Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 201713

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1113 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Issued at 1107 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Minor updates to the grids this morning to adjust temperatures a
bit and clean up morning freeze highlights. Potential for another
night of near freezing conditions tonight. We will be taking a
look at that in more details as the new models continue to roll


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 500 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Few weather concerns over the next 36 hours as a shallow ridge of
high pressure builds over the area. Clouds will be scarce in the
dry airmass below the ridge which will help temperatures recover
to within a few degrees of normal today with highs climbing above
normal Friday afternoon. However, strong radiational cooling
tonight will cause lows to dip close to freezing again in the
lower valleys. Additional Freeze Warnings may be called for across
the Grand Valley, Grand Flat and lower elevations of southeast
Utah. However, this will depend in part on whether a widespread
freeze occurs in the aforementioned areas this morning. Therefore,
will defer the decision to hoist additional highlights to the day

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 500 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

High pressure will continue to amplify going into the weekend, so
benign weather will persist. As has been the trend thus far this
month, temperatures will rebound to above seasonal - about 5
degrees to start and peaking to around 10 degrees above normal by

Beginning late Sunday and into Monday, a Pacific storm system will
amplify off the coast of Washington. This will turn the upper level
flow over our forecast area to the southwest. Moisture will increase
as a result, leading to the infiltration of mid- and high-level

As the Pacific low moves inland on Monday, more moisture will be
picked up in the southwesterly flow. As a result, scattered
showers will develop for our area Monday afternoon and Tuesday.
The chance for showers will continue through midweek as the
passage of a shortwave will bring a cold front through the region.
This will see the return of breezy conditions and cooler


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

A few high clouds will drift south across the area this afternoon
with high pressure building over the Great Basin. Expect VFR
weather at all terminal sites with winds generally terrain driven.
Little change expected through midday Friday.




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