Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 231104 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH
MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INSERT INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER SOME
EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE THEM AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/19





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