Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 180948
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
348 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
No major changes have been made to the going forecast.  Well
above-normal daytime temperatures are expected through Thursday
with highs 10 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit above climo.

Mid-level ridge overhead today will be quickly replaced this
evening with strengthening southwest flow ahead of next digging
shortwave trof.  This feature will lend support to development of
showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday evening.

Areas of fog have been included in forecast late tonight and
Sunday morning due to low-level moisture return.

Modest increase in instability over eastern sections, coupled
with strong shear area-wide will lead to thunderstorm development
with the potential for some thunderstorms in eastern sections to
become strong to marginally severe during the afternoon and
evening as dryline advances eastward.

Passage of weak cold front early Monday associated with shortwave
trof will have little impact on temperatures Monday.  Notable
warmup expected Tuesday through Thursday with highs near 80 in
some sections Wednesday and Thursday.

Strong shortwave trof approaches and passes Thursday, producing
windy conditions.  A wind advisory will likely be needed.  Texas
and Oklahoma Panhandles likely to be dry-slotted with this system
so no pops have been added.  Polar cold front with this system
brings Friday highs back to near climo, with bounce-back commencing
on Saturday.  03

Cockrell

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Although relative humidity values fall below 20 percent today
across western sections of the Panhandles, winds will remain too
light to produce elevated fire weather conditions.

Relative humidities remain above 20 percent on Sunday, precluding
elevated or critical fire weather conditions.  Increasing dry
southwest winds on Monday may lead to elevated fire weather
conditions across mainly the western half of the Panhandles.

Lighter winds are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely to occur
on Thursday, primarily across the western three-fourths of the
Panhandles as dry southwest winds increase.

Briefly elevated fire weather conditions may develop on Friday
across the southeast Texas Panhandle due to dry northwest winds.
03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                70  42  66  40  67 /   0   0  20   5   0
Beaver OK                  72  42  71  42  69 /   0   5  30  20   0
Boise City OK              69  38  64  37  65 /   0   0  20   5   0
Borger TX                  73  47  68  44  70 /   0   0  30   5   0
Boys Ranch TX              73  41  68  39  68 /   0   0  20   5   0
Canyon TX                  71  42  66  39  67 /   0   0  20   5   0
Clarendon TX               70  44  67  41  71 /   0   0  40   5   0
Dalhart TX                 71  39  67  36  68 /   0   0  20   5   0
Guymon OK                  71  42  69  40  69 /   0   0  20  10   0
Hereford TX                72  44  68  38  67 /   0   0  10   5   0
Lipscomb TX                72  45  68  44  71 /   0   5  40  20   0
Pampa TX                   69  44  66  40  67 /   0   0  30  10   0
Shamrock TX                70  45  67  43  72 /   0   5  50  20   0
Wellington TX              70  44  69  44  73 /   0   5  50  20   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

03/03



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