Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 041142
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY...SUPPORTING BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CHANCES OF THESE AFFECTING ANY OF THE
TERMINALS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
HIGH-BASED CU BENEATH CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
HIGH REMAINS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY
TRY TO BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE
WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AIDING IN THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLES BY
NEXT TUESDAY WHICH WILL USHER IN A STRONG COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A 1015-1020 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOWS FOR A MUCH COOLER
AND MORE MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S. BIGGEST CONCERN FROM ANY OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
GIVEN FORECAST PWATS OF 0.75 INCH TO ONE INCH BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

6/11


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