Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 180915
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
315 AM MDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 248 AM MDT Wed May 18 2016

A weak upper level low over AZ will move into NM by tonight.  Over
nrn CO the flow aloft will be weak however there still will be quite
a bit of lingering moisture across the area.  Aftn capes across the
higher terrain and in and nr the foothills will range fm 500-700
j/kg so expect a chance of showers and storms across the higher
terrain with only wdly sct activity along the front range.  Highs
this aftn will be warmer across the plains with readings in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

For tonight will continue to see a chc of showers and a few storms
early in the evening across the higher terrain but most activity
should end before midnight.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 AM MDT Wed May 18 2016

Models have very weak northerly flow aloft for the CWA on
Thursday. By late day, continuing well into Friday night...models
have and upper ridge over the forecast area. The flow aloft at 12Z
Saturday morning is weak and southwesterly. The QG Omega fields
show benign synoptic scale energy for the CWA through Friday
night. The boundary layer flow is mainly southeasterly during the
days with normal south-southwesterly drainage at night time. For
moisture, there is some around, certainly some late day/evening
convective cloudiness. Precipitable water values are progged in
the 0.30 to 0.60 inch range Thursday and Thursday night...then the
0.35 to 0.90 inch range Friday and Friday night. There is some
CAPE over the CWA late day Thursday, with the higher values over
the high county. The CAPE is more widespread with higher values
late day Friday. Lapse rates are fairly steep over the mountains
late day Thursday, but no so over the eastern plains. Friday`s
late day lapse rates are pretty steep for all the CWA. Dew point
readings are mainly in the 30s F mountains and 40s F plains
Thursday and Thursday night. Same on Friday, but there are some
50s F readings over the far eastern plains. For pops...will go
with 40%s in the mountains, down to 10%s over the far east both
late day periods for convective showers and thunderstorms. For
temperatures, Thursday`s highs look to be 3-5 C warmer than
today`s highs. Friday`s highs are 2-4 C warmer than Thursday`s.
For the later days, Saturday through Tuesday, models have
southwesterly flow aloft for the CWA on Saturday and Sunday with a
strong upper trough/closed low over the west coast and Great
basin. By Sunday night...one piece of the trough moves across
Colorado. On Monday and Tuesday...west-southwesterly flow aloft
is in place...with another upper trough over the West Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 248 AM MDT Wed May 18 2016

There is a wk denver cyclone to the nw of dia with lifr ceilings
and some fog to the nw of the low. At this time winds should stay
sly at dia so this should keep the lower ceilings/fog nw of dia
unless cyclone shifts eastward.

By midday winds should have a more ely component. A few showers
and storms will dvlp by mid aftn however most of this activity
should stay to the west and south of the airport. By 23z outflow
winds fm convection may shift the winds to a more ssw direction.
For tonight winds should stay mainly ssw overnight.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK



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