423
FXUS65 KGJT 092337
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
537 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light showers are possible this evening through tomorrow
  afternoon. They may be capable of producing strong wind gusts.

- Dry, hot, and windy conditions are expected tomorrow causing
  critical fire weather in the afternoon.

- Temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above normal through mid
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

We are watching a weak shortwave trough progressing eastward over
the northern Great Basin. This trough will start to advect moisture
into our region out of the southwest later today and overnight.
Meanwhile is still some moisture in the area and it may be enough
for isolated showers over the Uinta/southern mountains this
afternoon. During late afternoon and into the evening we will see
scattered showers move in from central Utah as midlevel moisture
increases. Scattered showers and storms are possible within this
plume of moisture advection through the late morning. Given the dry
and warm low levels not much rainfall is expected from these
showers, and they may be capable of producing strong outflow winds
upwards of 40-50 mph. By tomorrow morning the shortwave works across
the northern tier of the area and drags a weak front in from the
north. Any lingering moisture interacting with this front and or the
terrain may result in showers and storms again in the afternoon. The
wave will increase the pressure gradient aloft and deep mixing will
promote gusty winds at the surface. Also, fronts like this tend to
enhance the wind gusts just ahead of them. This along with RH in the
single digits and teens will cause critical fire weather conditions
in the afternoon mainly along and south of I-70. Like yesterday any
showers or storms that do form in the afternoon look to produce
limited rainfall, but perhaps gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

A broad Canadian trough dips southwards into the Upper Plains on
Friday. This feature paired with the westward propagation of
the persistent Desert Southwest high turns upper-level flow
northwesterly. The pressure gradient looks to loosen up during
this transition, but some localized strong winds are still
expected and could stoke another day of localized critical fire
weather conditions. Precipitation potential stays mostly
confined to east of the Divide on Friday, but as has been the
case for much of the week, terrain-driven afternoon showers will
remain a possibility. PoP`s are at around 15-30% for high
elevation locations with up to 45% chances on the far eastern
border of our CWA. Things moisten up some throughout the
weekend, though PWAT`s should stay below normal. Should we see
any notable showers or thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday,
they`ll likely develop over the San Juans where the NBM has
consistently shown a 40-60% probability of wetting rain. As of
now, Sunday looks to be the more promising day of the two.

High pressure extends back eastwards towards the Rockies early in
the work week while another broad trough develops to our north.
Ensembles are hinting that next week could receive a moderate boost
in moisture, partially coming from the Pacific through the trough
and partially from the Gulf through the shifting high pressure
pattern. The exact details on this setup will vary depending on the
exact location of low and high pressure centers across the CONUS,
but trends are indicating a heightened chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the region through portions of next week.
Otherwise, valley high temperatures will stay 5-10 degrees above
normal throughout the long-term period, though higher elevations may
drop to near-normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 532 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

A weak low pressure system passes through the region tonight
into Thursday morning with the best chance for showers and an
isolated storm or two along and north of I-70. Gusty winds will
be the main threat as this system passes overhead, but a brief
reduction in ceilings and visibility cannot be ruled out under
stronger showers. After a brief lull mid-morning, storm chances
pick back up along the high terrain tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Scattered showers this evening and overnight have the potential
to produce strong outflow winds. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph with
RH in the teens and single digits are expected tomorrow along
and south of I-70. Winds decrease on Friday through the weekend
although temperatures stay above normal. The chance of wetting
rain in the coming days is low. Lightning starts will be a
concern with the warm and dry conditions given there is a chance
for showers and storms each afternoon into next week.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ203-205-
     207-290>294.
UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ487-490-
     491.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT