Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 211000
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
400 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY
THIS MORNING. EARLIER WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA
HAS BEEN STUNTED BY A TRANSITION TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE NOW IN PLACE AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...STARTING TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS A FEW DEGREES OR LESS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES...WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FOG/FREEZING FOG FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING.

A FAIRLY COMPACT BUT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
CA WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS AZ TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS...A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN MODESTLY THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THIS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL SPELL SEVERAL DEGREES OF
WARMING FROM YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID
50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT THEN ACROSS TX ON SATURDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERLY
TRACK KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
PANHANDLES. HOWEVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE MAY GET CLIPPED
BY SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MOST OF THE CWA...THE MAIN
STORY ON SATURDAY WILL BE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. SOUTHWEST
BREEZES WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD
OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PUSH
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE END OF THE RECENT WARMING TREND...AS A COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD SOME CHILL TO THE AIR. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE LACKING FOR ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG FORCING WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS AN
UPPER JET AND TROUGH DIG SOUTHEAST. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES WHERE UPPER DYNAMICS AND
STRONGEST LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LOOK TO LINE UP
BEST...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...WILL CARRY SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS LOWER.
THE CHANCES FOR ANY SUCH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING.

AN AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HEIGHTS WILL RISE BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST
UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD. THUS MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL LOOK
ON TRACK FOR THE BIG TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
LIKELY REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND BEYOND REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE AT THIS POINT AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO LACK CONSISTENCY FOR THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS...PAINTING A MUCH WARMER AND DRY SCENARIO COMPARED TO ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SLAMMED AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING
DAY. IN FACT...THIS LATEST ECMWF RUN KEEPS THE COLD AIR WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY AND GO WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES UNTIL SOLUTIONS
START TO STABILIZE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                61  39  67  36  51 /   0  10  10   5  10
BEAVER OK                  54  35  65  36  52 /   0  10  10   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              57  31  66  33  48 /   0   0   0   5  20
BORGER TX                  60  41  67  38  51 /   0  10  10   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              63  37  68  36  53 /   0   5  10   5  20
CANYON TX                  65  40  68  35  53 /   0  10  10   5  10
CLARENDON TX               60  41  66  38  59 /   0  20  20   5  10
DALHART TX                 60  29  65  31  48 /   0   5   5   0  20
GUYMON OK                  58  31  66  33  50 /   0   5   5   0  10
HEREFORD TX                66  39  67  36  54 /   0  10  10   5  20
LIPSCOMB TX                55  39  65  39  56 /   5  10  10   5  10
PAMPA TX                   60  40  64  37  50 /   0  10  10   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                58  41  66  39  59 /   5  30  30  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              58  42  66  40  61 /   5  40  40  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/08





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