Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 270814
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
314 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Not much derivation from the previous discussion. A quiet near term
forecast is in store across the Panhandles with limited moisture in
the region. Latest 27/00Z model and probabilistic data suggest some
type of back door cold front late Wednesday into early Thursday
morning which should drop temperatures temporarily for a day or two before
rebounding by the end of the week into the weekend.

As we go into the weekend and into early next week, the model data
shows great uncertainty. Deamplification of the upper level ridge
over the central CONUS will bring a weak westerly to southwesterly
flow over the Panhandles. Although confidence is low at this time,
some showers and thunderstorms may work into western regions as some
Pacific flow tries to be reestablished across the Four Corners
region. However, the model data as in previous runs continues to
shows highest chances of POPS across our eastern zones. With no
sufficient moisture advection near the surface or mid levels, trend
is to continue to diminish POPS. Weak vorticity advection from the
west approaching the compressed ridge axis may help to produce an
isolated thunderstorm. Domain coverage is not consistent with the
latest models but any chances of any isolated thunderstorm would
occur in the far eastern Panhandles. Going into early next week,
tranquil weather conditions will return to the region as a southern
stream jet moves north of our region providing unfavorable upper
level dynamics for vertical ascent. High temperatures will be at or
slightly above average as we go into early next week.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                81  52  84  50  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  87  51  84  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              82  50  84  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  85  56  87  54  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              83  50  86  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  80  50  84  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               81  55  86  52  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 82  47  85  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  86  51  86  49  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                79  49  84  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                85  52  86  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   81  53  84  50  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                83  54  87  52  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              83  54  88  53  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

AVIATION...
Winds will become more west to southwest toward sunrise and then they
will turn more southerly by sunset, but they should remain at 10
knots or less. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

15/29


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