Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 020609
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1209 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE OLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NE AZ WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING AND ECHOES OVER
THE AREA HAVE BEEN WEAK. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DEFORMATION WITH
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WITH DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WITH DOMINATE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN THURSDAY THE NEXT STRONG LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION RELATED PRECIPITATION THU AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE LAS
VEGAS VICINITY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASES AS THE LOW APPROACHES
SO GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS
THE LOW CENTER REACHING SOUTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
OCCLUSION. MORE PRECIP SEEMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW
CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY MIDNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SHOWERS DISSIPATE AFTER 09Z...BUT WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL ILS CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDS NEAR SHOWERS.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE FQTLY OBSCD THRU 03Z. THEN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JDC


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