Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 190438 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1138 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE TO FORECAST MADE SIX HOURS AGO.  LIGHT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND TO SOUTHWEST BY DAYBREAK UNDER A
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY.  NO EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST INTO THE 25
TO 30 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  BASES OF SCATTERED
CUMULUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.  SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 00Z MONDAY.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES
NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL FORECASTS...ELIMINATING LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN
EASTERN SECTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...BASED ON WEAK ECHOES
INDICATED BY RECENT RADAR TRENDS.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE VERY SOON...NOT HAVING ANY AVIATION IMPACT TO ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.  ONLY MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.  NO EARLY MORNING BR OR
FOG IS EXPECTED.  SOME BRIEF EARLY MORNING STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED
AROUND KAMA.  OTHERWISE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WILL BE
CUMULUS.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE AROUND 15Z SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS PROVIDED THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY TRAVELED FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THIS WILL
ALLOW THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO SEE SOME PRECIP THIS
EVENING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

SUNDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY
REMAIN LIMITED AND SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LOW END PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER TROUGH IMPACTS THE PANHANDLES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE LOW END SO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE GFS COMING CLOSER
TO THE ECMWF ON THE CUT OFF OF PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE
TO A FURTHER EAST POSITIONING OF THE CLOSED LOW. EXPECT TO SEE
ADJUSTMENTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WE GO FORWARD IN
TIME. BY FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/19





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.