Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 031204

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
604 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016


Moisture from the south will continue to bring precipitation to the
area for the majority of the TAF Period. As a result LIFR to MVFR
conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. There may be some
periods of VFR for KGUY and KDHT due to brief breaks in the weather
during the day, but overnight expect that low clouds will dominate
all TAF sites. Winds will be 5-10kts through the TAF period.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 438 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

The near-term forecast remains complex as dewpoint temperatures have
helped to stave off colder surface temperatures and thus kept
snowfall limited. Locations that have been able to see snow have had
dewpoints drop to or below 34 degrees. Amarillo has been right on
the edge of this threshold but has recently dropped to 33 degrees.
Regional radar shows another band of rain/snow moving northward
across the Lubbock CWA and we should see this band move into the
southern Texas Panhandle over the next hour or two. Haven`t seen
temperatures cool much as the precip moves in so expecting snow to be
limited to an area north and west of line from Dimmit to Amarillo to
Beaver. There is a little leeway with that line as we could see snow
in slightly warmer locations but accumulations would be extremely
limited. The southeastern Texas Panhandle will remain firmly locked
into rain as the main precipitation type throughout today.

Hi-res forecast models shows the aforementioned band of precipitation
continuing across the Panhandles through the morning hours with a
possible lull for the western Panhandles once the band moves through
until this afternoon. Have kept snow amounts focused to the western
Panhandles for this morning (which we could see additional amounts up
to 1 inch) with a rather sharp gradient as you move eastward. This
results in storm total snow amounts remaining between 1 to 2 inches
for the western and northern Texas Panhandle including the light snow
amounts from overnight. As such have kept the Winter Weather Advisory
as is and will expect it to expire by noon.

We expect to see a transition from frozen precip back to liquid by
midday as precipitation continues across the eastern Panhandles. The
southwestern Texas Panhandle could see a second round of precip this
afternoon and into the evening hours. Have lingered chances into
early Sunday morning but think precip may clear prior to midnight.
This round should remain rain during the daylight hours but we may
see some snowflakes mix back in as temperatures drop during the late
evening and overnight hours. Not expecting enough accumulation of
snow overnight (if any) and thus not planning on extending or issuing
another Winter Weather Advisory for this time period.

Sunday daytime should be precip free as the upper low moves across
Mexico and southern Texas. Daytime temperatures should also moderate
and return to the upper 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures on Monday
should rise into the mid 50s area wide.

As we move into the middle part of the coming week we will see a
surge of arctic air drop across the Panhandles. An initial front is
expected on Tuesday and should drop our high temperatures into the
upper 30s and lower 40s. Tuesday night into Wednesday will see the
leading edge of the arctic airmass approach with the possibility of
precip for the Oklahoma and north half of the Texas Panhandle. As of
now have kept potential amounts around 1 inch. Our high temperatures
on Wednesday will be near freezing for the southern Texas Panhandle
while the Oklahoma Panhandle may struggle to reach the 30 degree
mark. Wind chills could also be an issue Wednesday night into
Thursday morning with values dropping into the -5 to -10 degree range
while winds are near 10 mph. Will watch this timeframe closely as a
Wind Chill Advisory may be needed in time.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for the following
     zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hansford...Hartley...Moore...




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