Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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418
FXUS64 KAMA 270538
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1238 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 06z TAFs...
VFR forecast continues next 24 hours.  Stratus which has been
around GUY for the past few hours is dissipating as drier
northwest low-level flow becomes better established.  3.9-11.2 um
satellite imagery confirms this.  Cirrus expected to be main
cloud type observed through Tuesday evening.  Light northwest
surface winds expected to become light and variable as pressure
gradient relaxes, and to then become southeast or south around 15
kt during the afternoon.

Cockrell


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 606 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Tuesday. Northwest and north winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts near
30 knots will diminish to around 10 to 15 knots after 01Z to 02Z
Monday and then diminish to 5 to 10 knots or less after 04Z to 06Z
Monday. Winds will become east and southeast after 16Z to 18Z
Monday 10 to 20 knots at all three TAF sites.

Schneider

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 510 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Focus for this discussion will be on the small thunderstorm chances
today/tonight, as well as thunderstorm chances next week.

The track of the surface low has really dry slotted us today across
the Panhandles with dewpoints only in the 20s and 30s. Current
satellite analysis shows very a shallow cumulus field across eastern
parts of the forecast area with little vertical extent. Chances for
rainfall look minimal today across the forecast area with the dry
atmosphere in place over the forecast area. If we get any rainfall
it will likely be on the backside of the low with the wrap around
precipitation across our northeastern parts of our area.

Looking ahead at our next chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday there
does appear to be the chance for severe weather. Depending on the
track of the surface low and associated dryline there will still be
some unceratinty leading up to Tuesday. That being said, there will
be good return flow ahead of the dryline and we should get dewpoints
into the 50s across eastern parts of the forecast area. Better lapse
rates will be south of our forecast area though. Strong bulk shear
(0-6km) and most unstable instability around 1000-2000 J/kg
(depicted by the recent NAM and GFS) will be in place across the
forecast area. Forecast soundings all show good veering in the
column too, especially in the low levels where the NAM has 300-400
m^2/s^2 in the 0-1km zone. All in all, strong updrafts are possible
with the threat for large hail, damaging winds, and possibly
tornadoes Tuesday.

Beyond Tuesday we have several chances for thunderstorms but at this
time its too early to discern any potential severe weather. However,
chances are low at this time. Thudnerstorms are certainly possible
though.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

03/14



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