Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 232350 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
650 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, benign weather is expected to persist for this
forecast cycle. A surface trof of low pressure will organize over
ern CO and ern NM on Monday, which will result in a tight pressure
gradient and a corresponding increase in southwest winds along
with attendant gusts by mid morning Monday. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail at all terminal sites through late Monday
afternoon.

Andrade

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strengthening near-zonal mid-level flow will continue through
Monday, with subsequent support for maintenance of lee trof.
Digging shortwave trof across southern Rockies passes Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles Tuesday night and early Wednesday, supporting
development of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across northern
sections, where wrap-around moisture with incoming dynamics will
be maximized.  Expecting a lull in convective activity Wednesday
afternoon through Wednesday night, but energized mid-level flow
quickly resumes, with low chances for thunderstorms resuming
again Thursday, again with northern sections favored.  Models and
ensembles agree that a closed mid-level low develops on Friday
over southern Utah, with strengthening southwest flow for
Panhandles Friday night through at least Saturday morning, with
healthy pops being retained.  Lots of disagreement thereafter
regarding track of closed low, with GFS being much slower and
farther south by Sunday morning, with its prediction of 500 mb
low over northwest corner of forecast area at 12z.  Low pops for
Sunday due to uncertainty of placement of features and nature of
moisture.  03

Cockrell

FIRE WEATHER...
Light to moderate south to southwest winds will prevail tonight.
Southwest to south winds will increase on Monday, with elevated fire
weather conditions expected over most of the Panhandles. On
Tuesday, west and southwest winds will lead to elevated fire
weather conditions across the southern half of the Texas
Panhandle. A cold front Tuesday night will lead to north winds on
Wednesday. West winds on Thursday may lead to elevated fire
weather conditions across the western Texas Panhandle.  03

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$



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