Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 172338 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
638 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KAMA. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EVENING. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE
KAMA TERMINAL THIS EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO DETERIORATE VISBYS BELOW VFR. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
..HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCREASES LATER THIS WEEK...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN
OUR WEATHER HERE IN THE TX AND OK PNHDLS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR
TONIGHT...A LAREG PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED OVER THE
AREA WITH AN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ADVANCING ENEWD FROM THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS INTO EXTRM SRN TX PNHDL THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY AND WENT WITH AREAL QUALIFIER WORDING FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS SRN TX PNHDL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION.

ON THURSDAY...SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS FAVORED FOR THE WRN AND SRN TX
PNHDL AS REMNANTS OF ODILE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL THEN SPREAD FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE FCST AREA.

IT APPEARS...BASED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THE REMAINS OF
ODILE...THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND
HAVE RETAINED THE LIKELY POPS AND EVEN RAISED SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
CONTEMPLATED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD BY LATER SHIFTS IF WARRANTED.

IF MODEL SOLUTIONS VERIFY...PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING SLGT CHC
POPS FOR SUNDAY APPEAR PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

IT STILL APPEARS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PROGGED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL EJECT
EWD AND NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE OFFERS
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE TX AND OK PNHDLS...AND HAVE
INCORPORATED SLGT CHC POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT AREAWIDE.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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