Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 200406
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1106 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL KEEP IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 15Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN BECOMING IFR TO MVFR
AGAIN AFTER 00Z THURSDAY AS THE CEILINGS FALL AND AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VISIBILITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND A HALF MILE OR
SO AT TIMES TONIGHT...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ISSUE IF NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT AND DEW POINTS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL. BUMPED UP SKY
CONDITION AS WELL TO NEAR 100 PERCENT COVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLY SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE MAY OCCUR BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NECESSARY AT
THIS TIME.

ALL PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE
STORMS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL HAVE THE
CAPABLILITY OF PRODUCING FLOODING RAINFALL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE OUT OF THE PANHANDLES SHORTLY AFTER. LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME IFR TO VLIFR
THROUGH AROUND 15Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
AFTER 16Z WEDNESDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 TO 20
KNOTS AFTER 01Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. COLD FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. WIND SHEAR ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP OUT
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT GIVEN THE DYNAMICS. WILL LET THE FLOOD WATCH
EXPIRE ON TIME AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED WHICH MAY CUT DOWN ON THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WANE SOME WEDNESDAY...
BUT THEN THEY WILL RETURN THURSDAY ON THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
FORECAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AGAIN MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE
PANHANDLES UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE A
DRYLINE TO MOVE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST GIVEN
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/99




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