Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 161133 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
417 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

...CORRECTION FOR A FEW MISSING WORDS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BOTTOM OF A POSITIVE TILT UPPER
TROUGH SWINGING DOWN FROM WYOMING CONTINUES TO STREAM LOW/MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS NEWRD OVER THE SOUTHERN ONE-THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS HOUR. STREAKY CLOUDS EVIDENT ON IR AND H2O SAT IMAGERY. LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW FLURRIES STILL BEING REPORTED AT A FEW MTN SITES IN SUMMIT
AND PARK COUNTIES AS WELL AS NEAR THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS FROM
BOULDER SOUTHWARD. ANY NEW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE CLEARING WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE FLOW ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO VEER
TO A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AS THE TROUGH PASSES BY. THIS
CLEARING AND NLY WND PROFILE WILL SPREAD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. CLEARING DOES NOT LAST LONG AS
MODELS SHOW A BAND OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE TIED TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RACING SEWRD ACRS SERN WYOMING/NERN COLORADO
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE LIGHT
OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN QPF/SNOWFALL IN THE NRN MTNS DURING THIS
PERIOD. AMOUNTS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE...PERHAPS AN INCH AT BEST ON
HIGHER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...SO WILL WIND
SPEEDS...PARTICULARLY ON MTN RIDGES...EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE
AND ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 35-50
MPH RANGE IN THE MTNS/FTHLS AND 20-30 MPH ON THE NERN PLAINS. WIND
SPEEDS ARE FCST TO SLACK OFF ON THE PLAINS THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
JUST AS GUSTY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NWLY WITH
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SLOW WARMING
TREND...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES OVER
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CARVED OUT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT FOR
COLORADO IS A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHICH GRADUALLY EASES
BY MID WEEK. GRADUALLY...THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS THE
RIDGING FLATTENS AND PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...MONDAY WILL HAVE A VERY STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WIND
DIRECTION A BIT TOO NORTH FOR HIGH WINDS BUT CERTAINLY SOME GUSTS
IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR SOME LINGERING CLOUDS. THE PLAINS
WILL BE DRY BUT CONTINUED COLD UNDER SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS.

EXPECT STRONGER WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW BACKS A BIT MORE
WESTERLY AND INCREASING MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY DEVELOPS. GUSTS UP
TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. CERTAINLY THIS WILL
BEAR WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL HIGH WINDS ALONG WITH INCREASED
SURFACE GRADIENT. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS AS
WELL AS SOME OF THIS WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DOWNSLOPE ONTO THE
PLAINS.

AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS BY LATE WEEK...EXPECT INCREASING PACIFIC
MOISTURE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME
DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BUT OVERALL MOISTURE APPEARS A BIT
LIMITED. BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS DURING THE
LATE WEEK AS THE GFS HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED WAVE WHILE GFS REMAINS
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO LONG TERM
PERIODS BUT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

EXCEPT FOR LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES UP AGAINST
THE FOOTHILLS SUCH AS IN THE VICINITY OF KBJC THRU 13Z THIS
MORNING...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.
HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER AIR WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO RACE
ACRS NENR COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT NO PRECIP.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN
FROM WYOMING. LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY TURN
WESTERLY AT 6-10KTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...THEN W-NWLY AT
10-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. BY NIGHTFALL...WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO A
S-SWLY COMPONENT AT SPEEDS UNDER 8KTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...BAKER



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