Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 131652

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1252 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

Hurricane Ophelia is centered near 31.8N 32.9W at 13/1500 UTC or
about 475 nm SW of the Azores moving E-NE at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 29N-34N between 29W-35W. See the latest Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

A tropical wave extends from 07N24W to 16N27W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 24W-
31W while remaining embedded within the ITCZ. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07N-11N between 25W-30W.

A tropical wave extends from 10N57W to 20N54W moving W at 15-20
kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 49W-61W and
a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near
16N. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-20N between 48W-

A tropical wave extends from 05N79W to 13N82W moving W at 5 kt.
This wave coincides with very subtle 700 mb troughing and 850 mb
relative vorticity over western Colombia and Panama on the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored N of
Hispaniola near 23N71W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 08N-14N between 77W-85W.

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
11N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
11N19W to 09N26W to 09N36W to 06N48W to 08N54W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves...scattered
moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 35W-50W.


A stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle to the
mouth of the Mississippi River and continues to dissipate. The
western extent of the front is analyzed as a surface trough
extending from near Brownsville Texas S-SE into the SW Gulf waters
near 19N94W. The boundary is providing focus for widely scattered
showers and isolated tstms remaining S of 27N W of a line from
27N95W to 19N92W. Farther upper level low is centered
over the SW North Atlc near 26N75W with troughing extending SW
over portions of the SW Gulf waters. A surface trough also extends
from the NW Bahamas across South Florida to western Cuba and
continues to support widely scattered showers and isolated tstms S
of 25N E of 90W. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under
the influence of mostly fair skies and moderate to occasional
fresh E-NE winds E of 90W and gentle to moderate E-NE winds W of
90W. The surface trough across the western Gulf is expected to
continue weakening through Saturday night while the surface
troughing across the Florida Straits drifts westward to the
south-central Gulf by early Sunday.

An upper level trough extends across the Bahamas and western Cuba
supporting an overall area of lower pressure across the NW
Caribbean this afternoon. This area falls beneath the influence of
southerly flow aloft on the western periphery of an upper level
ridge anchored over Hispaniola near 19N70W. Upper level divergence
along with surface moisture convergence is lending to a few
isolated showers and tstms across the Gulf of Honduras offshore of
Belize...and widely scattered showers and tstms across the SW
Caribbean S of 15N between 77W-85W. This southern activity is
largely driven by the close proximity of the monsoon trough axis
and a tropical wave along 81W. Farther east...mostly clear skies
and fair conditions prevail with moderate to occasional fresh
trades expected through Saturday E of 80W.

Weak southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the island this
afternoon between an upper level trough centered over the Bahamas
and an upper level anticyclone centered near 19N70W. Cloudiness
will increase throughout the afternoon with isolated showers and
tstms possible during the late afternoon and evening hours due to
peak daytime heating and atmospheric instability.

Hurricane Ophelia is detailed above. An upper level low is
centered near 27N74W NE of the Bahamas and extends troughing NE
to 31N70W and SW to over western Cuba. The troughing supports a
surface trough analyzed from 30N69W SW across the NW Bahamas and
South Florida to the coast of western Cuba near 23N82W. Scattered
showers and tstms are occurring from 29N-32N between 64W-72W...and
S of 30N W of 72W. In the N of this area...a weak
1017 mb low is centered off the coast of the Carolinas near 34N73W
with the associated cold front extending W-SW to the Georgia coast
near 31N81W. Isolated showers are occurring within 60 nm either
side of the front W of 74W. Farther east...a weaker surface
trough is noted from 21N60W to 26N59W to 29N55W and supports
widely scattered showers from 26N-30N between 54W-60W. The
remainder of the central and eastern Atlc outside of the
influence of Hurricane under the influence of
surface ridging anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 28N49W
and a 1021 mb high centered near 33N22W.

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