Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 222329 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
629 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

For the 00Z TAFS, a weak sfc cold front has moved into the far nwrn
zones and is expected to move thru KGUY and KDHT early in this fcst
cycle before becoming stationary later tonight, then eventually
washing out Thursday afternoon. Isolated showers and tstms should
develop near this boundary through the evening hours, and have
included VCTS at KGUY and KDHT for a few hours this evening. Do not
expect this cold front or tstms to affect KAMA.



.Prev Discussion... /Issued 344 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/

Storms have already started forming in New Mexico and Colorado. The
frontal boundary that kicked these off has moved into the
northwestern Oklahoma Panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the northwestern area of the cwa this evening
and progress eastward overnight. The front is progged to stall out
over the central Oklahoma Panhandle and northwestern Texas Panhandle
tonight. This will serve as a focus for more storm development
Thursday. There will be enough instability in the northwest for
storms on Thursday to become strong to perhaps marginally severe.
With deep layer shear remaining weak, storms seem unlikely to become
supercellular and thus preventing likelihood of severe weather.

With a pattern of zonal flow in the upper atmosphere, the area will
continue seeing periods of precip through the weekend as shortwaves
will pass through the area and bring enough instability to set off
thunderstorms through the weekend. Models are in good agreement in
the mid levels through the beginning of next week. They all prog a
low to swing northward from eastern Mexico up to southern-central
Texas. This will bring moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico. This
combine with the instability from shortwaves rippling through the
lower and mid levels, will keep slight chance to chance pops in the
forecast for early next week for portions of the Panhandles. With the
extra cloud cover around, temps next week will remain in the lower



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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