Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 171754
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1154 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING RESULTING IN GRADUAL WIND SHIFT. MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL THREE TERMINALS AT SOME POINT
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT KAMA...TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO
CEILINGS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW QUICK CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
POTENTIALLY REACH IFR CATEGORY AND WHEN/IF VISIBILITY WILL DROP THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG.

AT KDHT...ALSO TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST AT DALHART
DUE TO LOWERING OF CEILINGS TO AT LEAST MVFR THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING.

AT KGUY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. TIMING
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND A PERIOD OF MVFR MAY OCCUR AS SOON AS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEEDED. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING BUT THE MVFR CEILING WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS...MAINLY TO REALIGN/INCREASE POPS
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ADDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO.
LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS A FEW STRIKES JUST NORTH OF TULIA AND THIS
CONVECTION IS MOVING INTO RANDALL...ARMSTRONG AND DONLEY COUNTIES
NOW. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
THROUGH MORNING/MIDDAY.

BRB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. OUR AREA MAY GET GRAZED BY THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO BE BEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. SOME RAIN/SNOW AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH.
THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGHER SURFACE
MOISTURE ACROSS THESE AREAS. NO SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS ANY PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THIS WAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT RAIN FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS
WAVE COULD MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. AGAIN...NO ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED.

WILL LEAVE THE REST OF THE FORECAST DRY. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT CROSS THE REGION...BUT THEY LOOK PRETTY
MOISTURE STARVED AT THIS POINT. THEY WILL BE MOVING THIS WAY MORE
FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO MOST OF THEIR PRECIP SHOULD GET WRUNG OUT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

AFTER A FEW DAYS OF TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL...
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/11




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