Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 242108
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
308 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

SOME CUMULUS CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
BUT OVERALL CAPE IS QUITE LIMITED TO JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES
AND LOW LEVELS ARE DRY. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AT THE MOST...AND ANY OF THOSE WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGH COUNTRY. AIRMASS ON THE PLAINS TOO CAPPED FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ALTHOUGH A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN/NEAR THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
NORTHWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. MOST MODELS
SHOW JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE OF MOISTURE ON THE SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
PROGS TO INCH SLOWLY NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WOULD BRING
A LITTLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALSO A THREAT TO THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE
PLAINS...INCLUDING THE PALMER DIVIDE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE AREA. AT
THIS TIME STILL EXPECT ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE
IMMEDIATE DENVER AND BOULDER AREAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
PREVENT ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM
ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES WITH FURTHER WARMING ALOFT AND STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING AND LEE TROUGHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

A LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. AT LOWER LEVELS...A LEE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL INDUCE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHICH COULD BRING
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE AIR QUALITY SITUATION. AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO FORECAST TO CONTAIN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. AS THE MID-LEVELS MOISTEN...THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL THEN BE A PATTERN OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...SHOWERS COULD
EXTEND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND URBAN CORRIDOR. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAY ALSO CONTAIN A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...OWING TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT UNDER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ANTICYCLONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. LESS SMOKE/HAZE
WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MIXING...BUT ILS APPROACHES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AT KDEN DUE TO LIMITED SLANT VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE ALOFT.
FAIRLY NORMAL AND WEAK DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS WILL PERSIST AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



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