Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

000
FXUS64 KAMA 202113
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
413 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Latest satellite image is showing cumulus cloud building across
most of the Panhandles, especially across the western Panhandles
near the surface trough over NE New Mexico and SE Colorado where
showers and storms are initiating over the high terrain as well
into portions of SW Kansas. Satellite wind profiles of
northwesterly flow of 15-25 kts at 600-450 hPa shows perhaps
enough flow to move these storms into the northern and western
Panhandles. As the storms move east, latest hi-res analysis shows
good DCAPE environment of around 1500 J/kg in-conjunction with
shear of 30-40 kts. With supporting inverted-v forecast soundings
over parts of the northern Panhandles, if storms make it into our
region, strong winds will be the primary threat. Large hail cannot
also be completely ruled out. Storms should dissipate as we lose
daytime heating into the evening hours. Low temperatures tonight
will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

This similar pattern of diurnally driven storms will continue
throughout the remainder of the work week with best chances across
the northern and western Panhandles. As an upper level high
pressure sits over AZ/NM, these bouts of energy riding over the
ridge will help initiate convection over the high terrain over CO
and NM and move southeast over our region. Some of the storms on
Wednesday could also be strong and will be monitored with updates
to the forecast as we get closer.

A cold front will slowly move from north to south across the
Panhandles during the day on Friday. Along and out ahead of the
front, showers and storms may develop with the given surface
forcing. Latest 25/12Z models are not in accord once we go past
Friday night. ECMWF is drier compared to the GFS going forward as
the main 800-600 hPa temperatures advection lags behind the main
front. This may provide additional mid level instability as the
temperature contrast swings thorough the region, hence slight
chances POPS remains through the weekend as a surface trough may
set up across eastern NM providing diurnally driven convection.
Blended guidance reflects current precipitation forecast. The
main weather change behind the front will be nice cool air
returning to region with highs on Sunday in the 70s.

Upper level ridge of high pressure looks to build back north as
we go into next week. This will bring tranquil conditions back to
the region, with only a slight chance of a shower or storm in the
far western areas. Otherwise, temperatures will warm up to near or
slightly above average as we go into next week.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                70  94  66  95  67 /  20   5  20   5  10
Beaver OK                  71  99  67  99  66 /  20   5  30  10  20
Boise City OK              65  98  63  98  63 /  20  20  20  20  10
Borger TX                  73  98  69  98  69 /  20   5  20  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              70  98  65  98  68 /  20  10  20  10  10
Canyon TX                  70  95  64  96  67 /  10   5  20   5  10
Clarendon TX               69  92  66  92  67 /  10   5  20   5  10
Dalhart TX                 68  98  64  98  65 /  20  20  20  20  10
Guymon OK                  70  99  66  99  66 /  20  20  30  10  20
Hereford TX                70  95  64  96  68 /  10   5  20   5  10
Lipscomb TX                71  97  68  97  67 /  20   5  20   5  20
Pampa TX                   69  94  64  92  67 /  20   5  20   5  10
Shamrock TX                69  95  68  94  68 /  10   5  20   5  10
Wellington TX              70  96  67  94  69 /   5   5  10   5  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/29



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.