Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 222212
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
412 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 412 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Convection over the mountains has had limited strength this
afternoon as expected. We have had a few stronger pulses over and
just east of the foothills...though these storms appear to be
transitioning to outflow driven storms and then decaying quickly.
Lots of cloud cover developing upstream so it will be another
mostly cloudy and warm night with the weak convection gradually
fading. We could set a record high minimum temperature for today
as it only got down to 70 this morning and the record for today is
69...and 70 for tomorrow. Saturday looks slightly drier again,
though the result may not be that different. Biggest change will
be the wind shift over the plains bringing drier low level air
into the northeast corner, making this area more likely to be
capped entirely. Bumped temperatures up a degree or two and
adjusted the thunderstorm timing a little.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 412 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

An elongated upper level ridge of high pressure stretching across
the southern United States will dominate weather across the Rocky
Mountain Region over the next several days. Some subtropical
moisture trapped beneath the ridge...combined with daytime
heating...will produce isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms each day. PW`s are expected to remain
around an inch through early next week...therefore a few of the
storms could produce locally heavy rainfall. The best chance for
heavy rain appears to be on Sunday due to an easterly low level
flow and slow storm movement. Soundings on Monday show capes above
1000j/k with some shear....which if this verifies could lead to a
few stronger storms from the Front Range Urban Corridor and Palmer
Divide eastward across the plains. A few strong storms will also
be possible across the far northeastern plains on Tuesday as the
tail end of an upper level disturbance brushes the forecast area.
By the middle of next week...the upper ridge shifts northwest over
the Intermountain West...with a dry west to northwest flow setting
up over Colorado. This pattern pushes the subtropical moisture
south into New Mexico. This should lead to drier weather across
much of north central and northeastern Colorado on Wednesday.
Models show upper level disturbances in the northwest flow aloft
and associated weak cool fronts moving across the region late in
the work week. This could result in slightly cooler temperatures
and slightly better precipitation chances...especially across the
far northeastern plains. Temperatures should remain at above
normal values through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 412 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

VFR through Saturday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms around
the Denver area through about 03z with a chance of variable wind
gusts to 30 knots. The odds of this appear to be diminishing.
Threat of thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon looks lower.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Kalina
AVIATION...Gimmestad


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