Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 051646
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
946 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP A DRY AND COOL NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION. MORNING TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN CHALLENGING FALLING WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATUS CLOUDS LINGERED OVER PORTIONS OF NW COLORADO OVERNIGHT
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE WEDNESDAY AND THAT
MUCH AGAIN BY FRIDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

THE BENIGN DRY WEATHER WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN A FIXTURE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE CLOSED LOW OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL FILL AND LIFT EAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER AZ AND
NM. IT WILL PHASE WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPPING NORTHERN
AND EASTERN CO. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY...WHILE THE ECMWF GIVES THE SHORTWAVE MORE AMPLITUDE
AND SLOWER MOVEMENT FROM NW TO SE. HAVE KEPT MORE CLOUD COVER NEAR
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH LESS THE 15 PERCENT PCPN CHANCES. A
SECOND SIMILAR SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE STRONG WEST COAST HIGH SHOWS THE FIRST SIGNS OF CRACKING
WEDNESDAY AND STRONGER TROUGH TRAVELING ALONG THE U.S. AND
CANADIAN BORDER SQUASH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 942 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUD MAINLY OVER THE NORTH...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. THEREFORE VFR IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...EH


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