Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 170302
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
902 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Northwesterly winds have diminished slightly over the plains this
evening. There is a cold frontal pushed noted by surface
observations and the new GOES-16 clean window 10.3 micron data
pushing southwest through eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska
Panhandle. However, best pressure rises are already moving to the
east into eastern Nebraska per MSAS pressure rises, so expect
this frontal surge to basically wash out overnight as it attempts
to push into the state. Overall, this will have little impact on
our mild weather, although with a more easterly component should
see high temps cut back a few degrees on Friday. Going forecast on
track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 157 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

A dry west/northwesterly flow aloft will be over the region
through Thursday. Spatial cross-sections show some mid an upper
level moisture passing overhead, but no pcpn expected. A weak cool
front will pass move into the area Friday morning. Temperatures
will be a cooler but still well above normal. Overall the wind
will be light with some improvement in the relative humidities in
the afternoon which will alleviate the fire weather concerns for
one day at least. Reference the fire weather discussion below.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 157 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Upper level ridge will be over the Central Rockies Saturday. It
will then shift east of the region Sunday leaving southwest flow
aloft behind it. This will produce a warm and dry weekend. Highs
are expected to reach to upper 70s to lower 80s. A surface low
will develop over the Central Plains Sunday and bring gusty west
winds. The fire danger will be elevated, especially on Sunday when
winds increase.

A cold front will drop south across the area Sunday night. The
cooler air behind the front combined with an easterly winds should
result in cooler highs for Monday with readings mainly in the 60s
across northeast Colorado. There will be enough moisture embedded in
the flow aloft for a chance of showers, mainly over northern parts
of the area.

It will be dry and warm Tuesday as ridging reforms over the Central
Rockies. This ridge shifts off to the east Wednesday as an upper
level trough move onto the California coast. Moisture will increase
ahead of the trough starting Wednesday, so will have a
chance/slight chance for precipitation in the forecast. The upper
level trough moves inland and is expected to affect the area
Thursday. It should be warm enough for rain across the lower
elevations. This will be the strongest system to affect the area
in the past few weeks. However it still could track north of the
area and leave the area on the dry side of the storm.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

VFR conditions will persist through Friday. West/northwest winds
around 10-15 knots are gradually weakening this evening. Hard to
say exactly whether they will switch to normal drainage
south/southwest winds or whether east/southeast anticyclonic wind
develop through early Friday morning. Later Friday, would expect
more easterly flow around 10 knots to develop.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Winds have decreased enough with a slow improvement in humidities
to allow Red Flag Warning to expire earlier this evening. Lighter
winds and a little higher humidities on track for Friday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
FIRE WEATHER...Barjenbruch



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