Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 272051
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
251 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS TWO CLOSED LOWS
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN IS ALREADY INITIATING SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS MORE ORGANIZED ENERGY ENTERS THE
REGION. ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE 9000+ FT DURING
THE ONSET OF THIS EVENT BUT IS ON TRACK TO DROP TO AROUND 7000
FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE 9000 FEET...THEREFORE WINTER STORM WATCHES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE
CONVECTIVE THROUGHOUT THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...SO BOTH SNOW LEVEL AND
INTENSITY WILL FLUCTUATE. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE HIGHEST
ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO...BUT CONVECTIVE
INDICES AND LAPSE RATES ARE BEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS SO
ANTICIPATING MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH
STEADIER PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN UTAH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS FRIDAY
MORNING. THE STRUCTURE WILL WEAKEN OVER WESTERN COLORADO ON
FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING
DOWN TO A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST MODELS INDICATE A DECENT BREAK IN
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

A SECOND CLOSED LOW IS ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ONE...AND WILL
DIVE TO NEAR VEGAS SATURDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM WILL INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...INDICATIONS ARE THAT MORE STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INCREASE
NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
STRUCTURE OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL FALL APART AS IT NEARS THE FOUR
CORNERS. SLIGHT INDICATIONS OF A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF ON
SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS NEXT SYSTEM AS RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY BECOMES GREATER. GENERAL AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TROUGHY PATTERN THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING ACTS UPON
THE MOIST AIR MASS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING FROM THE WEST TOWARDS MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MTNS MAY BE OBSCD IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY THU
MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
     FOR COZ009-012-017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
     FOR COZ004-010-013.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
     FOR UTZ023-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...EH



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