Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 272119
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
419 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.Discussion...
No real big changes to the grids and forecast through the next 7 to 8
days. Chances for convection will continue during mainly the afternoon
into the evening hours each day although areal coverage will vary day
to day. Upper high over the Great Basin and four corners region will
allow for a mainly northerly and westerly flow aloft. Weakness in the
mid and upper flow today as inverted upper trough over southwest and
far west Texas should allow for convection just south of the forecast
area to lift north and west into the southern portions of the Texas
Panhandle by this evening. Subsidence across the central and northern
portions of the Panhandles should allow for dry conditions through
tonight. However, if convection develops north of the Oklahoma
Panhandle this evening and tonight, the convection may track south
and east across mainly the northern and eastern portions of the
forecast area tonight and again Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

Better chances for convection expected during the latter half of this
week into the weekend as the upper high builds south and east across
the southern Rockies and upper troughs over the central Rockies
triggers scattered to numerous convection over the mountains and
higher terrain which propagates south and east into the Panhandles
during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours. Surface low over
southeastern Colorado this evening with frontal boundary draping east
and south across the Oklahoma Panhandle into northern Oklahoma or
southern Kansas will remain quasi-stationary through much of this
week. Depending on areal coverage of convection each afternoon and
evening/nighttime hours, the frontal boundary may sink further south
into the Panhandles or lift north into Kansas. This would make
temperature forecasting a bit challenging this week with possibly
cooler temps across the north or central should the front plunge
further south with increased areal coverage of convection or even
warmer should the front retreat further north with decreased areal
coverage of convection. Will stay close to previous shift temp grids
and forecast for now.

Schneider

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                65  90  66  94  68 /  20  30  10  10  20
Beaver OK                  67  92  68  96  69 /  50  30  20  30  30
Boise City OK              64  90  65  94  64 /  30  20  20  20  30
Borger TX                  67  93  70  96  71 /  30  20  10  20  20
Boys Ranch TX              65  92  67  96  68 /  20  20  10  10  20
Canyon TX                  64  90  66  93  68 /  20  20  10  10  20
Clarendon TX               67  91  67  93  69 /  20  30  10  10  20
Dalhart TX                 64  91  65  94  66 /  20  20  10  10  20
Guymon OK                  66  92  68  97  67 /  40  30  10  20  20
Hereford TX                63  90  66  93  67 /  20  20  10  10  20
Lipscomb TX                66  91  68  95  70 /  50  30  20  30  30
Pampa TX                   65  90  67  93  69 /  30  30  10  10  20
Shamrock TX                68  92  69  94  71 /  30  30   5  10  20
Wellington TX              70  94  70  95  72 /  30  30   5  10  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/11


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