Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 131147
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
547 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Running way late due to a messy and complicated weather forecast
package for at least the first 7 periods. Strong and closed upper
level low pressure system off srn CA coast will affect our weather
beginning today and lasting into Monday morning with a variety of
weather expected. For today, light rain and light freezing rain have
been slow to develop due to dry air temporarily invading the srn high
plains in the wake of Thursday`s cold frontal passage. This is seen
by rather low dewpoints this morning. It will take some time today
for the atmosphere to moisten up sufficiently to cause precipitation
to reach the ground. Nearly all model guidance has lowered pops
substantially into the slgt chc category or even non-mentionable
values for today. Have trended in that direction.

Expect light rain and light freezing rain to develop tonight across
the forecast area, then increase in intensity later Saturday through
Saturday night. Current winter weather highlights issued earlier
remain plausible. Strong warm air advection will eventually cause
most precipitation to turn to all rain in the fcst area on Sunday.
The upper level storm system is then progged to track across wrn TX
and across the TX and OK Panhandles later Sunday afternoon into early
Monday morning with widespread rain...possibly heavy at times with
even some potential for tstms. As the cold core of the upper low
moves across the area Sunday night into early Monday morning,
precipitation will likely change to a rain and snow mix or even all
snow, especially across nwrn sections. Any snowfall accumulations
should remain light at this time. Beyond Monday night, medium range
models continue to diverge in handling the overall upper level
pattern so have retained a model consensus fcst for next Tuesday
through Friday.

Andrade

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                34  30  36  33  43 /  30  60  80  90  90
Beaver OK                  29  25  32  28  39 /  20  30  80  90  90
Boise City OK              35  27  36  30  38 /  10  30  80  90  90
Borger TX                  32  30  36  32  42 /  20  50  80  90  90
Boys Ranch TX              35  31  37  32  42 /  20  50  80  90  90
Canyon TX                  34  31  36  33  43 /  30  60  80  90  90
Clarendon TX               33  30  35  33  44 /  30  60  80  90  90
Dalhart TX                 35  29  37  32  40 /  20  40  80  90  90
Guymon OK                  32  27  34  29  38 /  10  30  80  90  90
Hereford TX                35  32  38  34  43 /  30  60  80  90  90
Lipscomb TX                29  26  32  30  41 /  20  50  80  90  90
Pampa TX                   31  29  34  31  42 /  20  50  80  90  90
Shamrock TX                32  29  35  32  44 /  30  60  80  90  90
Wellington TX              33  30  35  33  45 /  30  60  80  90  90

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for the following zones:
     Hemphill...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Roberts...Wheeler.

     Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST Sunday for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...
     Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson...Moore...
     Oldham...Potter...Randall...Sherman.

OK...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for the following zones:
     Beaver...Texas.

     Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST Sunday for the following
     zones: Cimarron.


&&

$$



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