Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 132352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
652 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
04N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N17W to
03N31W to the South American coast near 01S45W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails within 100 nm on either side of the
ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal system extends across the northern portion of the basin
analyzed as a cold front from 28N83W to 28N91W then becomes
stationary from that point to 29N96W. No significant convection
is related to these boundaries. Scatterometer data depicts gentle
to moderate northerly winds north of the cold front while light to
gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere except over the Bay of
Campeche south of 23N west of 91W where moderate easterly winds
are depicted. Over the next 24 hours, the cold front will reach
the east-central Gulf while weakening. The stationary front will
transition to a warm front and lift north of the northwestern Gulf
coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient across the Caribbean is weakening as the high
pressure north of the region dissipates. This is resulting in a
relaxing of the trade winds to gentle to moderate across the
majority of the Caribbean, except over the south central Caribbean
where moderate to fresh winds prevail. Isolated showers are
observed over Hispaniola with a weakening frontal boundary
that extends across the island from the north. Little change is
expected over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are over the island due to a dissipating stationary
front. Expect the showers to decrease in coverage over the next
24 hours once the front dissipates.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N68W to 28N80W.
Isolated showers prevail along the front mainly north of 27N. To
the east, a 1018 mb weakening surface high is centered 25N66W. A
weakening stationary front extends from a 1010 mb surface low near
29N40W to 20N68W. A surface ridge prevails across the eastern
Atlantic anchored by a stationary 1016 mb high centered near
21N32W. Over the next 24 hours, the surface high over the western
Atlantic will dissipate while the cold front will continue moving
east over the region.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA




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