Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 201718 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1218 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES AS MOST PLACES WILL STAY
DRY TODAY. ALSO BROUGHT A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE TO THE NW HALF FO THE
PANHANDLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
KAMA AND KDHT...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z WITH
BRIEF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION AFTER
08Z.

KGUY...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THINK THERE COULD BE SOME
VCSH AFTER 08Z BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

KNS

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

THE REMNANTS OF WHAT ONCE WAS HURRICANE ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES...HOWEVER THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS COULD STILL POSSIBLY AFFECT THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY AND THEN INTO THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAINLY LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.

SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALSO DEEPENS BY MID NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY
TO WINDY CATEGORY. SURFACE TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP INTO A DRYLINE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THAT SOME CONVECTION COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE BY NEXT THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/09





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