Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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415
FXUS64 KAMA 101110 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
510 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY PREVAILS.  WEST SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE AT KAMA...AND AT LESSER
SPEEDS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.  WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING
...SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO NORTH.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY LATE TODAY
WITH A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PANHANDLES WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTER A BRIEF RETURN TO SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY WITH A LEE SURFACE LOW
AND TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SATURDAY.
DRY AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES PREVAILS TODAY THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD BY THIS WEEKEND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES. THE RIDGE FORECAST TO BREAK
DOWN AND THEN MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS
BACK OVER THE WESTERN STATES AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
LOTS OF CONCERNS ABOUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
LOOKING AT THE ECMWF...850 MB THERMAL RIDGE FORECAST BY 00Z THURSDAY
ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES BUT FAVORING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF FORECASTING THE STRONGEST 700 MB WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE GFS FORECASTING
THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE IN ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION BY 00Z
THURSDAY...OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
AND WESTERN SECTIONS. THE GFS ALSO KEEPS THE STRONGEST 700 MB WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS OVER OKLAHOMA AND AROUND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 70S TODAY...WITH THE
FORECAST MAX TEMP AT AMARILLO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON.

SEEING AN INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS/COUPLE OF
WEEKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ERC VALUES HAVE INCREASED AS OF
TUESDAY TO 52 AT CEDAR RAWS...51 AT BOOTLEG RAWS AND 47 AT THE
WHEELER RAWS. 1-HOUR FMC/S HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 3 TO 4 PERCENT.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE 20 FOOT WINDS NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH 20 MPH. THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE THE LIGHTEST 20
FOOT WIND SPEEDS...WITH MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH EXPECTED.

NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ALSO NEXT TUESDAY...AS EITHER THE 20
FOOT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TOO
HIGH. NEXT MONDAY COULD POSSIBLY SEE A RETURN TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS...AS 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 15 MPH AND MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALL TO NEAR 20 PERCENT OR 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                74  33  67  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  75  29  61  30  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              77  31  66  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  76  36  65  36  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              76  31  68  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  75  32  68  32  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               77  36  65  33  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 77  28  67  29  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  78  30  66  30  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                75  32  68  31  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                78  30  60  31  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   75  33  61  34  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                78  36  63  32  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              78  37  63  34  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...
     WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/11



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