Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 162244
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
444 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH A FEW HIGH BASED CLOUDS
STREAMING OVER THE AREA AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
AMPLIFIES OVER UT. THE FIRST HINT OF ANY SHOWERS WILL WAIT UNTIL
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SUB-TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE...AND APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK SAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. LOOK FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/S...WITH A FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHWEST WAVE APPROACHES. THE
SOUTH WILL SEE THE BEST WARMING. FRIDAY SHOULD ALSO BE VERY WARM
WITH HIGHS SURPASSING TODAY/S BY A COUPLE DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH ADVANCES EAST TOWARD
THE GREAT BASIN...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS WAY. THE NAM
AND EC MODELS ARE INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ON SATURDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO DUE TO A VORT MAX AT 500MB. ADDED POPS
TO THE ANIMAS AND SAN JUAN RIVER VALLEYS ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THIS AREA WITH THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE. THE DISTURBANCE WILL ADVANCE NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...BUT AM EXPECTING THE SAN JUAN MTNS TO SQUEEZE OUT MOST
OF THE MOISTURE AND LEAVE A RAINLESS SHADOW ON THE NORTH SIDE.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT NO BIG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

THE NEXT PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US MOVES EAST INTO THE
COLORADO RIVER BASIN. A WEAK MONSOONAL TAP DEVELOPS DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS COMBINED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN US CONNECTING THE GULF MOISTURE SOURCE. IF THIS MONSOONAL
SET UP DOES OCCUR MIDWEEK...TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY COULD
BE QUITE WET AROUND EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE ABOUT 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PWATS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IF
IT MATERIALIZES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
DECREASING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 444 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES
WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME MIDDLE
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVER AREA AT TIMES. VFR WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT



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