Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 292241
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
341 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
THICKEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DUE TO THE ONCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING FED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THANKS TO AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REACHES SOCAL
FRIDAY MORNING...PIECES OF ENERGY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND PUSHING INTO NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY. IN LOOKING AT H5 VORTICITY MAXIMA AND H5 QC VERTICAL
VELOCITY...INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND PROGRESSING EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE COMPLETE
ATMOSPHERIC SATURATION ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY MORNING
AND THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS BY MID MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS AND
MODEL SKEW TS ARE NOT INDICATING A WARM TONGUE OF AIR ABOVE THE
SFC...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. WITH
H7 TEMPS AROUND -3 C TO -4 C DURING THIS EVENT...EXPECTING THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE TO BE RIGHT AROUND 7000FT...PLUS OR MINUS 500FT
DEPENDING ON WHAT TIME OF DAY THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING.
THE HEAVIEST 5+ INCH AMOUNTS WILL ACCUMULATE ABOVE 8000FT WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS DOWN TO 6500 FT. THIS FORECASTED RAIN/SNOW LINE
FLIRTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS INCLUDING PAGOSA SPRINGS AT ~7100FT AND DURANGO AT
~6500FT. DO EXPECT SNOW AT THESE LOCATIONS BUT ANTICIPATING A
SLUSHY MIX LESS THAN 3 INCHES...BUT THESE SHOULD BE HIGHLY
MONITORED IF COOLER AIR CHANGES THINGS. ELSEWHERE...FEELING
CONFIDENT FOR THE ADVISORIES IN THE SAN JUANS AND ABAJOS/LA SALS
ABOVE 8000FT WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER BUT STILL CONFIDENCE OVER THE
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THE LATTER PART OF THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
FROM ABOUT THE TAVAPUTS AND FLAT TOPS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER POSITIONED OVER THE WRN AZ BORDER. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT SNOW LEVELS REMAIN A BIT TRICKY DUE TO
NEUTRAL OR WEAK WARM ADVECTION STILL INTO THE 4 CORNERS SATURDAY
MORNING. MAY SEE SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AND SWRN CO VALLEYS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. THE
UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE NW CORNER OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO NE UT/NW CO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD TO THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NO
STRONG INFLUX OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE UPPER RIDGE RE-FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY. PACIFIC
MOISTURE TOPPING THE RIDGE WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NRN CO MTNS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 954 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE ABAJO AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW CENTERED OFF OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. RAIN AND SNOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY TO IMPACT KDRO AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY OBSCURED IN SNOW DURING THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS
APPEAR TO SETTLE OUT NEAR 7500 TO 8000 FEET...SO EXPECT SHOWERS
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT KDRO RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
MVFR VSBY AND CIGS AFTER DARK. THERE IS ALSO CHANCE FOR BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KTEX IN SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. TAF SITES
NORTH OF KTEX FACE LITTLE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR COZ017>019.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
     FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...NL



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