Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 280550 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1250 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...INSERTED A VCTS ELEMENT AT KDHT FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THIS FCST BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THEREAFTER AS TO WHETHER OR NOT ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL IMPACT A
PARTICULAR TERMINAL SITE SO HAVE DECIDED TO OMIT THAT ELEMENT FOR THIS
FCST CYCLE. RETAINED A SCT MVFR CLOUD DECK AT ALL TAF SITES FOR LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. IT REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHETHER OR NOT ANY SPECIFIC TERMINAL SITE WILL
BE IMPACTED AND WHEN...SO HAVE OPTED TO RETAIN VCTS AT KDHT FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AND OMIT MENTION OF TSTMS AT KGUY AND KAMA AT THIS
TIME BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. AFTER A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BEGIN FORMING LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT ANY TAF
SITES WILL BE IMPACTED BY TSTMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AMENDMENTS
TO THE CURERNT FCST MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THE NIGHT UNFOLDS.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE LONG ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE HAS STARTED TO TAKE SHAPE TODAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL BE FURTHER
AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO
DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST...FURTHER DEEPENING THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WHILE THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING. HIGH-
RES MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE STORMS INITIATING ALONG THE FRONT LATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONVECTION PROPAGATING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OUT WEST AND MERGING WITH THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. TODAYS 12Z
KAMA SOUNDING IS ALREADY INDICATING THE INCREASE OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE AN
ADDITIONAL SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...FURTHER PRIMING THE
ENVIRONMENT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE GONE AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS HOWEVER MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH...TOWARD THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS MAY SHIFT THE
AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE CONTINUED FETCH OF
MONSOONAL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROGGED INSTABILITY OF AROUND
1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
25-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET MONDAY NIGHT WILL HELP SUSTAIN AND INCREASE
CONVECTION LATE MONDAY NIGHT WHILE STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN NEW MEXICO. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL LEAD TO A MUCH COOLER DAY WHERE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE
EXPECTED AREA WIDE.

LONG TERM...
HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY ON AS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THUS EXPECT INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE PROJECTED PATH OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL FOCUS
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AMA CWA AS
A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL FORM IN THIS AREA BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL ALSO PUSH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA...ALSO SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...FLOODING WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

MAY SEE A LULL IN STORMS BY FRIDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH WITH THE AREA
REMAINING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THE UPPER FLOW WILL VEER TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY
SUNDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF INDICATES STORMS MOVING INTO
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY BEYOND FRIDAY
FOR NOW BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THIS PERIOD
GETS CLOSER IN TIME.

HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WITH READINGS IN THE 80S.
EVEN COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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