Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 270953
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
453 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG PSBL EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE W AND SW
TX PNHDL...GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF PROGGED TO
EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY
TILTED FASHION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA COURTESY OF THE ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF...DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. RETAINED SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS
FOR THIS AREA. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. HAVE RAISED POPS CLOSER TO THE MEXMOS VALUES...
WITH A GRADIENT OF POPS IN THE GRIDS SUCH THAT THE CNTRL AND ERN OK
PNHDL HAS THE HIGHEST AND FAR SERN TX PNHDL THE LOWEST VALUES.

SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
LOSING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FCST AREA TUE...WITH ONLY LINGERING SLGT
CHC POPS OVER THE FAR ERN ZONES TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO NEXT FAST
MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS FCST TO AFFECT THE SRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER WED INTO EARLY THURSDAY. BASED ON LATEST
MODELS...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
E AND N OF FCST AREA. HAVE RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT
ACROSS FAR ERN ZONES. THE CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THRU THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. NO POPS AFTER
WED NIGHT.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                79  56  79  57  80 /   5   5   5   5  20
BEAVER OK                  85  59  84  60  83 /   0   5   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              81  54  81  56  79 /   0   5   5   5  30
BORGER TX                  82  60  82  62  82 /   5   5   5   5  20
BOYS RANCH TX              80  55  80  56  80 /   5   5   5   5  20
CANYON TX                  78  56  78  56  80 /   5   5   5   5  20
CLARENDON TX               81  59  82  60  82 /  10  10   5   5  10
DALHART TX                 81  55  81  55  79 /   0   5   5   5  30
GUYMON OK                  84  57  83  59  82 /   0   5   5   5  20
HEREFORD TX                77  56  78  56  79 /   5   5   5   5  20
LIPSCOMB TX                83  59  84  60  83 /   5   5   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   81  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                82  60  83  61  83 /  10  10   5   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              83  62  84  62  84 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







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