Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 220312
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
912 PM MDT THU APR 21 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM MDT THU APR 21 2016

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES
MODELS AS WELL AS SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DENVER
CYCLONE FORMATION TOMORROW MORNING JUST NORTH OF DENVER. NAM
SHOWING A BRANCH OF INCREASED MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS THAT WILL
AID IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG CONDITIONS ARE NOT SUPPORTED BY
OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS SO HAVE KEPT IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT THU APR 21 2016

UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NEAR ROCKY MOUNTAIN
NATIONAL PARK AS WELL AS KENOSHA PASS. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. LIGHT RAIN...GUSTY WINDS TO 25 MPH AND
CLOUD- TO- GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE STORMS. THESE
SHOULD BE GONE IN ABOUT AN HOUR WITH THE LOSS OF DIRECT SUNLIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM MDT THU APR 21 2016

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE PLAINS. AIRMASS
STILL DRY AND PRETTY STABLE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY CREEP IN FROM
THE WEST, AND SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH CAPES OF 300 J/KG OR LESS, WILL HOLD ON TO LOW
POPS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NO
CHANCE OF RAIN ON THE PLAINS. FORECAST TEMPS ARE NEAR GUIDANCE AND
LOOK GOOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM MDT THU APR 21 2016

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK QG ASCENT WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION
DURING THE DAY WITH STRONG MID LEVEL QG DESCENT DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST PCPN COVERAGE WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS OVER THE PLAINS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...THE NAM12 SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A
FAIRLY GOOD MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPING. THIS WAVE REMAINS IN PLACE
UNTIL AROUND 18Z SUNDAY...THEN WEAKENS. WILL KEEP SOME GUSTS IN
50-60 MPH RANGE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IN AND THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS.
ON SUNDAY...COOLER WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVER THE REGION. SOME SOME MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS SO
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS COLORADO. THE COOLING
TREND CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...DRIER WITH THE TROUGH KICKING OFF TO THE EAST
AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 859 PM MDT THU APR 21 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT WITH A SSW DOMINATING
TOMORROW. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE FORMATION OF A WEAK
DENVER CYCLONE TOMORROW BY 12Z THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BOWEN



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