Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 141149 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
649 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL
SITES TODAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY LATE IN THE DAY. ALL
PRECIP HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE TAF SITES. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BY AROUND 01Z TUE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
STEADILY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. REPORTS RANGING FROM
0.5-1.5" OF SNOW HAS PROMPTED THE EXPANSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES. SNOW WILL END QUICKLY
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO EASTERN NM SLIDES TO THE EAST. SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. WITH THIS HIGH
OVERHEAD...SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING WHILE THE CURRENT STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO DIMINISH THEN. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD
TO A WIDESPREAD FREEZE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
FREEZING TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IS HIGH...DID NOT FLIP THE HARD
FREEZE WATCH OVER TO A WARNING AS TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH THE CURRENT
FREEZE WARNINGS ALREADY IN EFFECT.

LONG TERM...
SURFACE LEE SIDE LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S AS WINDS SWING AROUND
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MILD DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
THE LOWER 70S. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS
TODAY/S FRONT BUT SHOULD STILL SEE COOL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE
UPPER 50S. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE WEAK...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CAN SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY. THE AREA WILL RESIDE
UNDER WEAK UPPER RIDGING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK SUPPORTING
REBOUNDING TEMPS INTO THE 70S OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST A DECENT FETCH OF MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLES
BY EASTER SUNDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW EMERGING OUT OF SOUTHERN CA.
THIS MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TODAY. DESPITE THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT...PRECLUDING ELEVATED AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN MAY COME SATURDAY INTO EASTER SUNDAY.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...
     HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...
     LIPSCOMB...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$







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