Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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432
FXUS64 KAMA 230554
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1254 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.AVIATION...06z TAFS...
Scattered showers and storms are expected to continue across the
Panhandles, but VFR conditions will be predominant for the next
24 hours. At times within the first few hours, VCSH conditions may
provide an isolated chance of MVFR conditions at times at all TAF
sites if these slow moving thunderstorms make their way near the
sites. Otherwise, winds be variable between 10-15 kts throughout
the TAF period. PROB30 group continues starting at 20Z through
about 02z.

Weber

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 317 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Not too much has changed from the previous forecast. Several chances
for thunderstorms are in the forecast through the extended. Severe
weather chances are limited at best but some strong storms are
certainly possible. Convection has initiated over central and
southern parts of the Texas Panhandle. These isolated sub-severe
storms will linger around through the afternoon and evening. These
storms are slow moving in nature, so the biggest threat will be
localized moderate to heavy rainfall.

High pressure continues to be the dominate feature in the upper
levels. Weak forcing and limited instability will hinder severe
weather chances over the next several days. Convective
temperatures were reached this afternoon with a surface trough
helping initiate thunderstorms across the area. Lightning was
noted with these storms as well. DCAPE values are of interest for
possible gusty storms as the more efficient rain producers create
outflow boundaries as they collapse. Nothing to speak of so far
with regards to strong storms but certainly a possibility going
into later parts of the day and evening. The convective allowing
models have storms lingering around through the afternoon, albeit
isolated in nature and dying out after we lose daytime heating.
Later in the evening signs are pointing to more widespread
rainfall to the north and northeast behind the surface trough, but
these chances may stay east of the forecast area across New
Mexico. Precipitable water values are also high the next several
days which points to possible efficient rain producers. Given the
slow movement of storms via forecast soundings and hodographs,
there are several chances for localized heavy rainfall the next
several days.

Outside of thunderstorm chances, temperatures will be in the 90s for
the most part, with some areas around 100 degrees. All things being
considered, temperatures will not be too far from normal for this
time of year.

Guerrero

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                67  92  67  95  71 /  40  20  20   5   5
Beaver OK                  68  97  71 100  74 /  30  30  20  10   5
Boise City OK              62  91  64  95  68 /  50  20  20  10  20
Borger TX                  72  96  74  99  75 /  40  30  20   5   5
Boys Ranch TX              69  95  69  97  72 /  40  20  20   5   5
Canyon TX                  65  92  66  95  69 /  40  20  10   5   5
Clarendon TX               68  92  68  96  72 /  30  30  20   5   5
Dalhart TX                 65  94  65  96  69 /  40  20  20   5  20
Guymon OK                  67  95  69  98  72 /  40  20  20   5  10
Hereford TX                66  93  66  95  69 /  30  20  10   5   5
Lipscomb TX                69  96  71  99  74 /  40  30  20  10   5
Pampa TX                   68  94  70  97  71 /  40  30  20   5   5
Shamrock TX                70  95  70  99  74 /  40  30  10   5   5
Wellington TX              70  96  70 100  74 /  30  30  10   5   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/24



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