Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 231755
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1055 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015

RADAR AND SATELLITE PICTURE SHOW SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA RIGHT NOW...MORE SO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS...BUT ITS PRETTY LIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE ALSO A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HERE AND THERE OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THE
ENTIRE CWA HAS A SNOW FIELD IN PLACE RIGHT NOW...WHICH ISN`T VERY
COMMON...EVEN FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH APRIL FOR NORTHEAST/
NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO. THE LATEST QPF FIELDS DUE CONTINUE TO SHOW
LIMITED MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF
THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CURRENT GFE GRIDS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD ORDER...WILL MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES ONLY TO SEVERAL OF THE
PARAMETERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015

WK SWLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT NNW BY LATE AFTN
AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY THIS MORNING MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER
PORTIONS OF NERN CO THRU 15Z. IN THE MTNS BEST CHC OF SNOW WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHICH MAY LINGER THRU THE AFTN HOURS AS
ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE DUE TO FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES. AS
FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS MAINLY IN THE 20-25 RANGE ACROSS NERN
CO.

FOR TONIGHT ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE MTNS SHOULD END THIS EVENING
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015

AN ACTIVE AND VERY WINTRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE MOST QUIET AND WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT SNOW COVER AND LACK OF DOWNSLOPE WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF WARMING. WE SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS APPROACH 40F OVER
SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE PLAINS...WITH MID/UPPER 40S OVER THE
FAR NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW OCCURRED
WITH THIS LAST STORM.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANGE. WE SHOULD SEE OROGRAPHIC SNOW
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT FAST MOVING
SHORT WAVE. BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
SPILL ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEEMS MODELS ARE A
BIT FASTER WITH THIS COLD FRONT SO SHOULD SEE FALLING TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WITH REGARD TO SNOW POTENTIAL...WE DO EXPECT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND NEARBY PLAINS
INCLUDING THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ACT TO
FOCUS PRECIPITATION. UPSLOPE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO 700 MB OR
MORE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEARLY
NEUTRAL THROUGH A DEEP LAYER DURING THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS. Q-G FIELDS ALSO SUPPORT DEEP BUT MODEST LIFT DURING
THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING POPS NEAR
THE FRONT RANGE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL ALSO SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW...BUT LACK
OF STRONGER UPSLOPE FORCING WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL THERE.

BY THURSDAY...SOME MODELS ARE POINTING AT ANOTHER BUT WEAKER SHORT
WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
IN THE FORECAST...WHILE COLDER AIR ALSO REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
EAST OF THE ROCKIES. HAVE KEPT A COLD FORECAST IN PLACE WITH TEMPS
LIKELY STRUGGLING TO REACH 20F ON THE PLAINS PER LATEST GRIDDED
TEMP OUTPUT.

AT THIS TIME...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE MAINLY IN
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...HARD TO ELIMINATE SNOW CHANCES
WITH SOME MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLE
FASTER ARRIVAL OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MODERATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT REMAIN A GOOD 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EVEN INTO SATURDAY.

FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SNOW CHANCES WOULD INCREASE AGAIN
AS LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SHOW ANOTHER BUT
DEEPER TROUGH HEADED INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.  WILL GO WITH ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY POPS FOR THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
MODEL SOLUTION OF TROUGHINESS/FRONTAL PASSAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015

THE STRATUS FIELD IS A BIT PESKY RIGHT NOW...BUT IT SHOULD GO
AWAY WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS.  WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIRLY LOOKING NORMAL DRAINAGE FLOW BY 02/03Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RJK



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