Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 181141 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
641 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail at all terminal
sites through 12Z Wednesday.

Andrade

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 406 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Mostly dry weather with above average temperatures can be
expected through Friday. Mid/upper level high pressure is becoming
better established across the southern Plains with zonal flow over
the northern Plains. Anti-cyclonic flow is pushing a plume of dry
mid level air into the Panhandles out of north Texas and Oklahoma
per water vapor imagery. This along with rising 500 mb
temperatures will greatly limit convective activity today. Can`t
completely rule out some diurnally driven convection across the
far western zones, but confidence is too low to include
mentionable pops in current forecast. Temperatures will be above
average with highs in the mid to upper 90s, and a few 100s as
southwest winds during the morning back to south/southeast in the
late afternoon. Lows going into Wednesday morning will be in the
high 60s to low 70s.

More of the same can be expected Wednesday through Friday as the
mid/upper level high pressure remains over the southern Plains.
Subsidence and warm/dry mid level air will keep precip out of the
forecast during this time. It looks like Thursday and Friday will
be the warmest days of the week as stronger lee troughing takes
place leading to increased downslope flow / compressional heating.
Not thinking heat headlines will be needed at this time, but can`t
rule it out.

Going into the weekend, model guidance is still hinting at a
shortwave trough breaking the ridge down some potentially leading
to periods of northwest flow and some moisture return. The GFS
and Canadian models are most agressive with this s/w feature and
even try to bring a stalling frontal boundary into the area Monday
into Tuesday. However, the ECMWF is not on board as it keeps the
upper high intact much longer. Thus, the ECMWF is also a much
drier solution which has lead me to "err on the side of caution"
with pops over the weekend into next week. So while pops are broad
brushed, they were once again reduced from what the blend
produced. Still not convinced that we will see the multi-day
precip that the GFS/Canadian are latched onto, at least not the
areal extent currently being advertised.

Ward

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$



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