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000
FXUS65 KGJT 050441
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
941 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

RATHER FAST MOVING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO OUR CWA
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOME OF THE HIGHER VALLEYS...WITH
RAINFALL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ACCURATELY
INDICATED DURING THE MORNING RUN THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...5-10
INCHES...WOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NW SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND THE WEST
ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ABOVE THE 8500
FOOT LEVEL. THEREFORE...INCLUDED THOSE ZONES ABOVE THE 8500 FOOT
LEVEL IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH WAS POSTED SHORTLY
BEFORE NOON TODAY...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS ARE PANNING OUT WELL
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA.
EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN LOCALLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS THAN PRESENTLY INDICATED.

BACK EDGE OF MOISTURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH THIS EVENING...SPREADING INTO WESTERN COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND IN MANY LOCATIONS TO NEAR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHED
TODAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES OVER THE THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE IS BREAKING DOWN AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING WESTERLY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER
FAR NORTHEASTERN UT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE UINTA MTNS.

THE TROF DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE ECMWF CLOSES THE TROF OFF OVER
SOUTHWESTERN CO WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE TROF OPEN UNTIL IT REACHES
THE PLAINS. THE TROF AXIS BEGINS TO EXIT THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
IS EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT
IN THE DETAILS OF TIMING...PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH. THAT BEING SAID
BOTH MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION OVER ALL THE WESTERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEASTERN UT MOUNTAINS AT ONE TIME DURING THE
STORM. CURRENT MODELS HAVE FRIDAY MORNING FAVORING THE NORTH
EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY BUT BECOMING MORE BROKEN IN
COVERAGE.

ANOTHER FAIRLY QUICK POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY. BY MED DAY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ON TUESDAY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IS REFOCUSING EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING MOVING THROUGH EASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER ASE...MTJ AND TEX WITH
FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST IMPROVEMENT AT THESE SITES BY 09Z. WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THE DRY AIR ALOFT INTERACTS WITH NEW PRECIPITATION
ON THE GROUND. CONFIDENCE LOW ATTM ON FOG FORMATION BUT WILL BE
WATCHING METAR...WEB CAMS AND SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH SUNRISE.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS MAY LINGER OVER THE DIVIDE PEAKS THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREVAILING IN THE UPCOMING TAF ISSUANCE AFTER 09Z OVER ALL THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 8500 FEET
     FOR COZ012-018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 8000 FEET
     FOR COZ004-013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 8000 FEET
     FOR COZ010.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...TGJT