Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 220528
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1128 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EVENING PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT KDHT AND
KAMA BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF KGUY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS.

BRB

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE FCST AREA MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONTAL TIMING AND
HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA...PRECIP THREAT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WERE UTILIZED
ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE PNHDLS MONDAY. POPS MONDAY NIGHT ARE HIGHEST
IN SWRN TX PNHDL...DROPPING TO NON MENTIONABLE ACROSS NERN AND FAR ERN
ZONES. PRECIP WILL START OUT AS LIGHT RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SNOW FROM NW TO SE MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE AND THE FAST MOVG NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
ITSELF...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH AT ANY ONE
GIVEN LOCATION. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER IS FCST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
THEN DOWNRIGHT WINDY ON TUESDAY. SOME SORT OF WIND HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORESEEN ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STRONG
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SLATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN FOR NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NO POPS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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