Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 231648
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1048 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

WIND IS THE BIG CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY WITH A 70 KT JET ALOFT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WHEN VIRGA
AND SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TO 3 G/KG THIS AFTERNOON BUT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE STAYING MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET WHICH MAY BE
INDICATIVE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING HIGH-BASED AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THIS EVENING. DID KEEP MOST OF NW COLORADO IN AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
WELL AS NE UTAH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SAN JUAN MTNS...BUT SOUTH OF THERE WILL VERY LIKELY STAY DRY.
BROAD AREA OF 200+ J/KG OF CAPE COMBINED WITH FORCING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE STRIKES OF LIGHTNING ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW
COLORADO THIS EVENING SO ADDED ISO TSTORMS TO FORECAST.

JET SUPPORT WILL INCREASE TO 90 KT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...CREATING GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT FOR SNOWFALL AT VAIL
PASS...THE FLATTOP MTNS...AND THE PARK AND GORE RANGES. BY NOON
TUESDAY...FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM REACHES NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING A SECOND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESE
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

THE SECOND COLDER PUSH OF AIR...INDICATED BY H7 TEMPS AND
DROPPING THICKNESS VALUES...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP COMMENCES TUESDAY
NIGHT. IN THIS CASE...THE NORTHERN MTNS/FLATTOPS ARE FAVORED AND LOOK
TO SEE SOME SNOWFALL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CENTRAL MTNS.
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW SOME OROGRAPHICS IN THE
PICTURE AIDING IN PRECIP PRODUCTION. SNOW LEVELS OF AROUND 8K FEET
WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
UNSETTLED WX FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW AMTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SEEING A BIT
MORE THAN THAT. ANOTHER SHOT OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED
JET STREAM MOVES ACROSS MT/WY AND CO. THIS ENERGY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP FAVORING THE SAME AREAS. THOSE AREAS NOT SEEING
PRECIP WILL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDS THOUGH ERN UT AND FAR WRN CO WILL
LIKELY SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RIDGING BUILDS IN PROMISING MORE
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS TO THE ENTIRE REGION.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
WEDNESDAY BUT BY THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL START REBOUNDING REACHING
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z
THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
ISOLD TSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTN AT SEVERAL TAF SITES AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. ISOLD HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE AFTER 21Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z MAINLY N OF I-70. THERE IS ONLY A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THESE STORMS NEGATIVELY IMPACTING A TAF SITE. EXPECT
KASE TO EXPERIENCE LLWS TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO AND UT MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOWLEVEL DROPPING
TO BETWEEN 6K AND 7K FEET MSL. MOUNTAINS NORTH OF KASE SHOULD
BECOME LOCALLY OBSCURED IN SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE PLACE SHOWERS IN
VCNTY OF KASE AND KEGE...THOUGH CIG AND VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
THE FRONT AND WEATHER WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY TO THE EAST SO TUE
MORNING SHOULD ONLY SEE REMNANT OROGRAPHIC SNOW HUGGING THE HILLS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...CC



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