Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 141800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
100 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

For the 18Z TAFs:

VFR expected through the period. However, can`t rule out a brief
period of MVFR cigs around sunrise Saturday morning at all TAF
sites. Isolated thunderstorm development is also possible this
afternoon and evening mainly for the OKlahoma Panhandle and
northern Texas Panhandle. KGUY stands the highest chance of being
impacted, but not including mention in TAFs at this time due to
limited coverage of storms. Winds will around or less than 10kts
for most of the period.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 624 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017/


For the 12Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid TAF period. Main
concern will be whether or not showers/thunderstorms develop later
this afternoon and evening. The chances are best--albeit low
chances--across western and northwestern parts of the Panhandles
which would impact KDHT and KGUY. KAMA will likely remain dry
through this period. Chances were overall so low decided not to
mention showers/thunderstorms in the TAF.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 430 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017/

A closed upper low will remain fairly stationary across the
central Rockies and central Plains states through the weekend.
This closed upper low will be poised between two areas of upper
high pressure regions: one just to the east of the closed upper
low and one just to the west of it. Weak surface boundaries
located over the Panhandles and to the north of the forecast area
in combination with the closed upper low near the forecast area
and low level moisture across the Panhandles will result in a
continuation for chances of convection today and tonight, mainly
across the Oklahoma and northern portions of the Texas Panhandle,
and then Saturday through Sunday night across the remainder of the
forecast area.

Model forecast sounding PWat values across the forecast area today
through Sunday night are expected to increase into the 75th to
90th percentile for the middle of July suggesting that any of the
stronger convection may contain locally very heavy rainfall with
the possibility for localized flooding, especially with training
cells. The probability for severe weather today through Sunday
night is just too low at this time, however cannot rule out one
or two storms becoming strong with small hail and gusty winds.

Upper high to build back over the central Plains states early to
middle of next week allowing for drier conditions and max temps
climbing back into the mid 90s to around 100 or so by the middle
and end of next week.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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