Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 171755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The 18-hour forecast consists of NE-to-E gale-force winds, and
sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, in the the waters
that are to the north of Colombia, from 11N to 12N between 74W
and 76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product under
WMO/AWIPS headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W, crossing
the Equator along 25W, to 03S35W. Convective precipitation:
warming cloud top temperatures and weakening precipitation from
02N to 06N between 18W and 26W, and from 07N southward between 40W
and 46W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through NE Florida, into the east
central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, into the south central
sections, and weakening/dissipating into the SW corner of the
area.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A surface
ridge extends from a 1032 mb North Carolina high pressure center,
across Florida, beyond NW Cuba, into central Honduras.

Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the
eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the
Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Hebbronville, in Bay City, and at Ellington Field
in Houston. LOUISIANA: MVFR in SW and south central coastal
plains. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in Natchez. from ALABAMA to FLORIDA: VFR.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS FROM 50W WESTWARD...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NW CORNER AND THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow moves from the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, across Cuba and the Bahamas, into the central Atlantic
Ocean. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 30N northward between 50W and the East Coast of the U.S.A.
A cold front passes through 32N55W to 21N69W. The front becomes
stationary from 21N69W, just to the north of Hispaniola, across
the northern part of Haiti, to the western part of Jamaica, to the
NE coastal sections of Nicaragua. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 29N northward
between 50W and 58W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere to the NW
of the line that passes through 32N48W to 24N60W 18N70W 15N75W
09N80W, from the Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean Sea.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.
An upper level ridge extends from Colombia to 05N93W in the
eastern Pacific Ocean. An area of solid upper level SW wind flow
is to the west of the line that runs from the Mona Passage to
Panama along 80W.

24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 17/1200 UTC,
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 1.14 in Montego Bay in
Jamaica, and 0.20 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the island. NE wind flow
from 600 mb to 800 mb also is moving across the area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: VFR. Santiago: nearby rainshowers. MVFR. ceiling 1900 feet.
Puerto Plata: earlier rain has ended for the moment. VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow in
general will move across the area, with the current ridge. It is
possible that some W wind flow may be present during the second
half of day one. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that the
anticyclonic wind flow will move across the island during the
first half of day one, becoming SW and W for the rest of day one.
Expect W and NW wind flow for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for
700 mb shows that NE wind flow cover the area, with a Bahamas-to-
Cuba ridge, for day one. Day two will consist of an inverted
trough that will move to the western end of the island. A second
inverted trough will end up across the Mona Passage at the end of
day two. Expect broad anticyclonic wind flow across the area.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 56W/57W, from 10N to 20N. It is moving
toward the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea. Convective
precipitation: scattered to broken low level clouds and possible
rainshowers are from 10N to 20N between 52W in the Atlantic Ocean
and 64W in the Caribbean Sea.

Deep layer cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area
from 08N northward from 52W eastward. A trough passes through the
Madeira Archipelago to a cyclonic circulation center that is near
18N39W, to 09N52W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible in the areas of cyclonic wind flow. overcast high level
clouds cover the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 25N between 25W and
40W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
between Africa and the 32N55W-to-21N69W cold front, and away from
the 56W/57W surface trough. Surface anticyclonic wind flow also is
to the west of the cold front. A 1032 mb high pressure center is
in the southeastern corner of North Carolina.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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