Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 122313
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
513 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Winds will be light and variable through about 15-18z and
will then increase a bit out of the south around 10kts. Skies will
be mostly clear at all sites.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 236 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Slight recovery in temperatures across the west today as our winds
return to a southerly direction. This begins our roller coaster
temperatures which will last through the weekend and into the
start of next week. Another cold front will backdoor into the area
tomorrow which will knock our high temperatures back into the 30s
and 40s. We will see a quick recovery on Sunday as the highs
reach back into the lower 50s.

For the start of next week, we will see the upper pattern become
briefly zonal as a trough drops across the Upper Great Plains.
This trough will bring a stronger front to the area with much
cooler temperatures. Forecast models continue to hint at the
possibility of precip just behind the front mid-Monday. The GFS is
the most aggressive with these chances while the NAM and ECMWF are
much less optimistic with our chances. As we`ve seen this season,
our moisture return is greatly impacted when we have troughing
over the Gulf of Mexico leading up to the passing system. This is
the case leaning up to Monday with only a very brief period of
zonal flow over the Gulf. With this in mind, have kept POPs just
below mentionable for the time being. Should better model
agreement develop with time then POPs may need to be introduced.

The cold air associated with the Monday cold front could result
in negative wind chills Monday night into Tuesday morning. As of
now we are just short of Advisory level cold so stay tuned as we
get closer in time. Tuesday will be cold with the eastern half of
the area not warming above freezing.

Looking into the later half of next week, we should see a warming
trend from Wednesday into Friday. This will take our high temperatures
from the 30s and 40s on Wednesday to the 60s on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                16  42  23  54  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                   9  35  19  52  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              15  47  24  54  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  18  42  27  55  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              14  46  21  55  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  15  45  21  55  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               15  40  20  55  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 16  46  23  54  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  13  41  23  54  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                16  46  21  55  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                12  35  22  53  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   15  39  23  53  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                16  37  20  52  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              18  39  20  52  26 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/14



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