Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 170853
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
353 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. CURRENTLY...THE MOST
LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLES APPEARS
TO BE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

A MASSIVE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN ADVANCE OF ODILE...NOW CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. TRENDS IN VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF ODILE...NOW HEADING TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO.

A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
IS DEPICTED BY NWP TO GENERALLY PERSIST IN SOME FORM OR FASHION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THUS ISOLATED /20 PERCENT/ GRIDDED
POPS WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 UNTIL
FORCING/ASCENT TIED TO THE APPROACH OF THE EVOLVING REMNANTS OF
ODILE BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS IN EARNEST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS HAVE REMAINED IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SUBSEQUENT RUNS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...SHOWING
THE CORE REMNANTS OF ODILE TRANSLATING OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12Z FRIDAY AND 12Z SATURDAY. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES AS AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS
OVER THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS TOWARD 60-70
PERCENT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. 40 TO 60 PERCENT GRIDDED POPS WERE RETAINED
SATURDAY...WHEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LINGERING SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING FORCED AND ULTIMATELY DISPLACED SOUTH AND EASTWARD BY
A PASSING FRONT. WITH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
INCREASING...WIDESPREAD MEAN STORM TOTAL RAINFALL MAY RANGE FROM 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS DEPICTED BY WPC QPF. A FLOOD AND/OR
FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY DEVELOP AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ADDITIONALLY HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE APPROACH
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS
FEATURE MAY PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

LINDLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                79  58  82  59  78 /  20  20  20  30  60
BEAVER OK                  92  63  91  64  84 /   5   5  10  10  40
BOISE CITY OK              88  58  84  60  79 /  10  10  10  20  60
BORGER TX                  86  65  86  65  77 /  10  10  20  20  60
BOYS RANCH TX              81  62  82  63  77 /  20  10  20  30  60
CANYON TX                  79  62  80  62  78 /  20  20  30  30  60
CLARENDON TX               82  64  83  63  80 /  20  20  20  30  60
DALHART TX                 87  60  84  62  80 /  10  10  20  30  60
GUYMON OK                  91  61  89  63  77 /  10   5  10  10  50
HEREFORD TX                78  61  79  62  79 /  20  20  30  40  60
LIPSCOMB TX                89  63  88  64  81 /  10   5  10  10  50
PAMPA TX                   83  61  83  61  77 /  10  10  20  20  50
SHAMROCK TX                87  64  87  63  79 /  10  10  20  20  50
WELLINGTON TX              85  67  85  66  80 /  20  20  20  20  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.