Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 222246

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
346 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 346 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

Residual mid and high level moisture rotating on the eastern edge
of the ridge of high pressure has allowed thicker cloud cover to
persist across the northern portion of our forecast area this
afternoon. Cannot rule out some light flurries over the northern
mountains throughout the rest of the day but the rest of the
region will see generally dry and mild conditions. The warming
trend will continue on Thanksgiving as high temperatures climb to
some 10 to 15 degrees above normal under mostly to partly sunny
skies. In fact, some near or record setting temperatures will be
possible. Some of these sites include Grand Junction, Cortez,
Durango, and Blanding whose record highs for November 23 of 62,
64, 60, and 64 degrees, respectively will be close to being met!

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

A shortwave trough in the northwesterly flow will clip the
northern half of the forecast area on Friday and bring a quick
shot of light snow to the northern Colorado mountains throughout
the day. Maybe just a few tenths will fall over the highest peaks
before this wave is ushered out of the region. High pressure will
firmly re-establish itself overhead on Saturday which will allow
for a warm and quiet weekend. High temperatures will remain warm
reaching the low 60s for almost all valley locales.

And now, regarding the arrival of that next upper level trough
during the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. The GFS features a shallower
trough and pushes it through the area starting late Monday
morning with the cold front passing through Monday evening. The
12Z Euro differs significantly and wants to carve a closed low
into a much broader trough that would move through the region
Monday night and continuing through Tuesday. If that solution
panned out, significantly more moisture could move into our
forecast area. However, given how inconsistent the models have
been with this system over the past several runs, confidence
remains low going into the new work week. So for right now,
extended grids are shifting towards cooler and potentially wetter
conditions with some isolated to scattered showers over the higher


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1004 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

Mid level and high clouds will continue pouring over the northern
CO mountains today with isolated mountaintop snow showers
expected, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites
and over the entire area for the next 24 hours.




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