Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 302346 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
646 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, expect MVFR cigs and some BR to develop at both
KGUY and KDHT late tonight into mid morning Friday as limited low
level moisture returns to the area. Whether or not MVFR cigs
develop at KAMA is problematic, so have only incorporated a sct
deck for this fcst cycle. These low cigs and BR are forecast to
erode by late Friday morning, with gusty southeast winds
developing and persisting into late Friday afternoon. The
potential for showers and tstms will increase just beyond this
fcst period.

Andrade

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 401 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Noteworthy items for this discussion include the potential for
thunderstorms tomorrow (more so in the evening) which could result
in a few strong to possibly severe storms. Chances for thunderstorms
actually continue through the weekend; however, at this time the
chance for severe weather Saturday and Sunday looks small. Outside
of this, impacts weather-wise look minimal. Saturday does appear to
have a chance for some areas to be much below normal for this time
of year as a cold front passes through the region and creates a
strong gradient of temperatures across the Panhandles. Unfortunately
this also means there is a high chance for highs to be a bust in
some locations on Saturday for the forecast.

A surface low develops around eastern New Mexico Friday ahead of a
strong closed low that originates in the Pacific northwest. The
advancement of the 500 mb low slows down to almost a halt on Friday,
and its no surprise the surface low doesn`t progress much either. A
warm front drags east from the surface low across the Texas
Panhandle around the I-40 corridor, which will also create a
noticeable north-south gradient of highs on Friday. Since the upper
level support slows, the advancement of the warm front does so as
well. The front essentially stalls out across the Texas Panhandle
and doesn`t move from this area much. Chances for storms to produce
decent rainfall amounts will be possible given the stalled front and
the fact precipitable water amounts will be in the 75% or greater
threshold for areas in the northwest where the greater chances for
rainfall are expected. Forecast sounding show a rich moist
atmosphere. Chances for highest rainfall amounts will be across
western parts of the Oklahoma Panhandle and far northwestern parts
of the Texas Panhandle. MUCAPE is around 1000 J/kg and bulk shear (0-
6 km) is on the order of 60 to 70 knots in the evening. I would
anticipate some of these storms to become strong to marginally
severe across our north. With the stalled front I just don`t see a
high chance for widespread severe weather with upper level dynamics
weakening during the day and night Friday.

Outside of tomorrow, thunderstorms are possible but severe weather
doesn`t look very likely. Saturday would be the better day as
lingering convection sticks around from Friday night. Sunday chances
are mainly for eastern and southeastern parts of the forecast area.

Outside of a few Breezy days, weather looks to have minimal impacts
besides the few days for thunderstorms. It will be interesting to
see how strong the cold front is and how far south the colder air
will advance. While there isn`t any snow in the forecast as of now,
there could be in future forecast packages across northwestern parts
of the coverage area if we can get colder air to advance in from the
north. Mainly between midnight Saturday night and into early Sunday
morning.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$


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