Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 281748
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SHIFTING
TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS A FRONT FROM KGUY TO KRTN MAKES SLOW
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. WINDS AT KDHT SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF THE NW
DURING THE FIRST HOUR OF THIS TAF CYCLE WHILE KAMA REMAINS OUT OF THE
WEST. THERE IS SOME QUESTION IF KAMA WILL SHIFT FROM THE NW BEFORE
SHIFTING BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHEN THE FRONT
NEARS THE TERMINAL...SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KT.

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST
PART THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE TERMINALS...BUT A
BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 03Z. THE
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS BY 03Z TO CLEAR TERMINALS OF THIS WEATHER THREAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLES TODAY. AHEAD OF
THIS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS MORNING AS
STRONGER MOMENTUM FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET MIXES DOWNWARD. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AND TURN TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT KDHT AND KGUY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL LIKELY HANG UP NORTH OF KAMA...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PERSIST AND REMAIN A BIT STRONGER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ARE TOO MINIMAL TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. A STOUT
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND WILL
REMAIN THERE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN
WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...THOUGH THE
PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN BELOW MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WHOLE WEEK. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW WILL DETERMINE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EDGING INTO THE PANHANDLES
TODAY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SET TO PASS OVERHEAD...COULD
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE AND
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT ARE LOW...SO HAVE USED A 10 POP RULE FOR
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERAL HIGH-RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
SUGGEST AN INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR HEREFORD TO
SLAPOUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THEN FOCUS TURNS TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR SEVERAL DAYS AT THE
END OF THIS WEEK...AS THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES. UNDER THIS
PATTERN...AS WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STALL OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITHOUT ANY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE AREA...MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THIS FRONT.
THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LOW FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...THOUGH AN INCREASING HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL EXIST LATER IN THE WEEK.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/17





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