Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 170200
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
800 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM MDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Quiet evening with just a few showers and storms over the northern
part of the area and over Lincoln county. As the airmass continues
to stabilize, the chance for convection will decrease. Current
forecast on track. Winds are decreasing over the higher terrain
and will let the Red Flag Warning expire at 9pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Drier and warmer airmass has been mixing down across the mountains
and high valleys this afternoon with wind gusts in the 20-35 mph
range. Some moisture hanging on across lower elevations especially
over far Northern Colorado in proximity of the jet streak over
Wyoming. Appears a few high based storms will continue to develop
from Grand county northward to the Wyoming border but end result
will be gusty outflow winds. Stronger storms will be confined to
far Northeast Colorado with deeper moisture and higher dewpoints
remaining in the 50s. A convergence zone across Elbert and Lincoln
counties trying to develop a storm in Northern Lincoln county but
lower levels of the atmosphere are drying rapidly as mixing
occurs. This activity may get stronger as it gets into deeper
moisture over Washington county.

For Sunday a weak surge will move into Northeast Colorado in the
morning which will create some weak and shallow upslope with some
slight cooling and more moisture for the afternoon. This will
result in slight increase in thunderstorms chances along East
slopes of the mountains and plains. Still a potential for a severe
storm on the far plains with deeper moisture...ample shear and
higher cape values.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Little change in forecast thinking in the long term as still
expecting an increase in thunderstorm coverage for much of the
upcoming week and slightly cooler temperatures. High pressure
aloft will build over Oklahoma and steering flow around the high
will result in moisture increasing into Colorado from the South
and Southwest. PW values will increase to over an inch by late
Monday over the Front range. The high retrogrades back West into
New Mexico towards Friday so perhaps decreasing showers late in
the week. Still enough moisture will remain under the dome of high
pressure for at least isolated-scattered coverage of storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 800 PM MDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Northeast to east winds will turn southerly by 06z. A weak cold
front will move through and cause winds to turn northerly around
09z. VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday with high clouds
over the area. There will be a slight chance for thunderstorms in
the Denver area after 21z Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 PM MDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Warmer and drier airmass has moved into the mountains this
afternoon as rh levels have dropped to 5-15 mph range. Winds have
also been increasing in the 20-35 mph range. Could still be a few
high based gusty outflow showers from Northern Grand County to
the Wyoming border with slightly higher moisture values. Will let
Red Flag warning county through 9 pm this evening. Still low RH
levels for Sunday but winds should not be as strong so no Red Flag
warnings anticipated for Sunday afternoon.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ211>214-217-
218.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Meier
SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Meier
FIRE WEATHER...Entrekin


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