Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 251133 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
533 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG JET STREAK IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  LIGHT
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND TO SOUTHWEST BY
NOON.  SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON
AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.  AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED AROUND KAMA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
DECOUPLE.  LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TREND TO
LIGHT NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  NO EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AND QUESTIONS SURROUNDING
THE NEXT NOTABLE COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND HIGHLIGHT THIS FORECAST.

A PROGRESSIVE AND POSITIVELY TILTED UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSED
EASTWARD OVER WEST TEXAS WITH NO FANFARE OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE...A GENERALLY ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS SUCH...LEE TROUGHING WILL COMMENCE TODAY
WITH A SUFFICIENT MSLP GRADIENT TO SUPPORT BREEZY 15 TO 25 MPH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL BE DECREASED A
BIT IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WILL HELP TO PROMOTE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES TO THOSE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.

A WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO USHER IN A MIXTURE OF CANADIAN AND PACIFIC
AIR WEDNESDAY. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...THE INFLUX OF
THIS MILD AIRMASS WILL ACTUALLY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT
WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALL NWP GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTS
RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...
CLIMBING TO SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS APPEAR IN BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE NEXT
MEANINGFUL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH ORIGINATING OVER
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...THE CORE OF THIS AIRMASS IS PROGGED AT
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH AS IT EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS...COMPARED TO
1045 MB WITH THE PREVIOUS ARCTIC INTRUSION. BOTH THE LESS AMPLIFIED
FLOW ALOFT AND THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS AIRMASS ARGUES FOR A MORE
PERIPHERAL EFFECT...WHICH STILL WARRANTS A COOL DOWN OF NEARLY 20
DEGREE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY.

LINDLEY

FIRE WEATHER...
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH THESE CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH
ELEVATED THRESHOLDS...NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING
EFFECTS OF RECENT COLD/MOISTURE EVENTS WILL HELP TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT
FIRE POTENTIAL. IT IS NOTABLE THAT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM/DRYING
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT NO INSTANCES OF CRITICAL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

LINDLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  30  53  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  54  27  52  26  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              53  26  52  29  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  55  31  54  33  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              54  28  54  29  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  53  30  54  30  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               54  33  56  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 52  26  52  29  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  54  28  52  29  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                53  29  55  29  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                53  31  53  30  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   51  29  52  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                54  33  56  31  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              55  35  58  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.