Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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280
FXUS64 KAMA 271613
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1113 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 18Z
Wednesday. Winds will be light and mainly from the west and
southwest...5 to 10 knots or less.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 553 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/

AVIATION...
West to southwest winds will prevail at speed under 10 knots. Skies
will be VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 314 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Not much derivation from the previous discussion. A quiet near term
forecast is in store across the Panhandles with limited moisture in
the region. Latest 27/00Z model and probabilistic data suggest some
type of back door cold front late Wednesday into early Thursday
morning which should drop temperatures temporarily for a day or two before
rebounding by the end of the week into the weekend.

As we go into the weekend and into early next week, the model data
shows great uncertainty. Deamplification of the upper level ridge
over the central CONUS will bring a weak westerly to southwesterly
flow over the Panhandles. Although confidence is low at this time,
some showers and thunderstorms may work into western regions as some
Pacific flow tries to be reestablished across the Four Corners
region. However, the model data as in previous runs continues to
shows highest chances of POPS across our eastern zones. With no
sufficient moisture advection near the surface or mid levels, trend
is to continue to diminish POPS. Weak vorticity advection from the
west approaching the compressed ridge axis may help to produce an
isolated thunderstorm. Domain coverage is not consistent with the
latest models but any chances of any isolated thunderstorm would
occur in the far eastern Panhandles. Going into early next week,
tranquil weather conditions will return to the region as a southern
stream jet moves north of our region providing unfavorable upper
level dynamics for vertical ascent. High temperatures will be at or
slightly above average as we go into early next week.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/7



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