Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 231732 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA.

THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED VCTS/TSRA 20Z-02Z, BUT THE
HIGHER CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE KGUY AND KAMA TERMINALS.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT WINDS TO THE NW AT KDHT AND KGUY
AFTER 12Z.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED WEAK ECHOES DETECTED AT THIS TIME OVER SOUTHWEST PART OF
FORECAST AREA COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO AREAS AROUND KAMA THIS
MORNING.  DO NOT EXPECT ANY THREAT TO AVIATION THIS MORNING AS
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 30 KT
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS AS 40
TO 45 KT WINDS SAMPLED BY KAMA VAD WINDS AND BY KAMA UPPER AIR
OBSERVATION CURRENTLY UNDERWAY WILL READILY MIX DOWNWARD AFTER SUNRISE.

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
EAST AND SOUTH OF NORTHERN TERMINALS.  VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON
KAMA...OWING TO LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT.  WILL FORECAST HIGH-BASED CUMULUS AND MONITOR ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENTS.

NO CLOUDS BELOW 8000 FEET EXPECTED AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.  VFR
FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN THE STORY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
EVENTUALLY USHERS IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SANDWICHED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ID
AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
KICKING NORTHEAST ACROSS CO AND EASTERN NM CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAVE
BOTH BEEN ON A STEADY DECLINE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLES BEFORE LIKELY WANING ALTOGETHER. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY EAST OF A
GUYMON TO HEREFORD LINE GIVEN SOME LINGERING MONSOON MOISTURE ARCED
ACROSS THE AREA AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY AS BETTER FORCING
ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SIMILAR TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BRIEF STRONG LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT...BREEZY DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100F
ONCE AGAIN.

IT WILL BE THE SAME OLD STORY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...SUPPORTING AT
LEAST SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH
DAY. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED AGAIN ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
MONSOON TAP LOOKS TO GET REINVIGORATED A BIT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDES THROUGH THE MEAN PAC NW/NORTHERN
ROCKIES TROUGH. THIS MONSOONAL FETCH ALSO LOOKS TO HAVE SOME ENHANCED
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARIE INFUSED INTO IT. THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK TOWARD MID NEXT
WEEK AS THE NORTHWEST UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY EJECTS EASTWARD...SENDING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THIS IS IN
QUESTION...AS THE LATEST ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW THE SYSTEM...NOW
NOT PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY...ROUGHLY 24 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE
EXTENDED PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL WAIT TO
SEE IF THE SLOWING ECMWF SOLUTION CONTINUES BEFORE ADDING ANYTHING
BEYOND THIS. SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE
WHEN THE FRONT AND BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS COME ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK IN WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT TODAY...AS WELL AS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THUS NO
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

BJS/JJ





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