Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 171722

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1122 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through 18Z Thursday for all three TAF
sites. Winds will be out of the SW becoming more W by 05Z
Thursday, with clear skies.



PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 415 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/


Noteworthy items again include the warm temperatures Friday
(near record territory...see Climate section below) and Saturday
which will warrant concern for fire weather conditions, and the
other item will be the small chance for precipitation Saturday
night into Sunday. Chances for precipitation have been consistent
the last 24 hours which warrants some increased confidence for
precipitation. However, it does appear the Amarillo area dry
streak will continue at this time.

Friday has been consistently showing well above normal temperatures.
This is also the case for Saturday afternoon. Confidence is pretty
high temperatures will be 15-20 degrees above normal for this time
of the year for most of the Panhandles Friday and Saturday. Upper
level pattern again has some very consistent signs through Saturday
night so feel these temperatures are probably on the right track.
These warm temperatures combined with dry conditions will result in
at least elevated fire weather conditions. Given its a few days out
we could see some changes. The one variable which is somewhat
marginal is the wind speeds. For high confidence there would need
to be stronger winds, but overall its borderline critical for
Friday with the current wind forecast, mainly for southern parts
of the Texas Panhandle. We still have about 48 hours to refine
these details and get the word out if a Red Flag will be needed
Friday. There could be two days of elevated fire weather concerns
at the very least going into the weekend.

In the upper levels an approaching upper level trough Saturday night
will be our focus for precipitation. Depending on where the surface
low sets up we could get some precipitation across the
Panhandles. Currently, the GFS and European have the surface low
going over the Panhandles or to the north, which will basically
dry slot us and keep most of the moisture to the north and
northeast. This was the case 24 hours ago as well, so confidence
is somewhat high much of the forecast area will be dry. Will keep
mostly 20-30 percent chances for precipitation across our
northern zones.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 504 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

12Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail through 12Z Thursday at all three TAF
sites. Southerly to southwesterly winds 5 to 15 knots will become
10 to 20 knots after 14Z to 16Z today and then diminish to 5 to
15 knots after 00Z Thursday at all three TAF sites.

Schneider. Should be mostly rain given the warm temperatures
expected, but there could be a period of rain and/or snow Sunday
morning as temperatures drop to below freezing. Overall it doesn`t
look like snow will be the overall dominant precipitation type
though as temperatures have been trending warmer the last several
days for the Friday-Saturday timeframe. Forecast soundings show
decent lapse rates around areas like KGUY with decent moisture in
the low levels where lift is available. Confidence is increasing
for the Oklahoma Panhandle and maybe northern parts of the Texas
Panhandle to receive precipitation. Would not be surprised to see
this chances increase over the next 24 hours if models continue
the consistency of the upper level trough and associated surface



Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Friday afternoon as
dry conditions evolve with breezy wind speeds. Friday afternoon will
be a well above normal day for temperatures as 70s are forecast for
much of the Panhandles. Relative humidities are going to bottom out
around 11-19 percent. 20 foot wind speeds will be around 15 to 20
knots in some areas. Overall the main threat for fire weather will
across the Texas Panhandle on Friday. Saturday is a lesser change
due to weaker winds, but the main threat will be across western
parts of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle.

If wind speeds increase in the forecast over the next couple of days
we may be in the critical threshold for fire weather Friday
afternoon. This is borderline at the moment but high ERC will
warrant some concern for a critical fire weather day on Friday.



For January 19th:

Amarillo.........75 set in 1986 (Current forecast - 72)
Dalhart..........78 set in 1986 (Current forecast - 72)
Borger...........75 set in 2000 (Current forecast - 70)



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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