Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 230431
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1131 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO
TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND 10Z SATURDAY OR SO...AND SHOULD THEN WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE. SOME WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE
STORMS COMPLETELY DISSIPATE WITH 35 TO 45 KNOTS IN AND NEAR THE
STRONGER STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AFTER 18Z TO 20Z SATURDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 15Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN AFTER 01Z TO 02Z SUNDAY TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE AFTER ABOUT 01Z TO 02Z SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
MAY MOVE OUT OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. CONVECTION LATER
TONIGHT MAY AFFECT THE DALHART AND POSSIBLY THE AMARILLO TAF SITES
AFTER 05Z TO 07Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 02Z SATURDAY TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER 15Z TO 16Z SATURDAY TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

WASH, RINSE, REPEAT...THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. HOT
CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK AS SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS. A STRONGER SHRTWV TO OUR WEST
MAY MEAN A BIT MORE OF PROLONGED CHANCE FOR STORMS TONIGHT BEYOND
OUR USUAL AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDOW, BUT NOTHING TOO STRONG OR SEVERE
IS EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY AFFECT THE PANHANDLES NEXT WEDNESDAY-ISH
TIME FRAME...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY AN EVENTUAL
END TO THE DIURNAL CONVECTION BY LATE NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN ISOLATED
STRONG AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE SEEN NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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