Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 300805
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
305 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CWA TODAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A WHILE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
FEW PLACES THAT FALL INTO THE 33 TO 36 DEGREE RANGE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.

A COLDER NIGHT COULD BE IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN...BELIEVE THAT THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...BUT SOME READINGS
MAY GET DOWN INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA SHOULD KEEP
THESE AREAS ABOVE FREEZING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSLATES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY MID DAY SATURDAY. THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES. ONE PIECE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER
PIECE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO ARIZONA BY MID DAY MONDAY. IT IS
THIS SOUTHERN TROUGH THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR ANY CHANCES
OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE GFS
WANTS TO MOVE THIS TROUGH SOUTHEAST AS AN OPEN WAVE AND IT
WANTS TO KEEP IT PROGRESSIVE. IF THIS HAPPENS...THEN OUR
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE LESS WITH MAYBE ONLY THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE SEEING RAIN. THE ECMWF MODEL WANTS TO CLOSE
OFF A LOW OVER ARIZONA AND THEN IT WANTS TO DRIFT THIS LOW SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THE ECMWF
MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE RIGHT...THEN THE PANHANDLES WOULD BE IN FOR A
BETTER CHANCE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WOULD BE FAVORED...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD
BE MUCH GREATER THAN THOSE OFFERED UP BY THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH A COMPROMISE...WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. SO...FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE POP FORECAST.

AFTER THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES BY THE PANHANDLES...A DRYING
TREND WILL COMMENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  40  60  38  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  71  37  55  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              66  37  58  40  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  72  40  59  40  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              71  38  61  40  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  70  40  61  38  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               73  41  60  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 69  37  59  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  70  37  58  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                71  38  62  38  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                71  40  56  36  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   69  39  57  37  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                73  42  59  35  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              76  45  61  36  62 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/15




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