Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 122346
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
646 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
Only thunderstorms occurring at this time across forecast area are
west of Hereford, with slow movement to southeast.  Believe that
all terminals will remain clear of thunder this evening and
overnight, as subsidence behind departing mid-level shortwave
trof strengthens.  However, widespread IFR ceilings and fog are
expected to develop between 05z and 07z Sunday owing to abundant
surface moisture from earlier rains in the presence of favorable
orientation of surface ridge extending southwest into Texas
Panhandle.  Timing of flight category changes remains uncertain,
but expect that improvement to MVFR will occur around 15z Sunday,
with return to VFR by 19z.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 323 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Most of the rain should continue to move of to the southeast in
association with an upper level shortwave trough. There may not be
much in the way of precipitation across the panhandles tonight
behind this shortwave. Models do not indicate any disturbances
moving across the panhandles in the northwest flow aloft through
tonight.  We will lower pops to low end chance and slight
chance pops.

On Sunday, we should see showers and thunderstorms move this way
from the mountains of Colorado and New Mexico in the afternoon.
Another upper level shortwave trough will move southeast as well
keeping these showers and thunderstorms going through the night as
they traverse the panhandles. However, the better chance of rain may
be across the west.

By Monday, the flow aloft will become weaker as we transition from a
northwest flow to a more westerly flow. However, there will still be
a chance of showers and thunderstorms as the subtropical plume will
still be overhead.

Tuesday and Tuesday night may be our last chance of showers and
thunderstorms for this forecast before the southwest flow aloft
starts to push the subtropical plume south away from our area. The
upper level trough responsible for our southwest flow aloft will be
over the Great Basin on Tuesday and it will slowly push east and
will be over the Great Plains by the end of the week. The flow aloft
will slowly transition back to northwest next weekend, so rain
chances may increase just beyond this forecast again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                63  82  66  89  66 /  30  20  50  20  40
Beaver OK                  67  84  68  88  66 /  20  20  30  20  40
Boise City OK              64  82  62  87  63 /  30  30  50  10  40
Borger TX                  64  85  68  92  68 /  30  20  50  20  40
Boys Ranch TX              63  84  66  90  67 /  30  20  50  20  40
Canyon TX                  63  82  66  90  66 /  20  20  50  20  40
Clarendon TX               67  84  69  91  67 /  30  20  50  30  40
Dalhart TX                 63  82  63  87  64 /  30  20  50  10  40
Guymon OK                  66  83  66  89  67 /  20  20  40  20  40
Hereford TX                64  83  65  89  65 /  20  20  50  20  40
Lipscomb TX                67  83  68  88  67 /  30  20  40  30  40
Pampa TX                   66  82  67  90  68 /  30  20  40  30  40
Shamrock TX                68  84  70  90  69 /  30  20  50  30  40
Wellington TX              69  85  71  93  70 /  30  20  50  30  40

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

03/36



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