Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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185
FXUS64 KAMA 170336 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1036 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.  COULD SEE
SOME HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL TREND TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...AND THEN DIMINISH DURING THE
LATE MORNING.  DEEPENING LEE TROF WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE PANHANDLES. CANCELLED TORNADO
WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ALSO CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY
AS SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO END FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND PACIFIC COLD
FRONT. HAVE CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ACCORDINGLY.

KB

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS. GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A POTENT UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT WAS SLOW TO MOVE EAST TODAY...BUT IS
FINALLY WORKING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WAS ROUGHLY
BISECTING THE CWA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT 21Z. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT HAS SHIFTED INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...AS WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ARE USHERING IN
DRIER AIR...REDUCING THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THESE WESTERN AREAS. WILL
HOWEVER CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT FOR STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE GUSTS
WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE WEST AS STRONG MOMENTUM FROM
THE MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW IS TRANSFERRED
TOWARD THE SURFACE. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT HOWEVER HAS SHIFTED INTO THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST INSTABILITY REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
ANY STORMS REDEVELOPING IN THIS AREA IN WAKE OF THE EARLIER
CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE LINEAR IN STRUCTURE OVER THE
PAST HOUR. PLAN TO BEGIN CLEARING THE TORNADO WATCH FROM WEST TO EAST
BEFORE LONG. CONVECTION AND ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PUSH
EAST/NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS EVENING.

WINDS ARE FINALLY INCREASING IN WAKE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...AND THUS
WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLES THROUGH 8 PM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER THIS
EVENING AS MIXING SUBSIDES AND THE LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN.

WE/LL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IN A CONTINUED
ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH LOW-
LEVEL POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW PROVIDING PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THIS
NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO WORK WITH. OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED FOR
AN ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK...WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY THE
PRIMARY CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL BE ON A
MUCH LESS ORGANIZED/MORE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED NATURE AS WE/LL BE IN
BETWEEN UPPER TROUGHS AGAIN. THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES BY LATE WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AGAIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/14





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