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000
FXUS65 KGJT 080705
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1205 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST. ANY
EASTERLY COMPONENT PRODUCES A DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR THIS SIDE OF THE
DIVIDE...WHICH IS COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE FOR SNOW. AND AT THIS
TIME...WEB CAMS AND SURFACE OBS SHOW LITTLE ACTIVITY. WHILE SOME
AREAS OF SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING...LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 818 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS OBSERVATIONS AND CDOT WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW
FALLING ESPECIALLY OVER VAIL PASS. HRRR AND RAP13 CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT PRECIP FOR THE MTNS AND EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BEST MOISTURE AND ENHANCEMENT STAYING FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS SO EXTENSION OF ADVISORIES LOOKS A SAFE BET.
DID DROP WARNING FOR GRAND MESA WITH LITTLE...IF ANY...SNOW
ONGOING THERE. REST OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 549 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHICH IS JUST
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO HAVE ENDED SO WILL ALLOW THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.

SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT IT TO START
DYING OFF AS THE SUN SETS. REMAINING WARNING AND ADVISORIES CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CHUGS ACROSS WESTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AIDED BY CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SNOW
ACROSS THE WRN CO MTNS FROM RABBIT EARS AND VAIL PASSES TO THE SAN
JUAN MTNS. SNOW TO WATER RATIO HAS BEEN CLOSE TO 10:1 FOR VERY WET
SNOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED ACROSS ERN UT
AND NWRN CO. ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL...HAVE ALSO BE NOTED FROM THE UINTA BASIN TO
SOUTHWEST CO.

WHILE THE DYNAMIC LIFT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND CONVECTION DIES
DOWN AFTER SUNSET...NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE FAVORING NORTH FACING SLOPES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL KEEP THE VARIOUS WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT
IN PLACE... EXPIRING AT VARIOUS TIMES THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MTNS AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST SAN JUANS.
NORTHERLY FLOW COULD FAVOR LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW IN THE UNCOMPAHGRE
GORGE SOUTH OF OURAY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE STEAMBOAT VALLEY AND SOME CENTRAL VALLEYS
TONIGHT WHERE LENGTHY PRECIP AND WET GROUND SHOULD HELP MOISTEN THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER AS TEMPS COOL AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

FINAL DEFORMATION/SHEAR AXIS ALOFT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT STABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING AND MOISTURE DECREASING. WILL ONLY GO WITH JUST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE
SAN JUANS SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO
SUNNIER SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

A NARROW SWATH OF RIDGING BUILDS AND EXPANDS EAST INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF CALM AND WARMER WEATHER BEFORE
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM THAT HAS GONE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE
AREA UNTIL TUESDAY. THE MID RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE LENGTH OF
TIME THIS WEATHER SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THE GFS KEEPS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT
WHERE THE EC MOVES MOISTURE OUT THE AREA AND RETROGRADES AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPLITTING FROM THE ORIGINAL TROUGH WEST INTO UTAH WITH
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL SOME MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE
PACIFIC ON THURSDAY. WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE RECENT
STORMS HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION...AND THE TROUGHY
LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES...HOWEVER THE LENGTH OF PRECIPITATION
MODELED WITH THE GFS SEEMS TOO STRETCHED OUT IN TIME. THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 953 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NORTH-
FACING SLOPES OF THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. BY MIDDAY SAT...ONLY A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WHERE SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS
OCCUR. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS UNTIL
AROUND 14Z...AND BEY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KEGE/KRIL/KMTJ/KSBS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...EH