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000
FXUS65 KGJT 031630
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
930 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

WE ARE SEEING A LULL THIS MORNING BETWEEN WAVES. AFTER SOME BACK
AND FORTH HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WARNING FOR ZONE 1...FAR
NORTHWEST COLORADO. WHILE SNOW WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT WAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES...DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE LOWERED
POPS THIS MORNING FOR MANY OF THE OTHER VALLEYS. AGAIN EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE ELONGATED TROUGH WAS STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN NE INTO MANITOBA. THE ASSOCIATED JET
EXITED EAST OF THE SAN JUAN MTNS OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH TERRAIN
GUSTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 40MPH RANGE BEFORE SUNRISE. SO BLIZZARD
WARNINGS WERE DROPPED THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH THE LOSS OF JET
SUPPORT AND WITH ONLY WEAK COLD ADVECTION....ONLY LIGHT MAINLY
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL HAD OCCURRED AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. SNOWFALL
OVER THE SE UTAH MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON SO HIGHLIGHTS WERE DROPPED THERE TOO.

THE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WILL PASS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FINAL COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THEN
DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST FRONTAL
FORCING IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL VEER THE FLOW TO NORTH
WHICH WILL FINALLY FAVOR THE NORTH- FACING SLOPES ESPECIALLY IN
THE COLORADO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE -33C COLD CORE BRUSHES THE
PARK RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT DRIES OUT
THE PROFILE AND DIMINISHES SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL WINDS AND CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
ONLY SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
COOLEST AFTERNOON OF THE WEEK WITH AN UNUSUALLY COLD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN STORE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST WED NGT AND
SLOWLY SLIDE INLAND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND EASTERN CO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS TIMED BY
THE GFS TO PASS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO ONLY ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CHANCE
OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY THE WEST COAST
RIDGE WILL HAVE SETTLED OVER THE SWRN U.S. AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AND NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE SECOND SHORT
WAVE WILL PASS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN
CO.

MAX AND MIN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL SUNDAY. THU AND
FRI MORNING LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE 15 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
GRADUAL WARMING BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON MONDAY IT APPEARS THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN A BIT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THE RIDGELINE OFF THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE JET STREAM HAS EXITED EAST WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
TURBULENCE EXPECTED AT OR NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL. MTN
OBSCURATIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE I-70 AND HIGHWAY 550
CORRIDORS. UNTIL 18Z KASE AND KEGE ALONG WITH KTEX...CAN EXPECT
SHSN PRODUCING VIS BLO 5SM AND CIGS BLO 030. A SECOND COLD FRONT
DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE EASTERN
UINTA AND COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL BE MOSTLY OBSCURED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ002-
     009-010-012-017>019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ003>005-013.

UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC/JOE