Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 190853
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
253 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO MOVE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING
CAUSING SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO PRECIP BEING
REPORTED AT THIS TIME. TODAY WILL BE MORE OF AN INBETWEEN DAY AS
INDUCED RIDGING SETS UP DUE TO AN EXITING DISTURBANCE AND THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. WITH PWATS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...GARDEN
VARIETY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
TODAY...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAIN OVER THE SAN
JUANS. CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH SUNDAY
LOOKING TO BE MORE ACTIVE. WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

60 KT JET MAX EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY A H5 VORT MAX WHICH WILL PASS INTO EASTERN UTAH BY
EARLY EVENING. AN INFLUX OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS SEEN ON
PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS AS WELL. THESE COMBINED FEATURES WILL
BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SKIES WILL CLEAR ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. THE BROAD RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWEST OVER THE WORK WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER COLORADO TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TUESDAY BEING A RELATIVELY DRY DAY AS DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE DESERT SW. THIS
LOOKS TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STARTS STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL ALSO LEND ITSELF TO CAUSING HOT TEMPERATURES WITH
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY AND GETTING
CLOSE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SOME CLOUDINESS MAY KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE
COOLER BUT BEING THIS FAR OUT...AND GUIDANCE TOPPING 100F FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THESE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
IS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT.  PUT VCTS IN TAFS FOR KASE AND KTEX WHILE
CONFIDENCE FOR KEGE REMAINS TOO LOW ATTM. REMAINING AERODROMES
WILL SEE SOME SCTD CU THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THOUGH NO CIGS
EXPECTED.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/TGR
AVIATION...TGR



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