Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 200354
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
954 PM MDT MON SEP 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM MDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Some of the upper level moisture from the tropical system over
the southwestern Unites States is getting into the western CWA.
South and southeasterlies winds are in place over the plains and
foothills. Will make a few minor changes to the sky cover. No
pops.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Sep 19 2016

A flattened upper ridge over New Mexico is producing west-
southwesterly flow over Colorado with unseasonably warm and dry
weather under mostly clear skies. Warm advection and weak
enhancement in drainage winds tonight will allow for much warmer
than normal lows tonight.

High clouds will begin to stream overhead from the southwest Tuesday
morning as moisture from TS Paine off the Baja coast gets caught
into the zonal flow aloft. This will keep temperatures over the
mountains and over the southern urban corridor similar or cooler
than today`s readings, where the northeastern plains will be
warmer. The deeper moisture will still be in southwestern
Colorado, so at this time, do not forsee any showers or
thunderstorms in our area through the afternoon. Winds will be
light overall.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon Sep 19 2016

An upper level ridge over Texas will bring SW flow over the state.
An shortwave embedded in the flow will move over CO Tuesday into
early Wednesday. Moisture will increase in the mid and upper
levels but will be dry in the lower levels making precipitation
chances low over the plains. Kept a slight chance for the
mountains through Wednesday morning before cloud cover starts to
break up by the early afternoon. Temperatures overnight into
Wednesday will be mild due to the extensive cloud cover. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 80s.

A back door cold front will move into NE plains wednesday night
into Thursday helping to lower temperatures into the mid 70s. The
upper surface low will be over Nevada which will bring SW flow
aloft across the state. By Thursday evening there may be enough
moisture and instability to have showers and thunderstorms over
the mountains but SSE flow on the plains will help to keep
conditions dry. Friday the low will clip NW corner of CO as it
progresses North through the weekend. On Friday will keep a slight
chance of precip over the mountains but strong southerly flow will
keep conditions on the plains warm and dry. This could result in
heightened fire danger concerns for Friday afternoon with little
precipitation over the last week.

Over the weekend the upper low will continue to move North into
Canada with a separate branch of energy staying south over the
desert SW. Models are hinting that this could become cut-off by
Monday. Overall the extended will be dry with cooler temperatures
through the weekend into the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 938 PM MDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Models have the winds at DIA going to south-southwesterly, normal
drainage direction, by 06z. There will be no ceiling issues, but
there will likely be plenty of upper level cloudiness much of
Tuesday.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...RJK


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