Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 260533
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1133 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND A WEAK FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH MAINTAINS A DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DEAMPLIFIES AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONTINUED DRY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT FLIRTING WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND WITH FUELS RECOVERING FROM
RECENT PRECIPITATION...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT
EXPECTED OR VERY SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ERC VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WILL OPT TO NOT ISSUE A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT AT THIS POINT. WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT APPEARS
POSSIBLE THAT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
ON THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY TO NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH OR POSSIBLY
HIGHER WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES NEAR 15 TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES EACH OF THOSE THREE DAYS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/16





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