Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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323
FXUS64 KAMA 161133
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
533 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...
Low CIGS will allow for IFR and LIFR categories are to continue over
the next 6 to 12 hours at all TAF sites. Bands of wrap around snow
continue over the Panhandles. These should be done by 18-21z today.
Low clouds may still linger, at least for the next 6-12 hours.
Earliest VFR conditions could start by 16Z at KAMA with KDHT not far
behind by 19Z. KGUY may not see VFR until after 00z. winds will
generally be out of the northwest 10-15kts.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 433 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low is currently moving northward across the Panhandles. This
low produced a band of heavy snow along the western I-40 corridor
earlier in the night which brought 2 to 4 inches of snow to that
area. This band has since weakened considerably as the upper low
moves further north and we have already seen clearing in the
southeast and far southwest.

Hi-res models shows the ongoing snow will drift northwards through
the early morning hours and mostly exiting/dissipating the
Panhandles by noon. There are a few models which show light snow
persisting over the far northwestern corner of the area, but think
that amounts will not be significant should this occur. As such, will
likely allow the Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warning
expire at 6am. Storm total snow amounts have generally been highest
across the southern Texas Panhandles where 1 to 3 inches fell (with a
maximum of 4.5 inches in Vega) while the northern Panhandles will
likely struggle to reach the inch mark once precip has ended.

As the upper low continues to progress east of the Panhandles on
Tuesday, we will remain under southwest flow aloft as another
low/shortwave moves out of northwestern Mexico. Medium range models
differ in respect to possible precip chances with this low. The
GFS/NAM keep precip just to our south and east while the ECMWF brings
a swath of rain across the southeast. Have stayed on the dry side of
solutions, but an isolated storm can`t be ruled out. As this low
lifts across the area around the middle of the work week, we will see
two more upper closed low take aim at the Panhandles. The first of
the two lows is expected late Thursday night into early Friday
morning. We could see some light precip across the OK Panhandle with
this first low, but there are other solutions that show us being dry
slotted. The second low is expected early in the weekend. There is a
bit of differences between medium range models on the exact track of
this low. AS of now have introduced low end pops for this system, but
expect changes to p-type and amount.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                43  27  49  32  58 /  10  10   5  10   0
Beaver OK                  37  26  45  28  54 /  40  10   0   5   0
Boise City OK              37  25  47  28  53 /  50  10   5   0   0
Borger TX                  43  29  50  34  59 /  10  10   5   5   0
Boys Ranch TX              45  26  51  30  58 /  10  10   5   0   0
Canyon TX                  45  27  50  32  58 /  10  10   5  10   0
Clarendon TX               46  29  51  33  60 /  10  10   5  10   0
Dalhart TX                 41  26  49  28  54 /  30  10   5   0   0
Guymon OK                  38  26  47  29  55 /  50  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                45  26  51  31  58 /  10  10   5  10   0
Lipscomb TX                40  27  48  31  57 /  20  10   0  10   0
Pampa TX                   41  27  49  33  58 /  10  10   5  10   0
Shamrock TX                46  29  51  32  59 /  10  10   0  10   0
Wellington TX              50  30  52  34  59 /  10  10   0  10   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for the
     following zones: Hemphill...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...
     Roberts...Wheeler.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...
     Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...
     Hutchinson...Moore...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Sherman.

OK...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for the
     following zones: Beaver...Texas.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     the following zones: Cimarron.


&&

$$

89/14



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