Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 021140
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
540 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...SHIFTING CURRENT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY...GUSTING
OVER 30 KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10
KTS AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CIGS WILL IMPACT KGUY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE
FRONT. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KDHT EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT MORE PREVALENT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT
KAMA...BUT ALL THREE TERMINALS WILL SEE CIGS AROUND 3500 FT AGL FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES AT KGUY
THIS MORNING...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO THE BETTER PART OF THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES YESTERDAY HAS CONTINUED ITS EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. THIS POSITIONING IS
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS SUGGESTED AND AS A
RESULT HAS KEPT SNOW TO A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.
NOW THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES LATER ON THIS
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF COLORADO AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THESE CHANCES REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE FURTHER
SOUTH. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS..IF ANY...ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT
AND LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. AS SUCH HAVE EXPIRED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR CIMARRON COUNTY EARLY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALL FLURRIES
SHOULD END AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO IOWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM THE PANHANDLES WILL SEE SLOW HEIGHT RISES IN DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF
COLORADO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS
DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN PRIOR TO THIS
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND THUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DRY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY AND SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE THE DAYS WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE LOW
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT WE MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION. THE GFS/CMC
ARE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOW THAT THE WESTERN PANHANDLES MIGHT
SEE SOME RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE INTRODUCED LOW END POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS CHANCE BUT
EXPECT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS WE GO THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

8/14


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