Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 162324
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N16W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 05N16W AND CONTINUES TO 07N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 17W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AT 30N84W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N90W TO JUST
S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 25N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE FRONT. 15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 5-
10 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
SOUTH FLORIDA TO N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 19N60W TO S OF
HISPANIOLA AT 17N75W. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES FROM 17N75W TO
JAMAICA AT 18N78W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 10N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 72W-77W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE.
15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NW OF THE
SHEARLINE. 5-15 KT EASTERLIES ARE SE OF THE SHEARLINE. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SLIGHT RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW
TO W FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER
THE FRONT AND SHEARLINE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO WEAKEN WITH THE SHEARLINE PERSISTING
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS S
OF THE ISLAND WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS
OVER HAITI. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST ESPECIALLY S OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

FAIR WEATHER IS OVER NW ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS. AS OF 2100 UTC...A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT
30N44W TO 24N50W TO NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 19N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N BETWEEN
40W-46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
FRONT. A LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR
40N24W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-70W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-45W ENHANCING
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FRONT TO PERSIST WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BE THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 30N74W
TO S FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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