Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 201730
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1130 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016

The shortrange models appear on track in positioning the low
center along the Oregon coast this morning. Satellite images show
the circulation center over extreme sw Oregon and sliding
gradually east. The jet curved cyclonically from the San
Francisco area over central Nevada then turn more to the north
over western Montana. The tightest gradient was edging toward
western Utah. This wind band will move east today and cause winds
to increase over eastern UT and western CO this afternoon and
evening. The gradient should be tight enough to bring wind
advisory level wind speeds to the lower elevations of SE UT and
extreme NW CO. Gusts to 45 mph are probable. The only factor that
could hamper this will be the band of mid and high cloud the will
advect over the area.

The main wind band is projected over the forecast area Saturday so
believe windy conditions will continue. Cloud cover should thicken
as well so have held off and any wind highlights at this time as
the cloud cover may interfere with vertical mixing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016

Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring
increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern
mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a
storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new
week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft
MSL.

A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016

SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA BUT TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS REACHING 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH 02Z OR SO.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW WITH WINDS POSSIBLY
GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ001.

UT...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ022-027-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGR


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