Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 142123
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
423 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOTED THIS GO AROUND OF THE
FORECAST AS MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO WORK WITH WHAT TO DO WITH
THE REMNANTS OF CAT 4 HURRICANE ODILE. THE OVERALL UPR AIR PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW EARLY THIS WORK WEEK EAST OF A
FOUR CORNERS RIDGE. BY AROUND THURSDAY...THIS FOUR CORNERS UPR RIDGE
WILL BE A PANHANDLES CENTERED UPR RIDGE, BUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
TRANSIENT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND ALLOW SW FLOW ALOFT
TO DEVELOP FOR OUR AREA. IN THIS SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE SOME PARTS
OF THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...MEANING RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM MODEL PROGNOSTICATIONS HERE IN WEST TEXAS. A
FEW STORMS COULD FIRE IN THE OK PANHANDLE OR NRN TX PANHANDLE, BUT
CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW. THIS
SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR A POTENTIAL NEED FOR AN
EVENING UPDATE. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT
BY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...
HAVE RETAINED GOING PRECIP CHANCES AND ORIENTATION FOR
MONDAY...WHICH GIVES THE AREA ABOUT A 20-30 PERCENT SHOT FOR SOME
MORE RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON EXPECTED INSTABILITY FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/NIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A
BIT MORE OVERALL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN SO THE NET DIFF IS PROBABLY
NEGLIGIBLE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THOUGH A FEW ISO SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT. UPR RIDGING MIDWEEK WILL ALLOW H85 TEMPS
TO CLIMB TO NEARLY 24C MEANING WED-FRI SHOULD BE PLEASANTLY WARM.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
FACTORS...BUT INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES AS SEVERAL SIGNS ARE STARTING
TO POINT TO SOME RAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                61  80  60  79  63 /  20  20  30  20  20
BEAVER OK                  64  80  60  83  64 /  10  20  30  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              58  72  56  82  60 /   5  20  20  10  20
BORGER TX                  63  83  62  82  64 /  10  20  30  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              60  81  61  82  63 /  10  20  30  20  20
CANYON TX                  60  81  61  80  62 /  20  20  30  20  20
CLARENDON TX               63  83  63  79  64 /  20  20  30  20  20
DALHART TX                 58  76  58  81  61 /  10  20  20  10  20
GUYMON OK                  61  77  59  83  63 /  10  20  30  20  20
HEREFORD TX                59  80  60  79  61 /  20  20  30  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                64  83  61  82  65 /  10  20  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   63  81  61  79  64 /  20  20  30  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                65  84  63  81  65 /  20  20  30  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              65  86  64  83  66 /  20  20  30  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/09





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.