Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 292113
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
413 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SPIN
EAST...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET MAX BRINGING A FOCUS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. PAY ATTENTION FOR UPDATES TO THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT FROM OTHER PRODUCTS AS APPROPRIATE.

THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THIS FORECAST ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW TIME FRAME. TRIMMED AND REDUCED POPS TO HIGHLIGHT
GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS
FOR A LINE OF POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO NEAR THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE PANHANDLES FROM NM/CO TONIGHT AROUND 6-7 PM. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH
AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHED
BY 10 PM.

TUESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...AS A SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA
AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARBY. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD GENERATE 30-40KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...AND MLCAPE AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SUGGESTS A LOW
END CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY...AND
FOCUS TURNS TOWARD A DECENT COLD FRONT PLUNGING FROM CO/KS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD DRAG THIS
FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH THE CURRENT
THINKING BEING ON THE FASTER SIDE. THESE EARLY SEASON COLD FRONTS
TEND TO BE ON THE QUICK SIDE. IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KNOCK BACK
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES AND USHER IN A LITTLE DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION. WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH. QUIET WEATHER THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                59  83  55  84  52 /  30  10  10   5  10
BEAVER OK                  63  83  57  84  54 /  40  20  20  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              55  79  50  79  48 /  70   0   5   5  20
BORGER TX                  62  84  59  87  55 /  30  10  10   5  20
BOYS RANCH TX              60  84  53  83  52 /  50  10  10   0  10
CANYON TX                  59  83  58  84  51 /  30  10  10   0   5
CLARENDON TX               62  84  60  88  57 /  20  30  30  10  10
DALHART TX                 56  82  50  80  48 /  70   5   5   0  10
GUYMON OK                  59  83  53  82  51 /  60  10  10   5  20
HEREFORD TX                59  82  57  83  51 /  30  10  10   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                65  84  60  86  56 /  30  30  30  10  20
PAMPA TX                   61  81  57  85  54 /  30  20  20  10  20
SHAMROCK TX                63  84  60  89  59 /  20  20  30  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              63  86  63  91  59 /  10  20  30  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06




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