Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 291134

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
634 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017


For the 12Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid TAF period.

Main concern will be the chances for showers/thunderstorms late
this afternoon and early evening. KDHT has the highest confidence
to see these chances so decided to add a PROB30 group for this
period. KAMA and KGUY have a slightly less chance and decided to
leave these chances out for now. Please see subsequent TAFs for
any changes and/or the addition of showers/thunderstorms to the
next period. That being said, conditions should still remain in
VFR unless rainfall brings reduced visibilities to MVFR at the
terminals for a short period.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 440 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017/

Continue to have serious issues with not being able to see
surrounding offices ISC grids. With that said and based on model
data available, an active northwesterly upper flow pattern to
commence today as shortwave troughs approach the Panhandles from
central and southern Rockies. Currently dew points in the 30s and,
with winds expected to be from the southwest this morning, should
remain mainly in the 30s and 40s through this afternoon. However,
winds will back to the southeast by this evening and allow for an
advection of low level moisture into the forecast area as dew
points climb into the 40s and 50s tonight. A frontal boundary
should push into the northeastern portions of the forecast area
later today but then lift back to the north and east by Tuesday as
a warm front. With convection expected to develop across the
higher terrain and mountains of southern Colorado and northern New
Mexico with diurnal heating and upper support from the shortwave
trough, expect convection to propagate east and south across the
northern and western portions of the Panhandles by late today into
this evening. Expect convection to wane by late this evening or
early Tuesday morning but then redevelop again over the higher
terrain and mountains of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico
and spreads south and east across mainly the northwest half or
less of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night as
another shortwave trough over the central and southern Rockies
approaches the Panhandles.

Best chances for convection across the Panhandles appears to be
Wednesday afternoon through Friday as low level moisture increases
ahead of a surface boundary moving into the northwest portions of
the forecast area by Wednesday evening and the latter half of
this week. Main concern will be very heavy rainfall and possible
localized flooding as the ECMWF forecast PWat values of 0.8 inches
(75th percentile for May) between 18Z Tuesday to 18Z Wednesday
increasing to around 1.09 to 1.23 inches (99th percentile to Max
percentile for May) between 00Z Thursday and 06Z Friday. The GFS
PWat values are very similar to the ECMWF from 18Z Tuesday to 18Z
Wednesday, 0.8 to 0.9 inches (75th percentile), and increasing to
between 1.18 and 1.26 inches (99th to Max percentile) between 00Z
Thursday and 06Z Friday. Other than a few strong to possibly
marginally severe storms this week, the severe weather threat
should be low across the Panhandles. A surface low and cold front to
track east and south across the forecast area Friday and then out
of the Panhandles by Saturday. Convection expected to prevail through
the upcoming weekend as an active northwesterly flow pattern



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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