053
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
553 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE OVER THEN NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS ARE SLOWLY SHIFTING BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
WILL REMAIN FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
TAF ISSUANCE. THE QUESTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED
VCSH TO KDHT AND KGUY AS THEY WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE TO BE
IMPACTED, BUT DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS EARLY MORNING. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND IN
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...SO EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND MAKE IT WELL INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE.

AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FOCUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO SPARK SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER.
IF THESE STORMS CAN DEVELOP...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
DEPENDENT ON COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE CURRENT
THOUGHT THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S SEEM REASONABLE. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS COMPLETELY NORTH AND OUT OF THE
AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AS THE INFAMOUS PANHANDLE
BUBBLE LOOKS TO BE IN FULL EFFECT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST
AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON BOTH DAYS...BUT THINK CHANCES ARE
VERY LOW THAT STORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE OR
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME. WITH THAT SAID...SIDED
WITH A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE CAVEAT THAT
THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD SNEAK INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST CORNER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF STORMS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S SOUTH TO TRIPLE DIGITS NORTH ARE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.

THE BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE AND MORE TO A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR THIS WEEKEND SO HAVE COMPLETELY REMOVED THE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE AREA. STILL THINK STORMS WILL FIRE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO BUT WITHOUT NORTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT DOMINATING THE STEERING FLOW...STORMS WILL STAY WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MID 90S SOUTH TO POSSIBLY EVEN MID
100S ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.

THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK BECOMES A LITTLE MUDDLED AS MODELS DO
NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON JUST WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BACK OVER THE AREA. WITH THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO HAVE CARRIED
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLES. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD POSSIBLY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER BUT MID TO UPPER 90S SEEM TO STAY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...INTERESTING SET UP WITH
ANOTHER FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA THAT COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR MUCH BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND A BREAK IN THE HEAT.
STAY TUNED!

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/20





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