Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 221950
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
250 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

LATEST UPDATE...

19Z KAMA SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR 19Z HRX SFC OB SHOWS AN ENVIRONMENT
READY TO POP. WEAK SPEED BUT STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS NOTED IN
THE LOW LEVELS AS WINDS VEER FROM SE AT THE SFC TO SWRLY BY 800MB.
THE REST OF THE HODOGRAPH LOOKS PRETTY STRAIGHT, MEANING SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY WITH RIGHT MOVERS HEADING ESE AT
ABOUT 20KT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT EVENTS...MODELS HAVE
UNDERDONE EXPECTED CAPE VALUES A BIT AND A HEARTY AMOUNT OF SBCAPE
(UPWARDS OF 3000 J/KG) AND HAIL CAPE IS EVIDENT GIVEN STRONG MID LVL
LAPSE RATES. SEVERE STORMS SHOULD FIRE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR 2
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL (BASEBALLS AND BIGGER??) AND GUSTY WINDS THE
INITIAL THREATS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN VERY
IMPRESSIVE WITH HEREFORD`S DEWPT SURGING FROM 42F TO 54F IN LESS
THAN 3 HRS AND THEREFORE LCL HEIGHTS MAY NOT BE AS HIGH AS
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED (KAMA HAS CLOUDS BASES AT 3100 FT RIGHT NOW).
THE LOWER EXPECTED LCL HEIGHTS AND POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO THREAT TO
DEVELOP MORE RAPIDLY ARE PROBABLY THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES NOTED
BETWEEN THE LAST MESOSCALE UPDATE AND THIS ONE. ALL OTHER FACETS OF
BELOW 108 PM ANALYSIS REMAIN APPLICABLE.

MESOSCALE UPDATE #1 (108 PM CDT)...
MOTHER NATURE SEEMS TO BE POINTING HER FINGER IN OUR DIRECTION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD MAXIMIZE OVER
DEAF SMITH/OLDHAM COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN A STALLING COLD
FRONT AND ADVANCING DRYLINE. INITIATION SEEMS LIKELY SOMEWHERE WITHIN
A 50 MILE RADIUS OF VEGA, TX BETWEEN 3-6 PM.

IN SPITE OF ONLY MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR INITIALLY...INCREASING
FLOW ABOVE 500MB WILL PROMOTE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF UP TO 50 KTS.
WITH ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES AND NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY
INCREASING MID LVL HEIGHTS...WE COULD SEE A SITUATION WHERE THE
FIRST FEW UPDRAFTS GET TOPPLED AS THEY ASCEND INTO THE HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR. HOWEVER...THINK THAT BY LATE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL BE
OVERCOME BY A COMBINATION OF LOW LVL CONVERGENCE, ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY, AND INCREASING SHEAR IN THE LOWEST FEW HUNDRED
MILLIBARS.

WITH SOME MIXING OF DRIER PBL AIR EXPECTED...INITIAL CONVECTION
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED (LCL HEIGHTS OF AROUND 2000M).
HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION STORM BASES SHOULD
LOWER, ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING HOURS.

WITH MLCAPES UPWARD OF 2000 J/KG AND AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR...DAMAGING
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH
INITIAL CONVECTION. AS THE EVENT ROLLS ON...LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HORIZONTAL VORTICITY ADVECTION NEAR THE
IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE (52F IN BEAVER COUNTY, 74F IN HEREFORD AT
17Z) MEAN A TORNADO THREAT COULD DEVELOP. THIS THREAT WOULD BE THE
MOST NOTABLE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY BORGER TO PAMPA TO
WHEELER.

A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE NRN TX
PANHANDLE AND OK PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...BUT SEVERE THREATS LOOK
MINIMAL WITH THIS CONVECTION.

BJS

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING SEVERE CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS LOW
CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG LIKELY SET UP CAMP...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURRED HOURS EARLIER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY...FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY POTENTIAL
FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

SHORT RANGE MODELS HINT THAT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES. DO
THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO THINK SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES FOR TOMORROW WILL BE
MUCH LOWER THAN TODAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL PUSH ON INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY EVENING GIVING WAY TO
DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.

FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY FOR THE PANHANDLES. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE SPRING WEEKEND
TO GET OUT AND ENJOY...WITH EXCEPTION OF GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FAR LESS BREEZY ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY BUT DOWNSLOPING WILL STILL OCCUR ALLOWING HIGHS TO BE WELL
INTO THE 80S ALL THREE DAYS (FRIDAY-SUNDAY).

NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE PANHANDLES BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS ITS TREK TOWARDS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW...PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. IF A LOCATION HAD TO BE PINPOINTED RIGHT NOW FOR HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA WOULD BE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN RIVER. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS SLIM TO NONE THANKS TO
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND UNUSUAL CLOSED LOW TRACKING OVER THE
REGION. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH FORECASTS EXPECTED TO
MODIFY BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH
60S EXPECTED.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH
HIGHS SLOWLY MODERATING BACK UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY.

HURLEY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 25MPH TO 35MPH AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
WELL AS GREEN UP OF FUELS MAY PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

HURLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                50  75  53  83  53 /  40  10   5   5   0
BEAVER OK                  45  64  51  83  52 /  20  20  20  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              46  74  47  77  48 /  30  10   5  10   0
BORGER TX                  52  72  55  84  54 /  40  20  10   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              50  76  51  83  51 /  40  10   5   5   0
CANYON TX                  50  77  52  82  52 /  40  10   5   5   0
CLARENDON TX               52  72  56  85  56 /  50  20  20   5   0
DALHART TX                 47  75  48  80  48 /  40  10   5   5   0
GUYMON OK                  47  71  50  83  51 /  30  20  10  10   0
HEREFORD TX                49  79  51  81  51 /  30  10   5   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                47  65  54  83  54 /  30  20  20  10   0
PAMPA TX                   49  70  54  83  53 /  40  20  10   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                51  68  57  85  57 /  40  20  20  10   0
WELLINGTON TX              54  70  59  86  57 /  50  20  20  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$




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