Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 151048
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 AM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

Little change to forecast thinking with regards to current
highlights as plenty of snow being reported in obs and SNOTELs. A
bit concerned with central mountains as SNOTELs showing hardly any
accumulation there at the moment. Guidance does suggest the snow
should really getting going there from now through much of the day
so there`s still hope. This also coincides with a 150kt jet streak
moving overhead which will provide plenty of uplift for more snow
production through the day. Toyed with putting Durango in an
advisory after some snow fell earlier this morning but satellite
trends suggested snow ending. Webcams around town corroborate
this but would not be surprised to hear of some higher amounts to
the north and east of town. The winner for the southern valleys
will likely be Pagosa Springs eastwards to Wolf Creek Pass.

For much of today, the focus of precipitation will be ahead of the
upper level trough that is currently over eastern Nevada.
Southwesterly to westerly wind flow will continue to favor
southern facing slopes for the most snow accumulations. The base
of the trough will move over the Continental Divide during the
evening hours and cause a shift to more northwesterly flow.
However, without the lift provided by the trough, precipitation
will become more isolated to scattered in nature and more showery.

Those areas not seeing much precipitation will continue to see
broken to overcast skies with clouds lifting and dissipating some
towards the evening hours. This trend will begin over
northeastern Utah and shift into western Colorado later this
afternoon.

On Friday, a few showers will continue over the Elkheads and Park
Range but minimal accumulation expected. More sun than clouds
expected as temperatures return to more normal values.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 AM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

Northwest flow will be in place to start off this extended period
with a few snow showers lingering over the Park Range near the
Wyoming stateline. Dry and warmer weather then slides back into
the entire region on Saturday and looks to persist through the day
on Sunday.

Next system to impact the forecast area arrives Sunday night and
looks to stick around through Tuesday. Models are in better
agreement overall as this cold Pacific trough rolls into the Great
Basin. EC has been deeper and wetter with this system, while the
GFS continues to drag things along our northern zones and is
coming in a bit drier through Tuesday. However, the GFS sends
another shot of energy south along the west coast Tuesday. This
brings flow back around to the southwest and taps into Pacific
moisture with a possible increase in precipitation through
Wednesday. This would be focused across our southwest and central
mountains/valleys. Will wait and see on this and continue to hold
out hope the Monday/Tuesday hangs together.

Temperatures will be up and down with the warmest days expected to
be Saturday and Sunday, with temps backing off Monday through
Wednesday with the cold upper level trough swinging into the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 348 AM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

All TAF sites will see VCSH or -SN to -RA as an upper level trough
moves through today. Ceilings will drop below ILS breakpoints for
many TAFS while MVFR/IFR will also be common thanks to low
visibilities due to precipitation. These conditions will be felt
for much of the day. They should start improving heading towards
00Z this evening though KASE and KEGE may see low ceilings and
visibilities past that.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ002-
     003-005-014-017>019-023.

     Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST tonight for COZ004-009-
     010-012-013.

UT...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGR



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