Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 152111
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
311 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Moisture associated with a weak upper low over central Colorado, stuck
under a broad upper ridge across the intermountain west,
continues to allow scattered thunderstorms to form, mainly south
of I76. This activity is will be trending to the south as more dry
and stable air lies to the north. The upper low will slowly shift
east over Lincoln County overnight, keeping a chance of showers
and storms continuing over there. Main hazards will continue to be
lightning and heavy rain, with storms continuing to be able to
produce 0.75" in half an hour or less. Some storms may produce
outflow winds up to 45 mph with small hail as well. Have warmed
low temperatures tonight over this area as well with cloud cover
in mind.

The upper low will continue moving east Sunday, with warmer
midlevel temperatures moving in from the west. Easterly surface
winds will keep most of the area stable, with the midlevel cap
shown nicely on forecast soundings. Overall however, high temperatures
will be slightly warmer. There should be a little more activity
over the mountains compared to today with some moisture moving in
on northwesterly flow aloft. Most of the plains will remain dry
except the far eastern plains still under the influence of the
upper low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

The sluggish upper low over eastern Colorado will ever so slowly
move into southwest Nebraska by Monday evening so still some
showers over the far northeast corner. Further west, the
overnight Monday period looks fairly dry as airmass becomes more
drier and subsident.

The upcoming week still characterized by the broad high pressure
aloft stretching over the region. However, there are some hints
that the ridge center may begin to shift further east in the
central plains states. This will result in a more weak southwest
flow aloft over Colorado and a bit more influx of subtropical
moisture into Colorado. Appears the flow will favor mountains and
western Colorado with the best chances of afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms while the plains will see only be
isolated in areal coverage. Mayhap by Thursday and Friday a bit
better chance over lower elevations. Temperatures this week will
warm again into the 90s through mid week then a bit of cooling for
Thursday and Friday with more cloud cover. Main impacts with
storms this week will be heavy rain and potential local flooding
from slow moving storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

VFR conditions expected through tonight. Thunderstorms should
remain south and southeast of the area airports for the rest of
the afternoon and evening. However there is a slight chance that
outflow moving west from the current storms may briefly spin up a
weak and short lived storm. Ceilings should remain above ILS
levels at KDEN. Easterly winds should be eventually returning to
diurnal drainage pattern overnight with light speeds, then
returning to easterly Sunday afternoon.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Kriederman



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