Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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598
FXUS64 KAMA 281737
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1237 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with mostly
clear skies for the majority of the TAF period. Expect KAMA to
remain SKC for the whole TAF period, while KGUY and KDHT will
likely see some SCT to BKN mid level clouds after 10Z. Winds will
be out of the north through midnight then will start shifting
southerly after 09Z. Wind speeds will be around 5-15kts through
the TAF period, with occasional gusts to 20kts.

Weber

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 503 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A few noteworthy items for this discussion include thunderstorm
chances next week, some of which could bring some decent rainfall to
the area starting mid-week and continuing through Friday by a
couple rounds of rainfall. Overall, temperatures will be right
around normal for this time of year.

Our next chance for thunderstorms will be Monday across mainly
western and central parts of the Panhandles. In fact, chances for
thunderstorms are in the forecast through the entire week beyond
Monday. This is not too uncommon in northwesterly flow aloft
through mid-week. We will be in northwesterly flow aloft through
at least Thursday before a trough begins to build in over the west
coast and help us get a pattern change. That being said, the long
term models are also not is good agreement. The pattern aloft is
hard to discern any decent upper level dynamics to support
precipitation, which leads to less confidence in the overall long
term forecast. That being said, several weak impulses are evident
within the northwesterly flow which could help support rainfall.
Surface forcing is also weak (to nonexistent) during next week as
well. Overall, the most noteworthy time period looks to be
Wednesday night for precipitation chances and rainfall. Overall,
some areas could see decent rainfall amounts as well during the
Wed-Fri timeframe, especially southern/southeastern parts of the
Texas Panhandle where half an inch (to upwards near an inch) is
not out of the question. Forecast soundings depict a very moist
atmosphere Wednesday evening and overnight where the best chance
for precipitation currently is forecast. Precipitable water
amounts are over an inch across southern parts of the Texas
Panhandle Wed. night approaching 1.50" which is well into the 90th
and above percentile. There isn`t a whole lot of CAPE during the
evening and overnight hours. There is however good isentropic lift
collocated with the deep moist layer shown in the forecast
soundings. The one outlier between the GFS, European (EC) and
Canadian models seems to be the EC. The EC is far less wet that
the other two. Fortunately we still have several days to get the
details for mid-week hashed out. Severe weather chances overall
do not look impressive through the long term. Monday could have a
few marginally severe storms in the later afternoon hours to early
evening. However, by the time stuff moves in from the west into
the Panhandles, it should be decreasing in severe intensity due
to the diurnally driven nature of these storms.

Guerrero

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                76  51  83  55  82 /   5   5  20  20  10
Beaver OK                  80  51  84  56  83 /   0   0   5  20  10
Boise City OK              73  46  79  49  78 /   5   5  30  30  20
Borger TX                  79  52  84  59  84 /   5   5  20  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              79  49  84  54  83 /   5   5  20  20  10
Canyon TX                  78  49  84  54  82 /   5   5  20  20  10
Clarendon TX               79  50  85  56  82 /   5   5   5   5  10
Dalhart TX                 77  47  81  50  81 /   5   5  30  20  20
Guymon OK                  77  49  83  52  82 /   0   0  20  20  20
Hereford TX                79  49  83  54  82 /   5   5  20  20  10
Lipscomb TX                79  52  85  58  83 /   0   0   5  10  10
Pampa TX                   77  51  81  57  82 /   5   5  10  10  10
Shamrock TX                81  53  86  59  84 /   5   5   5   5  10
Wellington TX              82  53  87  59  86 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/24



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