Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 180536
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1236 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms look to continue streaming northeasterly across the
northwest Panhandles. KDHT and KGUY will continue some on again,
off again showers and thunderstorms through the overnight hours.
Cigs may become MVFR to perhaps IFR in these areas. KAMA may see
storms, but too low of confidence to put in taf for the small time
frame that it would occur if it does. Expect VFR conditions by
morning.

Beat

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 149 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017/

UPDATE...
See long term section below.

SHORT TERM...

Bottom line up top:
-Severe weather expected
-Main hazards will be large hail(up to 1.75in) and damaging winds (up to 70 mph)
-Additional hazards are for an isolated tornado (see below)
-Greatest area to see severe: along and south of a Dalhart to Perryton line
-Timing of Hazards: 4PM through Midnight
-Storm motions: East at 25 to 35 mph

Details: Hi-res models continue to show the potential for severe
weather this afternoon and into the overnight hours primarily
across the southern and eastern Texas Panhandle. In fact we are
already seeing discrete storms forming along the eastern range of
the New Mexico Rockies. These storms are anticipated to move
across the eastern New Mexico Plains and into the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles around 4 PM to 5 PM this afternoon. Hodographs
show that while there may still be a few discrete storms as
convection moves into the southern portion of the area that they
will merge into a cluster of storms as they continue to progress
eastward. As storms move into the area we will see CAPE in the
1500 to 2500 J/kg range with deep layer shear of 40 kt. This will
be supportive of organized convection of the supercell variety
while discrete. Large hail up to golf balls will be possible with
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph.

Storms which develop north of the above noted area, may be more of
the elevated variety given that those areas have been socked in
with low clouds throughout the day. Despite some portions of the
cloud back dissipating, they will still lag behind the rest of the
area on warming sufficiently to overcome the cap. This won`t
prevent severe storms from moving over them, but it will limit the
northern extent of the isolated tornado risk.

Speaking of the tornado risk. Our risk for an isolated tornado
resides along the edge of our low clouds this morning. IR
satellite imagery showed a low cloud bank roughly from Dumas to
Borger to Lipscomb this morning. These low clouds have greatly
hindered warming throughout the day as evident of the 59 degree
temperature in Dumas as of noon. This will set up a thermal
gradient along where the clouds have been which could provide
enough additional low level lift and low level helicity this
afternoon for a brief spin up. This is especially true of any
storm which has a storm motion parallel to the gradient. The
orientation of the thermal gradient would also provide a
horizontal roll already in place for an updraft to ingest. This
presents our tornado threat. Hi-res models have struggled to
resolve this thermal gradient and persistent northerly winds north
of the boundary.

Storm are expected to move across the Panhandle through the
overnight hours before exiting around 3am. We expect to see the
severe risk diminish after midnight.

Monday through Tuesday...
Mostly dry conditions are expected to
prevail through the first half of the work week; minus an isolated
storm across the eastern zones Monday afternoon. The most notable
weather impact will be the return of near record high
temperatures on Tuesday. Current forecast runs about 5 degrees
below record highs. These warm and windy conditions (sustained 25
to 30 mph) could also bring the risk for elevated fire weather
conditions across the northern zones. This risk could be mitigated
if the northern zones get a fair amount of precip tonight.

LONG TERM...

The upper pattern over the Panhandles will see a transition from
zonal to southwesterly as we move closer to the weekend. This will
bring a return of convection especially Friday and Saturday.
There is some potential for strong to severe storms given the
synoptic pattern, but this could change as we move closer in time.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

16/3


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