Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 180006 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
606 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS STARTING OUT THE PERIOD AT
KAMA AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BY 03Z...IFR CEILINGS
SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AT KGUY AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AT
KDHT...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 05Z. A FEW
SHOWERS OF -RA OR -FZRA ARE POSSIBLE AT KGUY BEFORE 06Z.
OTHERWISE...ALL SITES WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM SOUTHERLY TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM... STRONGEST WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SHIFTED EAST SO THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS AS WELL. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE AREA BUT
MOISTURE WILL BECOME SHALLOWER LATER TONIGHT LEAVING LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED IN COVERAGE
AND DURATION. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT BUT CLEARING IS IN QUESTION. A PERIOD OF PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AND APPROACH THE CONUS TOMORROW EVENING.

BOWERS

LONG TERM...
NEXT UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF
OR SO OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A COOL SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THE END OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND WEST TEXAS
SUNDAY. LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL AND POSSIBLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PACIFIC
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. AGAIN...LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS NEXT MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT COOLER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
BEHIND THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/18




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