Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 192318 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
518 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.UPDATE...
We didn`t measure a full hundreth at AMA, but decided to increase
pops slightly this evening to the east based on radar trends,
latest hi-res CAMs, and sfc analysis which shows cap has eroded
and 500 ML cape.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 451 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Main upper lift assoc w/ approaching trough is moving across the
Panhandles ATTM. Radar shows a thin band of high based shra
over AMA assoc w/ the leading edge of this feature, but as
expected lack of moisture is a severely limiting factor. There are
some sprinkles reach the ground at AMA as I type. Will continue
with 20 POPs in the east this evening just in case some of this
precip reaches the ground to the point of measuring as it moves
east, but QPF should be minimal.

A weak cold front will move across the area Monday in the wake of
the aforementioned upper system. This will cause winds to shift
north from NW to SE in the morning. A closed low will develop
across SE TX through TUE as the upper trough moves east and splits
into nrn and srn systems. Mid-upr level ridging will develop in
its wake leading to warming temps and large diurnal ranges given
low atmospheric moisture content and above normal SFC temps as
H85 thermal ridging develops across the area.

WSW-ENE jet streaks will strengthen across CO and eventually NM
in response to upper developing across the wrn US. This will lead
to sfc low pressure development across the cen Plains which will
likely result in strong SW winds on Thursday and critical fire
weather conditions as min RH values dip to near 10% given current
model progs. One caveat to forecasts has to due potential for
significant jet induced cirrus that given high h5-h3 RH fields
will likely be dense enough to account for in forecast and could
impact temps at least across the north both Wed and Thu. A Pacific
front will move across the area most likely late Thursday and
models show the H85 thermal ridge axis shifting SE through the day
as a result. The more substantial polar front will arrive Thu
night leading to much cooler conditions on Friday and into the
weekend. Lows should reach the 20s for first time in over a week
Sat morning but will recover nicely in the aftn to near 60 as
winds quickly turn back to a srly direction.

GFS is most agressive with a s/wv trough approaching from the
west late Sunday and it is generating significant QPF across the
east Sunday night. It seems the outlier wrt the strength of this
system as other models dampen the feature out much more as it
passes just north of the area. Given this, will continue to limit
POPs to 20 percent on day 7 despite higher superblend POPs which
are being heavily influences by the GFS.

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire conditions are expected each afternoon through
Wednesday. Dry cold front passages will produce wind shifts on
Monday and again Thursday night. Critical red flag conditions
appear likely for much of the Panhandles on Thursday in advance
of this front as strong winds which could gust as high as 40-50
mph develop in addition to very low relative humidity values. Will
have to watch how fast ERCs (which are currently near to below
average still) rise closely this week as Thursday approaches to
gain best handle on exactly how high the risk might be.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

88/88



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