Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 310914
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
414 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING...FLANKED BY A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTH TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME FOCUSED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM INTO AZ...WITH A RATHER
DRY AIRMASS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE 0.69 INCH PWAT VALUE IN THE AMA
SOUNDING FROM LAST EVENING...WHICH IS ONE OF THE LOWER VALUES WE/VE
SEEN THIS SUMMER. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE MONSOON PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT EASTWARD TODAY AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND THE UPPER RIDGE. THE
MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CO/NORTHWEST NM...MAY AID THESE CHANCES. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM LATE AUGUST DAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GET A LITTLE
BREEZY TODAY AS THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS...WHICH COMBINED WITH WARMING
H85 TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE PATTERN DOESN/T CHANGE MUCH INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE MONSOON PLUME STILL BENT OVER THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. BOTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE LLJ AXIS MAY HELP A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN BE A BIT
BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS THE LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH SIMILAR
TEMPS TO TODAY EXPECTED.

HAVE KEPT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON PLUME DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THIS TIME BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE. HOWEVER CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT A STORM IN THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES THESE DAYS. LATE THIS WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE PAC NW...SHUNTING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD. THE
MONSOON PLUME LOOKS TO GET RE-ENERGIZED DURING THIS TIME BY SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF THE PAC NW TROUGH HELPING TO ADVECT THIS MOISTURE OVER THE
PANHANDLES. THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY
INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA AROUND LABOR DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ACTUAL TIMING WILL
OF COURSE DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH...BUT
IF THE FRONT MAKES IT IN BEFORE THE MONSOON PLUME ERODES...IT COULD
GREATLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. STILL A LONG WAYS OUT...BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                92  65  91  67  92 /   5   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  96  68  94  70  95 /   0   5   5  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              94  63  91  64  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
BORGER TX                  94  69  92  71  94 /   0   5   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              95  65  94  67  95 /   5  10  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  92  64  91  65  92 /   5   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               93  65  91  67  92 /   0   5   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 95  64  93  66  94 /  10  20  10  20  10
GUYMON OK                  94  66  92  68  95 /   5  10  10  10  10
HEREFORD TX                92  64  91  65  92 /   5   5  10   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                95  68  93  69  93 /   0   5   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   92  67  91  68  92 /   0   5   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                95  67  93  69  93 /   0   5   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              96  67  94  69  94 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/8


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