Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 271714 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1114 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER TRICKY...LOW CONFIDENCE 18Z TAF CYCLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS
ALREADY MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS HOWEVER IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
PERSISTING AT KDHT AND KGUY. KAMA HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SEE VISIBILITY
IMPROVEMENTS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS
TAF ISSUANCE. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
WHILE MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE NEXT ROUND OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START LATER THIS EVENING FOR KDHT AND KGUY BEFORE
SPREADING TO KAMA AROUND 7Z. ONCE THIS NEXT ROUND BEGINS WE EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DEGRADE QUICKLY BACK TO IFR AND EVEN LIFR AS HEAVIER
SNOW MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...
CANCELED WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY AS VALUES ARE ABOVE THRESHOLDS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS ON TRACK. WE ARE SEEING THE BULK OF
THE ACCUMULATIONS CURRENTLY AND CONTINUE TO EXPECTED LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPDATES TEXT PRODUCTS ALREADY
SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS SHAPING UP MUCH AS PLANNED...WITH VERY FEW CHANGES
NEEDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR DEEP UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES.  ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS...AS EVIDENCED BY VEERING WINDS SAMPLED BY KAMA VAD
WIND PROFILE DATA.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO AT THIS TIME WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY
THIS MORNING.  CONFIGURATION OF WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS HAS BEEN
LEFT UNCHANGED...WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
IN WESTERN SECTIONS...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW FOR ALL
SECTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY.

UPSLOPE FLOW DIMINISHES TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT COULD BRING ANOTHER QUICK INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.  LOW SNOW POPS CONTINUE SATURDAY IN
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME.  WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR SLEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.  FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS...WITH GFS CALLING
FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN.  OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A
RESPECTABLE WARMUP ON TUESDAY AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT.  LOW SNOW POPS RETAINED FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE HEAVIER SNOW THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. MVFR
CIGS THEN LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SOME FLURRIES MAY
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO IFR LEVELS AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/02





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