Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 252217
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
517 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Current satellite and radar show showers and storms that engulfed
the Panhandles this morning and early afternoon have almost exited
the area. The northeast Panhandles will see these showers for
another 1 to 3 hours. A shortwave trough behind these showers will
allow for some lift but storms that move into the area that has
already been impacted by the surface cold front have been
fizzling out. Storms south of the front in the warmer area have
been holding together. It`s still possible that a few showers or
storms may make it far enough north to get to the I-40 corridor.

Expect some increase moisture return later tonight and scattered
showers or possible thunderstorms could return to the Panhandles.
The upper level trough over the western CONUS that has provided
this prefrontal southerly flow is now working its way west over
the Central Plains and towards the Great Lakes. The surface front
that has brought cooler northerly flow will likely stay in place
through the majority of the work week, with Thursday and Fridays
flow more out of the east. As a result high temperatures will be
about 15 degrees below normal Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures
slightly recover on Thursday and Friday, but still look to be 5 to
10 degrees below normal.

Expect the trend of showers and thunderstorms with moderate to
heavy rain to continue this week. While the aforementioned upper
level trough will pass across the northern Plains this week, at
the same time a cut-off low is working on setting up over the
southern NV, western AZ area. This low is expected to stall out as
high pressure attempts to build over the Western US. The position
of this low could dictate just how much moisture gets pushed into
our area as we will be predominantly under a moist southwest flow
aloft. The low will slowly lift north until the start of the
weekend, where it looks like another upper level trough will
impact the Pacific Northwest and aid in accelerating the cut-off
lows exit to the north over the Wyoming and western Montana area.

Residual moisture will allow for convective showers to occur with
warming due to daytime Friday and Saturday, as the cut-off low
will be well to the north by this time. Model diverge a bit with
the extended solution. Overall a warming trend toward at least
near normal temperatures is expected starting Sunday, as either
strong southerly flow ahead of another trough sets up over the
Panhandles(GFS model, more moist solution), or high pressure that
has been setting up over the OK/AR area attempts to strengthen
with the Panhandles under drier southerly flow aloft (ECMWF
model, dry solution). Right now high temperatures Sunday and
Monday are only in the mid 70s to near 80, but if these solutions
continue to suggest the warmer air, we will likely need to have
most of the Panhandles into the 80s.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...Previous Discussion...
MVFR/LIFR TAFS expected for the TAF period. Low clouds likely to
persist for the next 24 hours. Current satellite and radar
indicate that storms may be diminishing from the western
Panhandles. KDHT may only see precipitation here over the next
hour, as a storms is moving over the TAF site, then see VCSH for
the next few hours. KAMA should see rain with some thunder for
through about 20Z then may see a break as well. KGUY is expected
to see showers pick up around 19z and should persist through about
21z as a TEMPO group has this covered. Will amend TAF if showers
persist. Break in the precipitation after 22Z for most of the
area. Showers may develop on the back side with afternoon heating,
but confidence is too low and will amend TAFS as needed. Winds
out of the north 10-15 at KDHT and KGUY, with KAMA following here
by about 20-23Z. Due to high moisture across the Panhandles and
continued low clouds, IFR- LIFR conditions possible in the early
morning hours and can`t rule out morning fog with low visibility.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                52  60  51  60  49 /  70  40  30  70  50
Beaver OK                  52  63  51  66  52 /  60  30  20  30  20
Boise City OK              47  60  45  61  45 /  30  20  20  30  50
Borger TX                  54  63  54  62  51 /  70  40  30  60  50
Boys Ranch TX              53  61  51  63  49 /  60  30  30  60  60
Canyon TX                  53  60  50  60  49 /  70  40  30  70  60
Clarendon TX               56  63  52  62  52 /  80  60  50  70  50
Dalhart TX                 50  60  48  62  48 /  40  30  20  50  50
Guymon OK                  50  62  48  63  50 /  40  30  20  40  30
Hereford TX                53  59  50  60  50 /  70  40  30  70  60
Lipscomb TX                54  63  53  64  52 /  70  50  30  50  30
Pampa TX                   52  61  51  61  51 /  70  50  40  60  40
Shamrock TX                57  65  54  64  53 /  80  60  50  70  50
Wellington TX              59  66  55  65  54 /  80  70  60  80  50

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/89


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