Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 300929
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
429 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENUF TO THE FCST AREA TO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...AND REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE MIGRATING EWD AGAIN TOWARDS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
UPCOMING FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THRU THE
WEEKEND AND WERE ACCEPTED. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TEMPORARILY PARKS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...THE FCST AREA WILL
BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
STEERING STORMS INTO TX AND OK PNHDLS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN
CO AND NERN NM. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY
MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED AFTERNOON THRU THURSDAY MORNING.
AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE SCENARIO...SLGT CHC POPS WED AFTERNOON FOR
NRN ZONES ARE WARRANTED...SPREADING SWD TO ENCOMPASS THE FCST AREA
WED NIGHT. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS ARE JUSTIFIED FOR THURSDAY THRU
FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE FAVORABLE NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE WARMING UP AGAIN
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY
SLIDE EWD AGAIN THIS WEEKEND...SO HAVE RETAINED A DRY FCST DURG THIS
TIME FRAME. NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS THEN DIVERGE FOR NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 00Z GFS MOVES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF
RETROGRADES IT AGAIN TOWARDS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLACES OUR
FCST AREA UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THESE DISCREPANCIES...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS A CONSERVATIVE COMPROMISE WITH TEMPERATURES AND POPS
FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY PENDING BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND
ASSOCIATED FCSTR CONFIDENCE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                94  70  96  68  88 /   0   0  10  20  20
BEAVER OK                  99  72  99  69  90 /   0   0  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              96  67  96  65  88 /   0   0  20  20  30
BORGER TX                  97  74  99  71  91 /   0   0  10  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              95  68  97  67  89 /   0   0  10  30  20
CANYON TX                  94  69  95  67  89 /   0   0  10  20  20
CLARENDON TX               96  72  97  70  91 /   0   0   5  20  20
DALHART TX                 96  67  98  66  89 /   0   0  20  30  30
GUYMON OK                  99  71  99  68  91 /   0   0  20  20  30
HEREFORD TX                94  67  95  67  89 /   0   0   5  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                97  72  98  70  91 /   0   0  20  30  20
PAMPA TX                   95  71  96  69  90 /   0   0  10  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                97  72  97  71  92 /   0   0   5  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              98  73  98  72  93 /   0   0   5  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.