Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 152055
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
355 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALLOWED US
TO WARM INTO THE 60 WHEN WE WERE HOVERING IN THE 30S AND 40S THIS
TIME YESTERDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TOMORROW WHICH
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN IN THE 60S WHILE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SURGE INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT STILL HOLDS THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIP AS ALL LIQUID. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING AN END TO OUR PRECIP CHANCES.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS A LEE-SIDE
TROUGH DEVELOPS AGAIN. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LIFT
ALOFT ON FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EASTER MORNING TO HELP PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PANHANDLES WILL BE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES
EASTER NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD END OUR RAIN CHANCES. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY...BUT THE
MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE STRENGTH OR THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL 8 PM
TONIGHT BEFORE 20-FT WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 15 MPH. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHILE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14




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