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000
FXUS65 KGJT 262049
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
249 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS IT WRAPS CLOCKWISE
AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SW TO THE SRN
PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE A
LITTLE SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THOSE STORMS THAT DID
WERE DECENT IN STRENGTH PER RADAR. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED GOOD CAPE
PRESENT SO EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE FIRING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS. MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGESTED THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SWRN UT/NWRN AZ
BORDER...WHERE A DECENT CLUSTER OF STORMS WERE LOCATED AT 2PM. SOME
MODELS SHOW THIS SHEARING OUT ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO LATER TODAY FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAINS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND INCH FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH.

THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND
GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY...AS A CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES A COLD FRONT PUSHES UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE
ROCKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP A BIT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MON AND TUE AS AN EASTERLY WAVE ROTATING
UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE NEW MEXICO HIGH MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NOT ONLY
WILL DEEP MOISTURE BE AVAILABLE...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THROUGH THESE TWO DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON TUE AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER
MOVES INTO EASTERN IDAHO DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO TIMED FOR TUE
AFTERNOON...THE NAM PRODUCES A LARGE AREA OF 1+ INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH LOCAL AREAS TOPPING 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF OUR CWA. EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE STRONG...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MORE OF THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS
AVAILABLE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...
AND WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE ON TUE...AND MAYBE MON...WHEN CLOUD COVER/RAIN WILL BE MOST
EXTENSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

DAYTIME HEATING AND SMALL UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING IN FROM SRN UT
WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IS EXPECTED
TO OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS. ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AROUND KVEL AND EXTREME NW CO.

STORMS SHOULD FORM FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS THEN MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST. MONSOON MOISTURE IS RATHER DEEP...AND STORMS MOVING
OVER TAF SITES COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY
MVFR CIGS IN HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA BY 06Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD