Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 301741
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1241 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT
KGUY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AT KDHT AND KAMA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT PROBABILITY OF
EITHER OF THE THREE TERMINALS BEING IMPACTED IS LOW UNTIL MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL...CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR A PERIOD OF
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MID EVENING AND LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE PROBABILITIES DECREASE NECESSITATING A PROB30 GROUP THROUGH
EARLY MORNING. WINDS TOMORROW MORNING ARE ALSO CONDITIONAL ON
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT AND ARE MORE NORTHWESTERLY THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES. AMENDMENTS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE EVENING.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING OUT THIS MORNING BY FORMING
ALONG A LINE FROM NARA VISA TO HARTLEY TO BEAVER...WHICH IS A SIMILAR
PATH TO THE STORMS THAT DROPPED PRECIP TUESDAY. THE HRRR SHOWS THESE
STORMS CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH TEXAS PANHANDLE AND DIE
OFF AROUND MID AFTERNOON. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW PRECIP TOTALS OF
ANYWHERE FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS.
CONSIDERING PW VALUES ARE STILL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AND THE
SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORMS...ONLY 15 MPH...FLOODING WILL BE
THE BIG CONCERN.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TODAY...MORE RAIN
CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY FRIDAY
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER AS THE HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS. THIS WILL BRING THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS AS THEY COME
OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOW A BETTER CHANCE ON SATURDAY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS TO FORM SO BUMPED UP POPS A BIT. WITH THE
CONTINUATION OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...THE TEMPS WILL REMAIN
COOLER IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.

MB

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR SUNDAY ONWARD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR THE PANHANDLES. THE RIDGE CENTER
WILL REMAIN OVER NEW MEXICO TO KEEP THE PANHANDLES IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SHOULD KEEP OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE RIDGE SLIDING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO
THE GFS. THE FURTHER SOUTHERN POSITION COULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLY FEWER
PRECIP ROUNDS COMPARED TO THE GFS, BUT THIS WOULD OPEN THE PANHANDLES
UP TO POSSIBLY MORE INTENSE ROUNDS OF RAIN GIVEN BETTER DYNAMICS.
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP STRUCTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE POSITION OF
THE UPPER RIDGE.

CM

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/15





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