Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 170321
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
921 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

BEST SNOW IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF I-70 AND PARK
COUNTY. THERE ARE SOME RETURNS ON THE RADAR OVER THE PLAINS...BUT
VERY LITTLE SEEMS TO BE HITTING THE GROUND. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. MOISTURE AND
WEAK ASCENT BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN...THOUGH BEST ASCENT OVER
SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SOME SHOWERS ONGOING SOUTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE...BEGINNING TO CREEP NORTHWARD. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
WITH CAPES AROUND 100 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PARK COUNTY. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS...BECOMING A BIT MORE EASTERLY. TROUGH STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT. MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA. THOUGH THE MAIN BATCH OF MID LEVEL ASCENT
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
ASCENT OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE THE BULK OF THE QPF SOUTH OF
THE CWA. BUT LOW LEVEL EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP WITH LOCAL
UPSLOPE ACROSS SOUTH PARK AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. LATEST RAP SHOWS
LIGHT QPF IN THIS AREA AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
LOWER POPS FURTHER NORTH WITH WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT. SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWEST. DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SPREADS INTO AREA. THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION TO
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD COME TO AN END TOWARDS MORNING.
MAY BE A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS LINCOLN
COUNTY. ON THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND WILL SPREAD
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOW SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM AND GFS
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. AIRMASS LOOKS
FAIRLY SUBSIDENT...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS PROGS SHOW HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE A WEAK...SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A WARM UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM TEMPERATURES NAMMAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE MAIN MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE STATE...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTAIN SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
BOTH DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE STATE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAS
A FAIR CHANCE OF EXTENDING WELL OUT ONTO THE PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WILL THEN BE WARMER AND DRIER AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH AND THEN DEVELOPMENT OF THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE EASTERLIES AT DIA HAVE DECREASED AND ARE TRYING TO GO TO
SOUTHEASTERLIES. STILL BELIEVE THEY`LL BE DRAINAGE BEFORE
SUNRISE. DOUBT IF CEILINGS WILL GET BELOW 5000 AGL BEFORE THEY GO
AWAY. WILL LEAVE VCSH IN UNTIL AROUND 09Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RJK



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