Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 192021
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
321 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight Through Saturday)...

Latest surface observations continue to show some surface boundary
setting up across the bottom two row of counties in the Texas
Panhandle. With dewpoint temperatures in the lower to mid 60s across
the southern TX Panhandle, in-conjunction with SBCAPE around 2000
J/kg, some convection well out ahead of the main cold front may
develop along a secondary surface boundary. Latest run of the
NAM/HRRR shows convection firing along and south of the boundary,
especially across the SE TX Panhandle in-conjunction with DCAPE
around 1200 J/Kg will provide an elevated chance of strong to near
severe wind gusts possible with these thunderstorms. Other
convection may develop in the NW panhandles as convection
development in the high terrain of New Mexico moves east in the 700
hPa mean flow. These storms across the far western OK Panhandle and
NW TX Panhandle show low severe potential at this time. However,
severe weather cannot be completely ruled out with H500 temps
between -7C to -9C along with better bulk shear values between 25-30
kts as we go further into the afternoon which can support some
further vertical ascent and some organized convection.

More widespread thunderstorms are possible as the main cold front
across the central plains makes its way south toward our region.
Latest model guidance shows the timing of the cold front starting
across the northern parts of the region around 02-03Z Saturday and
reaching the southern TX Panhandle by 05-07Z Saturday. As the front
moves south across the region, in its wake, winds will shift to the
north with gusts over 20 kts possible. Convection along the cold
front itself may produce some thunderstorms near severe criteria
with gusty winds being the main threat. As we go past 12Z Saturday,
conditions will improve across the Panhandles as the main cold front
will be moving south of our region. High temperatures as we go into
Saturday will range from upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night Through Friday)...

Looks like the cold front will stall somewhere from NE Texas south
into Cen TX and back NW into NM as the main upr trough moves east across
the great lakes Sat-Sun. That said, sometimes convection along the
boundary will push stalling fronts further south into TX than models
think this time of year. Low level should winds will turn SE by
Sunday across the Panhandles allowing the onset of moisture recovery.
A decent southern stream trough will move into CA by Monday with srly
flow increasing and aiding in moisture transport on Monday. Models
show enough increase in moisture and instability for storms on
Monday, but not sure how much I am buying that. Kept 20 pops across
the SE third per model blends for now. Influence of the upr trough
approaching from the west will increase Tue-Wed. Current forecast
show better POPS on WED assoc w/ this system, however timing remains
in question and latest model trends seem to have sped things up
somewhat. Either way, it appears the trough will provide a good
chance for storms somewhere in the Tue-Wed timeframe across the area.
Similar to today, it appears we may see an initial weak front in the
area followed by a stronger secondary frontal boundary assoc more
with a NRN stream trough dropping into the NRN plains on Tue. There
is very little confidence in the forecast beyond Wednesday as models
are not in good agreement wrt timing of the second stronger front and
arrival of drier air from the north. This has led to a broadbrush of
slt chc to low end chc POPs in model blend forecasts Thu-Fri as
additional vort maxes moves into the region from the WNW, however
POPs strongly depend on how much drying occurs in the wake of the
Tue-Wed upr trough and fronts. If drying is too significant, the
disturbances will pass with little fan-fair. After seeing above
normal temps all summer, the recent below normal trend in high temps
is expected to continue except perhaps Tue ahead of the next front
and upper systems.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                60  77  59  82  60 /  60  20   5  10  10
Beaver OK                  61  78  57  86  61 /  40   5   0   5   5
Boise City OK              54  75  57  83  59 /  40  10   5  10   5
Borger TX                  63  79  61  85  62 /  40  10   5   5   5
Boys Ranch TX              61  79  58  84  60 /  60  20   5  10  10
Canyon TX                  60  78  58  82  59 /  60  20   5  10  10
Clarendon TX               64  79  61  84  60 /  60  20   5   5  10
Dalhart TX                 60  77  58  84  59 /  40  10   5  10  10
Guymon OK                  59  78  58  86  61 /  40  10   5   5   5
Hereford TX                61  78  59  82  59 /  50  20   5  20  10
Lipscomb TX                63  79  58  86  61 /  40  10   0   5   5
Pampa TX                   61  78  59  84  60 /  50  20   5   5   5
Shamrock TX                66  80  60  85  62 /  60  20   5   5   5
Wellington TX              67  82  61  86  63 /  60  20   5   5   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/88



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