Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 191459
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
859 AM MDT MON SEP 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Increased today`s forecasted max temperatures with 700 mb
temperatures increasing 3 degrees C over yesterday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2016

A ridge of high pressure centered over New Mexico and Texas will
continue to allow for dry and unseasonably warm temperatures over
Colorado. The westerly flow aloft will not be as strong this
afternoon so overall the winds this afternoon will not be as
strong as yesterday. Temperatures this afternoon will be close to
90 at Denver which is still well below the record high of 96 for
the date...but still well above normal. The strongest winds this
afternoon may be over the northeast plains where gusts in the
20-25 mph range will be possible late this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Southwest flow aloft will prevail around an upper level ridge
centered over Texas Tuesday. Moisture will start to increase late
Tuesday as a short wave trough nears Colorado. This wave will
bring moist air and the upper levels of the atmosphere, however
the lower levels will remain dry and make it difficult for
precipitation. Will go with low pops Tuesday afternoon and night,
mainly over the mountains. The cloudy skies will likely make for a
mild night Tuesday. The clouds will exit the area Wednesday. This
will allow highs to reach the 80s again. A weak cold front will
enter northeast Colorado during the afternoon hours which could
lead to fall temperatures late in the afternoon over the northeast
corner.

On Thursday, a closed low will be over Nevada. This will result
in a southwest flow aloft across Colorado. At the surface,
southerly winds are expected over eastern Colorado as low
pressure deepens over the Great Basin. May be enough moisture and
instability for a few weak showers and storms over the mountains.

The surface low is expected to move over northeast Colorado
Thursday night and Friday. Meanwhile the upper level low will move
into Idaho Friday. There will be a chance for precipitation,
mainly for the mountains and northern areas. South to southwest
flow is expected to bring dry air for most of the lower elevations
Friday.

For the weekend, the upper level low will move across the
Northern Plains and into Canada. Some sort of northwest to
northerly flow is expected over the region. A short wave trough
may strengthen into a closed low over the Southern Rockies. Even
though the overall pattern is uncertain, temperatures should be
below normal. Dry conditions are expected as the best moisture
should stay to the south and east of the state.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2016

VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. west/southwesterly winds
this morning will weaken and become more variable by 15z...then
should see east/sely winds this aftn...going back to drainage this
evening.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 204 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Unseasonably warm and dry weather will continue this afternoon.
The wind at the surface and aloft will be weaker this afternoon.
Low relative humidities again in the afternoon in the 10-15
percent range will keep the fire danger elevated but no highlights
at this time due less wind in the aftn period.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Cooper
FIRE WEATHER...Cooper



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