Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 241600
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1000 AM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

CURRENT FORECAST HAS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASED CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. LOOKS
LIKE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE WEST AND SOUTH NEAR THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND EAST TO KANSAS.

WITH DISTURBANCE OVER NE COLORADO COMBINED WITH DECENT THETA E
CONVECTION AND QG ASCENT COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED STORMS OVER THE
NE PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE OVER THE NEXT MODEL RUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

AN UPPER LVL STORM SYSTEM OVER MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS BY TONIGHT.  THIS WILL LEAVE NRN CO WITH WSW MID LVL FLOW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL JET RESIDES OVER THE AREA.  THE AIRMASS THRU THE AFTN
HOURSWILLL BE DRIER AND LESS UNSTABLE SO IT APPEARS TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE RATHER ISOLD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER
NERN CO IT APPEARS THE PLAINS WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY SOME ISOLD
LATE AFTN CONVECTION FM DENVER SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. AS FOR
HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OS SEASONAL
NORMALS.

FOR TONIGHT A WK FNT WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO THIS EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRES RESIDES OVER SERN CO.  GRIDDED FIELDS INCREASING SELY LOW LVL
FLOW THU EVENING WITH THETA-E ADVECTION INTO NERN CO ALONG THE
FNT. MEANWHILE A WK DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS NRN CO TONIGHT
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHC OF TSTMS OVER THE PLAINS WHICH MAY
CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS PAST MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL LEAVE
IN CHC POPS FM PREVIOUS FCST OVER THE PLAINS. WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILE IN PLACE COULD SEE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO WITH MARGINAL
LARGE HAIL AND STG WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS GETTING SLOWER. THE GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE TIMING OF THE NAM/ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
SIMILAR IN TRACK. THESE MODELS BRING THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS MAY CARRYOVER
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WL KEEP CHC POPS GOING
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POPS COULD BE HIGHER BUT THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH IS SUSPECT STILL SO DO NOT WANT COMMIT TO
MORE THAN CHC POPS. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO
COLORADO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BLO
NORMALS. HAVE OPTED TO LOWER THE HIGHS A BY A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE ACTUAL HIGHS HAVE BEEN RUNNING COOLER
THAN FORECAST. A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST SHOULD HELP BRING
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 940 AM MDT SUN AUG 24 2014

CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 00Z UNTIL 03Z WITH THE
MAIN IMPACTS BEING WINDS AND LOWERED CEILINGS. WINDS SHOULD RETURN
TO DRAINAGE AROUND 6 Z AFTER STORM PASSAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BOWEN



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