Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 261141 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
641 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAFs, it appears tstm coverage through tonight will be
less overall compared to past few days. It appears the relatively
greatest threat of tstms will be at KGUY, followed by KDHT, then KAMA
durg this fcst cycle. However, due to expected less coverage of
precipitation through early Saturday morning, confidence is low that
tstms will impact any one particular TAF site. Therefore, have
refrained from mentioning this weather element for this cycle.

Andrade

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
At 08z storm activity is trending down with mostly stratiform
precipitation with light showers over our eastern zones.
Moreover...will cancel the Flood Watch as flooding is no longer
expected with this activity. Additional rain amounts less than a
few tenths of an inch expected in the watch area.

Otherwise...the upper trough axis over the western CONUS
continues to slowly advance eastward with 595 DAM ridge spinning over
the southern Appalachian Mountains per water vapor imagery. Short
and medium range numerical guidance prog a weak disturbance to
move over the OK Panhandle later today as the frontal boundary
retreats northward. While there is some uncertainty how far north
the front will retreat...most guidance does have it as far north
as southern KS by tomorrow evening. Convection will once again
initiate near this front and may have some modest upper level
dynamics to work with as disturbance moves through with best
chances over the northern TX panhandle and OK Panhandle. Further
south...The combination of decent moisture fields and weak upslope
flow will also lead to at least isolated thunder potential but
with weaker upper level flow. The northern zones will have the
best chance for stronger storms. Inverted-v soundings with steep
LL lapse rates will result in strong wind gust potential. Model
soundings also show very little CIN during the afternoon but also
not much buoyancy with skinny CAPE profiles resulting in a lower
hail threat. Vertical shear will be best in the OK Panhandle where
the best mid level winds will reside during the evening resulting
in 30-35kts. Temperatures will be tricky with yesterdays rain and
depending on how far north the front gets. Went a few degrees
below guidance based on these factors...especially across
southeast zones.

For the weekend into next week...models continue to show upper
trough slowly deamplify with flow becoming more zonal towards
Sunday. Surface flow will continue to be favorable for some
moisture return through the early part of next week. Diurnally
driven thunderstorms are possible each afternoon for portions of
the area until models show upper ridge amplify Tuesday into
Wednesday as trough begins to dig in over PAC NW.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$



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