Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 190503 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1203 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

A cold front will move through the TAF sites this morning. It will bring
wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots from the north for much of the day.
Winds will then decrease into the 10 to 15 knot range toward sunset.
Skies are expected to remain VFR.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 627 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/

For the 00z TAFs, light southeast surface winds expected overnight
below a generally clear sky.  No overnight visibility restrictions
expected.  Cold front brings wind shift to north around 14z
Wednesday at northern terminals, and around 16z at KAMA.  Expect
surface winds to gust into the 25 to 30 kt range during the
afternoon.  VFR forecast continues next 24 hours.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 346 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/

Upper level analysis places high pressure over eastern TX with anti-
cyclonic flow extending over the southeast CONUS. Broad cyclonic
flow is situated over the Great Basin into the central plains
resulting in weak zonal flow over the Panhandles. Model are in
decent agreement with another cold front moving through the area
Wednesday morning through the early afternoon as the upper trough
amplifies some breaking down ridge over southeast. This will bring
gusty north winds and cooler temperatures to the area with lows in
the 30s and 40s Thursday morning and highs in the 60s Thursday
afternoon. Will need to watch for possible Frost Advisory criteria
with perhaps even a light freeze in the western OK Panhandle
Thursday morning as surface high pressure progged to move into western
OK. Temperatures will gradually rise back above average going into
the weekend as ridge builds back into the southwest CONUS. Dry
conditions will persist into at least the middle of next week as a
dry air mass stays with us through the extended. Models are
hinting at trough digging far enough south to bring some weather
towards end of next week...but confidence not too high at this

A brief period of elevated fire weather conditions are expected
Wednesday afternoon across the far western Texas Panhandle. RH
values will range from 15 to 20 percent as a cold front shifts
winds to the north at 20 to 25 mph. Some gust up to 40mph are
possible along the front where the pressure gradient will be
strongest late Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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