Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 202041 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
241 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Winds ended up stronger than advertised and RH values have dropped
to 10-15 percent for much of the region. We have issued a Red Flag
warning for the entire region except the SE 3 COs through 6 pm.
Also updated winds in grids based on trends and short term



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1207 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

A cold front continues to move south of the region and winds are
strong as high pressure is building into the area. AMA had peak
wind gust to 39 knots which overshot all model progs. NNW Winds
will slowly decline through the afternoon then drop off rapidly
after sunset. Dry conditions will provide VFR through the period.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 504 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

12Z Issuance...VFR conditions expected through the period for all
sites. Westerly flow will quickly turn northwesterly and become
breezy with gusts around 30kts. Winds will decrease after 00Z as
they slowly turn back to the southwest towards the end of the


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

Dry forecast continues through Sunday.  Thursday expected to be
windy with critical fire weather conditions.

Sharp 500 mb shortwave trof currently over western part of
forecast area expected to progress eastward today.  Associated
weak polar cold front will move through the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles this morning, with breezy north winds in its wake.
Lingering morning clouds expected to clear eastern sections early
this morning.

Above-normal daytime temperatures expected through Thursday as dry
trajectories allow ample insolation.

Next digging shortwave trof crosses the Rockies on Thursday, with
rapidly falling pressures creating windy conditions across the
Panhandles.  Strong west winds during the day will cause Thursday
high temperatures to be about 25 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

Polar cold front associated with this system passes Thursday
night, bringing highs on Friday close to climo.  Modest
temperature recovery commences on Saturday.  03


Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon
across all of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles due to dry north

Southwest winds on Tuesday will not be strong enough to
cause elevated or critical fire weather conditions.

Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop area-wide
on Thursday as a rapidly deepening low pressure trof sets up
across the eastern part of the forecast area. Deep west winds are
expected to mix to surface, aided in part by 500 mb winds above 60
knots overhead.

Briefly elevated fire weather conditions are expected during the
afternoons across western sections of the Panhandles on Wednesday,
Friday and Sunday as westerly winds increase into the 15 to 20 MPH
range.  03


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Gray...

OK...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.


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