Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 200737
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
237 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...
No significant changes were needed to the forecast. A 598 dm 500 mb
high remains positioned just east of us over central Oklahoma and
will move very little through Friday. This will ensure continued dry
conditions with little change in temperatures. Weak persistent lee
troughing will result in a surface pressure gradient supportive of
southerly flow with little downslope component. This should limit
temperatures from rising to levels experienced last week despite
around 6 dm anomalies at 500 mb continuing through the end of the
week.

Today and Thursday, subtle waves traversing the western and northern
periphery of the upper high along with terrain processes should
result in diurnal convection to our west. Aside from some cloud
debris reaching the northwest portion of the area potentially, no
impact to our area is expected. Subsidence is evident in forecast
soundings which should preclude any isolated convection from
developing in our area.

By Friday, mean ridging elongates to the west with some
deamplification on its east end and slight veering/strengthening of
mean flow over our area. This should support an increase in diurnal
convection further east along the Raton Mesa that could drift into
the western Oklahoma Panhandle and northwest Texas Panhandle late
afternoon and evening both Friday and Saturday. A continued slow
fall in mid-level heights is expected through the weekend into early
next week with increasingly perturbed westerlies across the central
and northern CONUS during this period. One of the more pronounced
waves that passes to our north Sunday may be enough to force a weak
cold front south into the area Sunday leading to slightly cooler
temperatures and perhaps greater coverage of convection. Kept low
probabilities of precipitation into mid week as riding amplifies to
our west and flow becomes more northwesterly per consensus of medium
range deterministic and ensemble guidance. This will mean possible
weak perturbations/mountain convection could impact at least the
northern portions of the area as often occurs in that pattern.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                96  70  98  70  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                 100  72 102  72 103 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              98  68  99  68 101 /   0   0   0   5  10
Borger TX                 100  73 101  73 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              99  71 101  71 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  96  70  98  69  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               97  70  99  71  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 98  69 100  69 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                 100  71 102  72 103 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                96  68  98  67  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                98  72 100  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   96  72  98  72  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                97  72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              99  73 100  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

15/17


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