Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KBOU 242037
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
237 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015

THINGS WORKING OUT PRETTY MUCH AS PLANNED THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
NOT MADE ANY HUGE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF QG DYNAMICS TO HELP OR HINDER THINGS TONIGHT OR TOMORROW BUT
MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE
CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. MUCH OF THE NWP OUTPUT...INCLUDING THE CIRA
SYNTHETIC SATELLITE DATA...ARE TOYING AROUND WITH SOME STRATUS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE
INCREASED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE
SHOULD BUMP UP THE THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER DUE THE LOWER
CLOUD IN THE MORNING AS WELL AS MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW AS A
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN STATES WHILE A
BUILDING HIGH WILL PUSH NORTH OVER THE WESTERN STATES.

THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING PUSHING SOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY INCLUDE
SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTHEAST. NAM SYNTHETIC SATELLITE HINTING AT A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WYOMING OVERNIGHT OVER
THE COLORADO EASTERN PLAINS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCES...MAY NEED TO TRACK THINGS LATER TO GO UP TO LIKELYS.
BOTH NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS THEIR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
STRATUS OR FOG PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...LIKELY
ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND ANY SORT OF OUTFLOW
FROM CONVECTION. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY KEEP GOING ALL NIGHT.

FRIDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AS IT PUSHES IN ON THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP UPSLOPE FLOW GOING
TO PUSH MOISTURE UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOOK FOR
MOST SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN THERE WILL MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL
EARLY SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION EACH DAY AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS BEING HINTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AREA WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE THE USUAL ISSUES...
ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE SQUIRRELLY WINDS...BUT THIS SHOULD
SETTLE DOWN AS THE SUN SETS WITH DRAINAGE WINDS KICKING IN BY LATE
EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PLAINS BY AROUND 12Z WITH THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS
PROBABLY ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK. THIS LOW CLOUD SHOULD
BURN OFF DURING THE LATE MORNING LEADING TO A BIT MORE CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2015

SOME OF THE STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINS THIS EVENING WITH A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOWMELT ISSUES CONTINUE TO DECLINE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ET
HYDROLOGY...ET



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.