Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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106
FXUS64 KAMA 281136
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
636 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Cycle

An upper high will build back to the east today and Friday allowing
for the upper flow to transition to more northerly and northwesterly
across the Panhandles. A frontal boundary across Kansas today will
begin to move southward by tonight and Friday. Convection is expected
to spread south and east tonight across much of the eastern and
northern Panhandles. Included a PROB30 group for the Guymon TAF site
from about 02Z to 08Z Friday as convection is expected to affect the
Guymon TAF site from Kansas tonight. Left any mention of convection
out of the Dalhart TAF site for now as confidence is low as to
whether the convection will affect the northwest Texas Panhandle.
Otherwise...VFR conditions expected except for the possibility of
MVFR ceilings and strong and erratic winds in and near any
convection. Light mostly southerly or southeasterly winds 5 to 15
knots.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 436 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level analysis reveals 597 dam ridge of high pressure
centered over the desert southwest. Small disturbances coming off
the Rockies are moving over the Central and Southern Plains in
northwesterly flow aloft. A broken line of storms is pushing
southeast and is trying to clip the eastern OK panhandle early
this morning.

A more robust shortwave will move through the northwesterlies
tomorrow. The GFS and NAM show a 50-60KT speed max developing
tomorrow evening as the shortwave strengthens over KS/NE. This
will be the focus area for the initial development of what is
expected to become a MCS and move through the eastern OK/TX
Panhandles by late evening/early Friday morning. Ahead of the
MCS...a lee low will develop in southeastern CO which will help
pull moisture into the area on southeasterly winds. An axis of
60-65 dew points over the OK Panhandle and eastern TX Panhandle
will help fuel any storms that develop. Instability and shear will
also be favorable for severe storms in these areas with MLCAPE
over 1500 J/kg and 40-50kts of effective bulk shear as a 30-40KT
low level jet gets going adjacent to the 500mb speed max. While
large hail can`t be ruled out... expect main threat to be damaging
winds per steep low-mid level lapse rates and modest LI.

Continued northwesterly flow with decent low level moisture and
the possibility of a stationary boundary in the area will result
in another chance for strong thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
evening. The upper level ridge then starts to push back to the
east and amplify some Saturday into Sunday. Storm chances will
begin decreasing and temperatures increasing especially as we get
into the Sunday/Monday period.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/7



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