Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 232037
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
337 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PACKAGE. SHORT AND
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN LINE WITH RECENT RUNS.
FORECAST FOCUS IS FOR WARM AND WINDY WEATHER ON FRIDAY...THEN THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER RETURN FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST.

NF

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE HAMPERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES, MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED INTO THE 70S.

HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE DALHART/DUMAS/STRATFORD AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A WEAK
CAPPING INVERSION IN THIS AREA BUT THE REMAINS ENOUGH HEATING TIME
FOR THIS INVERSION TO BE OVERCOME. SHOULD THE CAP BE BROKEN...THEN
STORMS WILL HAVE ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG TO WORK WITH. AS THESE STORMS
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THEY WILL MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION. SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT BUT
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW STRONG LEVELS.

14

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND WINDY DAY FOR THE PANHANDLES...QUITE
THE CHANGE AFTER THE LAST FEW COOLER AND WETTER DAYS. AHEAD OF A
SWIFTLY APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED
AS WARM TEMPERATURES HELP TO MIX DOWN HIGHER WINDS FROM A MID-LEVEL
SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. FROM A FIRE WEATHER
PERSPECTIVE...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THOUGH FUELS ARE GREENING UP ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO WARMER TEMPS AND RECENT RAINS. WILL LEAVE THE
CALL FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS UNTIL THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE.

AFTER FRIDAY...THE FOCUS TURNS TO YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DIGGING INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREES FAIRLY WELL ON A TRACK FOR IT THAT WOULD TAKE IT DIRECTLY OVER
THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. BEST
CHANCES AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE ON MONDAY.

BEHIND THE LOW...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AND LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AFTER
TUESDAY. OVERALL THOUGH...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE WEEK...SO THERE COULD BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT WEEKEND IF THAT HOLDS TRUE.

NF

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY EXPECTED AREA-WIDE ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH RECENT WETTING RAINS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELPED FINE FUELS BEGIN THEIR SPRING GREEN-UP. IF ANY FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED FOR FRIDAY...GREATEST CHANCES FOR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.

NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                53  79  51  81  51 /  10   5   5   0   5
BEAVER OK                  54  81  49  83  49 /  20  10  10   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              47  74  46  77  46 /  10  10   5   0   5
BORGER TX                  56  80  53  83  53 /  10   5   5   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              51  78  49  81  50 /  10   5   5   0   5
CANYON TX                  52  78  50  80  50 /  10   5   5   0   5
CLARENDON TX               56  81  53  83  53 /  20   5   5   0   5
DALHART TX                 47  76  45  79  46 /  10   5   5   0   5
GUYMON OK                  51  79  47  81  48 /  20  10  10   0   5
HEREFORD TX                49  77  48  80  48 /   5   5   5   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                57  80  52  83  50 /  20  10   5   0   5
PAMPA TX                   54  79  51  81  51 /  20   5   5   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                57  81  55  84  53 /  20   5   5   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              60  83  55  87  55 /  20   5   5   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/06





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