Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 170523
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W TO 06N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 02N35W TO 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-09N BETWEEN 12W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED IN THE EPAC REGION EXTENDS
ITS AXIS NE ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
NOTICED ACROSS FLORIDA STRAITS REGION AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF. AT
THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE GULF SUPPORTING A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN AND FAIR WEATHER. A
PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS WERE NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE FIRST ONE IS W OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 22N90W TO 19N91W. ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS FEATURE. THE SECOND TROUGH EXTEND ACROSS
THE COAST OF W FLORIDA FROM 27N82W TO 26N82W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY E
OF 83W. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 27N AND W OF 91W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FOG OVER THE NW GULF TO DISSIPATE IN THE
MORNING HOURS. A 1001 MB SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
TEXAS WILL MOVE E EXTENDING ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF
STATES ENHANCING CONVECTION THAT COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE US AND PUSH S
REACHING THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTICED ACROSS FLORIDA STRAITS
REGION AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND ITS ADJACENT WATERS W OF 78W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW WHICH
CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC INTO THE REGION.
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS
MOVING QUICKLY W ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 16N BETWEEN 70W-78W WHERE
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE ISLANDS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AFFECTING THEIR ADJACENT WATERS. WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WILL PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE EVERY
NIGHT AND WEAKEN DURING THE DAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING TO GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT DEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH COVERS THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W CENTERED
AT ABOUT 350 NM E OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND EXTENDING ITS
AXIS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N47W AND EXTENDS TO 24N56W. FROM
THIS POINT THE FRONT BECOMES WEAK AND STATIONARY EXTENDING TO
23N68W. ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W-49W.
A BROAD 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
WITH FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO DRIFT S. THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION AND
WEAKENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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