Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 222255
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
455 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS IN THE LOWER VALLEY ZONES WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT WERE ALREADY GUSTING IN THE 30S AND 40S
WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING CRITERIA AT OR JUST ABOVE 45 MPH. FORECAST
IS STILL ON TRACK AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
VALLEYS.  GUSTS IN THE 50S AND 60S HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN IN THE SE
UTAH MOUNTAINS AND AT DOUGLAS PASS SO ADDED THEM TO THE ADVISORY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN NE UTAH MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE
GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHTEST UP HERE.  SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING IN
THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HELPING TO ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN PLACES. THESE
SHOWERS WERE MOSTLY VIRGA BASED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY BUT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE BEING DETECTED.

THIS EVENING...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ANY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  BLOWING
DUST WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING WITH ANY DUST SETTLING AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES.  THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. SHOWERS
AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.  SHOWERS WILL STAY CONFINED TO MAINLY
THE NORTHWEST COLORADO MOUNTAINS.  A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL USHER
IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SOME 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TUESDAYS NEAR RECORD HIGHS.  SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
BY SUNSET AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN.  CLEARING SKIES AND
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS WILL LEAD TO NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
SOME LOWER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING SOME CONCERN FOR ANY
FRUIT TREES AND BUDDING VEGETATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEST COAST TROUGH BUDGES IT
EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING A CALMER AND WARMER PERIOD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS SLOWLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROF. FRIDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR SET UP AS
TODAY BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A TAD FARTHER WEST AND THE
WESTERN SYSTEM WILL STILL BE DIGGING SOUTHWARD. SO FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE WARM AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM BUT WINDS DO NOT LOOK
QUITE AS GUSTY. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS
IN HANDLING THE WESTERN TROF/S PROGRESS INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PUSH THE BULK OF THE QG FORCING
INTO OUR CWA SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WEST...LIFTING IT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. THE TREND FOR THIS LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS BEEN
NORTHWARD BUT FOR NOW STILL BRING A DECENT PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
TO OUR CWA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN BELOW 9000 FEET...BUT SHOULD FALL
TO THE HIGHER VALLEY FLOORS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS H7 TEMPS ARE
COOLING TO AROUND -6. THIS IS WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO TRENDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. STILL MAY BE A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS WANING. WITH THIS TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND A BLOCKY
PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF OUR HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NORMAL OR BELOW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON THE HORIZON
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS WESTERN UTAH. WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 45 KTS AS IT MOVES IN WITH AREAS OF
BLDU RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS. WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL SWING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY FALLING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
MOUNTAIN TOPS BECOMING OBSCURED AT TIMES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE ON A KVEL TO KCNY LINE BY 06Z THIS EVENING AND IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO BY 15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001>003-006-
     011-020-021.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022>025-
     027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MA
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JDC



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