Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
959 FXUS64 KAMA 131731 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 951 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Shower and thunderstorms chances persist for the panhandle during the next 7 days. - Below average high temperatures will continue until a warming trend begins later this week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 951 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 The southern plains continues to be under a weather pattern consisting of high pressure both to the east and west of the region with a trough over the region. This pattern will keep gulf moisture across the panhandles for the next couple of days. The panhandles finds itself under a relatively more stable section of the trough with the better dynamics to the south in central TX panhandle. This means that the main driving force for rain showers and thunderstorms will be through general instability and the reaching of convective temperature. The only issue with this is the moisture itself is keeping temperatures on the cooler side with daytime high brushing the convective temperature. This means that there is a low chance for rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again for Monday afternoon and evening. With high moisture still over the panhandles if any of the isolated storms manage to form then they could produce localized heavy rainfall. The temperatures will be below normal for today and Monday with highs mainly in the 80s this afternoon increasing to mainly 80s and low 90s for Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 951 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 The southern plains seems poised to have a slow shift in the weather pattern through the work week. The current pattern would then be supplanted by the eastern high pressure as it builds westward over the southern plains. This puts the panhandles under the western edge of this high pressure which has a low chance of pushing small weather system over the area. Moisture from the Gulf remains over the panhandles under this weather pattern so any of these weather system would cause rain showers and thunderstorms. This would make the later portions of the week more active than the earlier portions of the week. The building of the high pressure would bring a warming in the temperatures that would then be tempered by the increase in the rain showers and thunderstorms. So it seems that later portions of the week will be warmer than the early portions but by a few degrees. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 951 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. There is a low chance for afternoon to overnight rain showers and thunderstorms in the panhandles. The chances of these impacting any terminal are not high enough to reflect in any TAF. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...98