Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 031038
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
438 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The near-term forecast remains complex as dewpoint temperatures have
helped to stave off colder surface temperatures and thus kept
snowfall limited. Locations that have been able to see snow have had
dewpoints drop to or below 34 degrees. Amarillo has been right on
the edge of this threshold but has recently dropped to 33 degrees.
Regional radar shows another band of rain/snow moving northward
across the Lubbock CWA and we should see this band move into the
southern Texas Panhandle over the next hour or two. Haven`t seen
temperatures cool much as the precip moves in so expecting snow to be
limited to an area north and west of line from Dimmit to Amarillo to
Beaver. There is a little leeway with that line as we could see snow
in slightly warmer locations but accumulations would be extremely
limited. The southeastern Texas Panhandle will remain firmly locked
into rain as the main precipitation type throughout today.

Hi-res forecast models shows the aforementioned band of precipitationcontinuing
across the Panhandles through the morning hours with a possible lull
for the western Panhandles once the band moves through until this
afternoon. Have kept snow amounts focused to the western Panhandles
for this morning (which we could see additional amounts up to 1 inch)
with a rather sharp gradient as you move eastward. This results in
storm total snow amounts remaining between 1 to 2 inches for the
western and northern Texas Panhandle including the light snow amounts
from overnight. As such have kept the Winter Weather Advisory as is
and will expect it to expire by noon.

We expect to see a transition from frozen precip back to liquid by
midday as precipitation continues across the eastern Panhandles. The
southwestern Texas Panhandle could see a second round of precip this
afternoon and into the evening hours. Have lingered chances into
early Sunday morning but think precip may clear prior to midnight.
This round should remain rain during the daylight hours but we may
see some snowflakes mix back in as temperatures drop during the late
evening and overnight hours. Not expecting enough accumulation of
snow overnight (if any) and thus not planning on extending or issuing
another Winter Weather Advisory for this time period.

Sunday daytime should be precip free as the upper low moves across
Mexico and southern Texas. Daytime temperatures should also moderate
and return to the upper 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures on Monday
should rise into the mid 50s area wide.

As we move into the middle part of the coming week we will see a
surge of arctic air drop across the Panhandles. An initial front is
expected on Tuesday and should drop our high temperatures into the
upper 30s and lower 40s. Tuesday night into Wednesday will see the
leading edge of the arctic airmass approach with the possibility of
precip for the Oklahoma and north half of the Texas Panhandle. As of
now have kept potential amounts around 1 inch. Our high temperatures
on Wednesday will be near freezing for the southern Texas Panhandle
while the Oklahoma Panhandle may struggle to reach the 30 degree
mark. Wind chills could also be an issue Wednesday night into
Thursday morning with values dropping into the -5 to -10 degree range
while winds are near 10 mph. Will watch this timeframe closely as a
Wind Chill Advisory may be needed in time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                40  29  49  29  57 /  70  20   5   5   5
Beaver OK                  40  26  51  26  54 /  60  10   0   0   5
Boise City OK              39  22  47  26  56 /  20   5   0   0   0
Borger TX                  41  30  50  31  57 /  60  20   0   0   5
Boys Ranch TX              40  25  50  26  58 /  50  10   0   0   5
Canyon TX                  40  29  48  27  57 /  70  20  10   5   5
Clarendon TX               43  33  53  31  57 /  80  30  10  10  10
Dalhart TX                 39  23  49  26  57 /  30   5   0   0   5
Guymon OK                  39  24  49  27  55 /  40   5   0   0   5
Hereford TX                40  29  48  27  58 /  70  20  10   5   5
Lipscomb TX                43  30  52  30  55 /  70  20   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   41  30  51  30  55 /  70  20   5   5  10
Shamrock TX                44  34  53  31  55 /  80  30   5   5  10
Wellington TX              45  36  54  32  55 /  80  40   5  10  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for the following
     zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hansford...Hartley...Moore...
     Oldham...Sherman.

OK...None.

&&

$$

89/14


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