Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 290923
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL WEAKLY SURGE BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR 0.75 INCH INTO THE
SW CO VALLEYS AND SW SAN JUANS. DEWPOINTS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE MID 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR VIRGA TRANSITIONING INTO RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND MOST
STORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET. STORM MOTION OVER THE SAN JUANS WILL
BE EAST AT 5-10 MPH SO WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20-30MPH
RANGE. TEMPERATURES TODAY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL...SLIGHTLY COOLER
SOUTH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING INTO SE UTAH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS THERE TOO. STORM MOTION
IS VERY LIGHT SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

NOT TOO MANY SURPRISES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH SHOW THE
SUB- TROPICAL HIGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...RETROGRADING WESTWARD TO THE NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY
THIS WEEKEND. BY THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATING THE FLOW
OVER EASTERN NOAM WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW OFF THE LEFT COAST OF
THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN THEN REMAINS STATIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. INITIALLY WHEN THE RIDGE IS MEANDERING WESTWARD MOISTURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF UTAH AND COLORADO WHILE
DRIER AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS FAVORS THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS FOR PRECIPITATION AND GOING
FORECASTS ON TRACK. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY STAND UP AND
ALONG ALONG THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL WRAP MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH AND THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOONAL PATTERN AS THE RIDGE BECOMES SATURATED. THE MODELS SO
TRY AND FOCUS PRECIPITATION AT TIMES DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 BUT THIS MAY
MORE RELATED TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THAN SOMETHING TO HANG A HAT
ON. POPS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOVER NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT AGAIN WILL BE AFFECTED BY PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 923 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INVADE SOUTHERN COLORADO AS MOISTURE WORKS
BACK NORTHWARD. AT THE MOMENT IMPACT TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS LOOK
MINIMAL BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER VFR PREVAILS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
ATTM TO INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION OR THUNDER TO TERMINAL FORECASTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT


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