Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 272336
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
636 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites throughout the 00Z TAF
period, with the exception of a scattered thunderstorm moving over
the TAF sites to produce sub VFR conditions at times. Current
conditions shows showers and thunderstorms moving east away from all
TAF sites. Some of the latest data does shows some additional
thunderstorms trying to develop past 00Z Sunday for KDHT/KGUY.
Confidence is too low to mention TEMPO group since latest
observations shows little to no precipitation near KDHT/KGUY at this
time. Will make amendments for changing weather conditions as they
develop. Mid to upper bkn/ovc ceilings will continue throughout the
day on Sunday before PROB30 conditions return around 18Z Sunday for
additional thunderstorms straight to the end of the TAF period for
all TAF sites.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                62  84  62  82  62 /  30  30  40  50  60
Beaver OK                  65  88  64  87  63 /  40  40  30  40  60
Boise City OK              59  85  59  81  59 /  40  40  50  50  70
Borger TX                  66  87  66  85  65 /  30  30  40  50  60
Boys Ranch TX              61  87  61  84  60 /  40  40  50  50  70
Canyon TX                  60  85  60  83  60 /  30  30  50  50  70
Clarendon TX               64  86  64  84  64 /  30  30  30  40  60
Dalhart TX                 61  86  62  82  60 /  40  40  60  50  70
Guymon OK                  63  88  63  85  62 /  40  40  40  40  60
Hereford TX                61  85  61  83  61 /  30  30  50  50  70
Lipscomb TX                66  87  66  86  65 /  40  40  30  40  50
Pampa TX                   64  87  64  85  64 /  30  30  40  50  60
Shamrock TX                66  88  66  86  66 /  30  30  30  40  50
Wellington TX              67  88  67  87  66 /  30  30  30  40  50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 229 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level high will be found to our east and an upper level
trough will be found to our west through this forecast. This will
put the panhandles under a south or southwest flow aloft which will
continue to pump subtropical moisture over our area. This
subtropical moisture will combine with a typically unstable late
August atmosphere to bring a daily chance of showers and
thunderstorms. An occasional upper level short wave will help focus
more organized convection at times. Otherwise, the convection will
likely begin on preexisting boundaries and the mountains.

Even more moisture is expected to be brought northward across the
panhandles on Monday into the middle of next week from the remnants
of the upper level low that is over the Gulf Coast of Texas now.
This added moisture will likely only increase the shower and
thunderstorm coverage across our area.

Thunderstorms will drop heavy amounts of rain in localized areas, so
flooding will be possible during this next week. An occasional gust
to over 60 miles an hour or a hailstone larger than a quarter may be
possible as well, but no widespread severe weather outbreak is
expected.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/11



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