Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 181104
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...RATHER QUIET SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE OFFING FOR TODAY.

A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL IMPACT THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN SUCH THAT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY LAST INTO SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE MODEL MAJORITY AND FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL RUNS. DECIDED TO PULL POPS FOR
TONIGHT FOR WRN TX PNHDL AND THEN REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
SATURDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE.

LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORWTAVE TROF WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND HAVE RETAINED SLGT
CHC TO CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REORIENTED THEM SUNDAY TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE FCST AREA WITH SLGT CHC VALUES WRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS...AND CHC POPS ERN ZONES. PRECIP TYPE THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS SOME PRECIP INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE INSERTED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR ALL OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 06Z...THEN DRY REMAINDER
OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CNTRL STATES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. MODELS DISAGREE IN HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR
STORM SYSTEM IN ALL ASPECTS RANGING FROM TROF ORIENTATION TO PROGGED
SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AREAS. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS THE FASTEST AND 00Z GFS THE SLOWEST. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
PRONOUNCED SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS SEEN FOR WEDNESDAY. THESE SW WINDS WILL LIKELY SEND THE
DRYLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY EWD INTO EITHER THE ERN ZONES OR PERHAPS WRN
OK BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. FCSTG WHERE THIS DRYLINE BOUNDARY SITUATES
ITSELF DURG THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME AND IS BEST HANDLED AS TIME GETS CLOSER AND MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO
RETAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR THIS WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THEN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                72  50  75  52  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
BEAVER OK                  74  50  79  53  77 /   0   0  20  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              74  49  76  48  72 /   0   0  20  30  20
BORGER TX                  74  53  80  56  76 /   0   0  20  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              74  49  76  50  76 /   0   0  20  30  20
CANYON TX                  72  50  75  51  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
CLARENDON TX               71  51  76  54  77 /   0   0  20  30  30
DALHART TX                 75  47  77  48  74 /   0   0  20  30  20
GUYMON OK                  75  50  78  52  77 /   0   0  20  30  20
HEREFORD TX                72  49  75  50  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                71  51  77  54  77 /   0   0  20  30  30
PAMPA TX                   72  50  77  53  75 /   0   0  20  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                71  51  77  55  78 /   0   0  20  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              71  52  77  56  79 /   0   0  20  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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