Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 180921
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
400 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  HAVE LEANED
HEAVILY UPON SOLUTION FROM 00Z ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF REMANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.  OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
PLAINS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH 700 MB VORTICITY LOBE WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT AS IT MOVES NORTH.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS 700 MB CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA...ADDITIONAL MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.  HEAVY RAINS WILL BE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY DURING THIS TIME...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR EARLY FRIDAY.

SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS BASED ON EXPECTED
MOVEMENT OF PARENT SYSTEM.

LOW POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED OR SLIGHTLY INCREASED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW DURING THIS
TIME.  LOW POPS RETAINED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NECESSARY
THRESHOLDS AND FUELS ARE MOISTENED BY WETTING RAINS.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                79  62  78  61  81 /  30  40  60  70  50
BEAVER OK                  91  65  84  66  80 /   5  10  30  70  50
BOISE CITY OK              84  59  81  61  80 /  10  20  60  60  20
BORGER TX                  85  65  80  66  83 /  20  20  60  70  50
BOYS RANCH TX              81  64  80  61  81 /  30  40  70  60  40
CANYON TX                  77  62  76  61  81 /  40  40  60  70  40
CLARENDON TX               83  65  79  65  81 /  30  30  60  70  50
DALHART TX                 82  61  77  60  82 /  20  30  70  60  30
GUYMON OK                  88  63  82  63  81 /  10  10  50  70  40
HEREFORD TX                74  62  75  61  80 /  40  60  60  60  40
LIPSCOMB TX                89  66  81  66  81 /  10  10  30  70  60
PAMPA TX                   85  64  78  64  81 /  20  20  50  70  50
SHAMROCK TX                87  66  80  67  81 /  20  20  50  70  60
WELLINGTON TX              87  66  80  68  81 /  30  20  50  70  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/03




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