000
FXUS64 KAMA 170914
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
414 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Well above normal temperatures in the 80s are in the offing for
today as generally zonal flow aloft prevails. These highs are
about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
However, the lofty temperatures will not last long. A fairly
strong cold front will track southward across the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles late tonight and Thursday morning with much
cooler temperatures anticipated behind the boundary. Highs on
Thursday will likely only reach into the 60s with perhaps lower
70s across the far southeast Texas Panhandle. These temperatures
will be around 15 to 25 degrees cooler than highs foreseen today.
In addition, north winds in the breezy to windy categories are
expected Thursday due to a tight pressure gradient as cool surface
high pressure builds into the area in the wake of the cold front.
Short range models are in good agreement and were accepted.

02

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The below normal temperatures mentioned above will persist through
the weekend. The next upper level shortwave trof is forecast to
impact the region Friday night through Sunday morning and will
likely bring the next chance for precipitation. Specific details
such as rainfall amounts associated with this next storm system
remain in question given this is still 3 to 4 days out in time.
Nevertheless, medium range deterministic models and the associated
ensembles are in reasonable agreement with respect to timing and
were accepted. This translates to late Friday night into Saturday
as the greatest threat for precipitation to occur, and this is
reflected in the NBM pops. Rain chances diminish Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Dry weather returns area-wide by mid morning
Sunday through Monday as the upper level shortwave trof heads
east of the area and is replaced by an upper level ridge of high
pressure on Monday which will lead to warmer temperatures on that
day. NBM pops and temperatures look reasonable based on the progged
synoptic pattern and were incorporated into all periods of the long
term forecast.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

For the 06Z TAFs, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at KGUY,
KDHT, and KAMA through late Wednesday evening.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                85  50  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  87  46  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              82  42  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  89  52  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              87  48  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  85  49  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               87  52  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 83  43  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  84  44  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                86  49  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                88  51  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   86  51  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                89  53  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              89  53  72  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...02