Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
FXUS64 KAMA 250533
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1233 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016
Possibility of mvfr to IFR conditions early in the 06Z TAF issuance
and frontal timing will cause low confidence forecast. IFR
ceilings/visibilities have developed across the eastern Panhandles
with satellite imagery showing a slight westward spread with time.
Have trended downward at KAMA and KGUY by inserting a MVFR TEMPO
group, but may need to lower further if/when these degraded
conditions reach the terminals. Have also augmented timing of winds
increasing behind the main push of a north to south cold front. A
prefrontal trough/pacific front has already shifted winds at KDHT and
KGUY out of the north but it will be a few more hours before we see
wind gusts increase. These stronger northerly winds should persist
through the better part of the day before diminishing this evening.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 909 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/
Updated for trends, including lowering pops overnight.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 653 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/
For the 00Z TAFs, a strong cold front will track across the terminal
sites late tonight with a brief period of MVFR cigs psbl at both KGUY
and KAMA. Most of the precipitation should remain east and south of
the TAF sites so have opted not to mention for this fcst cycle. Gusty
north to northeast winds will develop behind the cold front, but
should remain below AWW criteria at KAMA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 435 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/
Very few departures from theme of earlier forecast. Have lowered
pops a bit tonight across the western one third of the forecast area,
as this area seems least likely to experience much in the way of
moisture return. Pacific cold front over eastern zones at this time
expected to move slowly westward this evening before being overtaken
by much stronger polar front. This second front will make an early
arrival, sweeping through the Panhandles between 07z and 13z Sunday.
Have allowed for morning thunder with and behind polar front, with a
few afternoon showers possible Sunday afternoon and Sunday night
across far southern sections. Brisk northeast winds and clouds
Sunday will keep highs at or below 70 degrees Fahrenheit most
sections, with the north central part of the area reaching the mid-
70s owing to expected earlier clearing.
Northeast winds continue on Monday, although at much more tolerable
speeds. Cool again with highs in the upper-60s to mid-70s. Two
chilly mornings expected Monday and Tuesday, with lows mostly in the
40s. Modifying airmass yields highs in the mid-70s to lower 80s
Tuesday, with highs mostly in the lower- to mid-80s thereafter.
Dry weather expected Monday through Wednesday night as weak flow
aloft prevails between departing shortwave trof to the east and
cutoff closed 500 mb low over southwestern CONUS. By Thursday,
southwest flow aloft resumes with mid- and lower-level moisture
return commencing. Low pops Thursday through Saturday as flow