Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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268
FXUS64 KAMA 241043
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
543 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.Aviation...
12Z Issuance...VFR conditions expected for all sites through the
period. Low clouds off the Caprock should thin out this morning and
thunderstorm chances later in the afternoon, after 21Z, shouldn`t
affect the taf sites. Gusty southwest winds will be up to 30kts today
and stick around until 02 to 06Z.

Beat

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 519 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

Discussion...
For today, a fairly broad upper level trof over wrn us witll retain
SW flow in place across the srn high plains. Surface winds will
increase and become SW on the Caprock later this morning, causing the
surface dryline to move east across wrn and most of cntrl zones and
eventually slow down and stall somewhere across ern half of the fcst
area later this afternoon. The combination of sufficient moisture
east of the dryline, strong daytime heating and attendant atmospheric
instability, the dryline itself acting as a sfc boundary to help
initiate sfc based tstms, a high cape environment east of the
dryline, decent shear, all suggest that another round of tstms will
develop later this afternoon and continue through the evening hours
east of where the dryline parks itself. Some storms will become
severe, with large hail the dominant primary severe weather threat,
although damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will also pose a
secondary threat. Have painted slgt chc to chc pops ern third of fcst
area for starters this afternoon and evening and also mentioned
psblty of severe in grids and appropriate zones.

A brief break from tstms seems likely on Wednesday and Wednesday
night as the dryline temporarily moves into Oklahoma. No pops during
this period.

A near repeat performance of this afternoon`s and evening`s severe
weather potential looks plausible for Thursday afternoon and evening
across the ern third of the fcst area as an upper level low pressure
system tracks across the srn and cntrl high plains durg this time
period. Slgt chc pops for tstms were incorporated into the grids
along with psblty of severe.

As the upper level low pressure system continues moving across to the
north of the OK and TX Panhandles on Friday, continued slgt chc pops
across nrn and ern sections based on projected path of the storm
system itself.

Dry weather is then anticipated area wide Friday night through
Saturday night. However, the wrn states upper level trof reloads for
Sunday into early next week with the major long range numerical
weather models indicating this to occur. Therefore, have slgt chc to
chc pops from Sunday through next Tuesday across the area in accordance
with the expected continuation of some semblance of a wrn states
upper level trof.

Andrade

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/2



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