Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 271142

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
542 AM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Issued at 535 AM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Local observations of water levels at the sag pond at the west
creek landslide have been decreasing over the last few hours while
the public has reported the sound of rushing waters near the land
slide to emergency personnel. Because of these reasons, a flash
flood watch has been issued for the west creek landslide as well
as salt creek road through noon.

The winter weather advisory was cancelled with this update as
observations show some wet roads at this hour. With the sun coming
up shortly, any snow that does fall at higher elevations will melt
on roadways so impacts will be minimal.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 311 AM MDT Fri May 27 2016

A few showers continue this morning due to wraparound flow from
the low that brought the rain and storms yesterday with occasional
snow being reported at the highest elevations. These showers will
weaken as the night progresses but not completely end so you may
see a few raindrops for the morning commute along and south of the
I-70 corridor as well as portions of the San Juans.

While a ridge does build in today, plenty of moisture and daytime
heating will allow another day of showers and storms. Intensity
and coverage will be somewhat less since the area of low pressure, and
forcing it provided, will have shifted well to our east. Like
Thursday, convection should start firing around noon and continue
through sunset with some spotty showers continuing through

Flow becomes more zonal Saturday as a weak wave moves over the
region allowing another afternoon and evening of unsettled
weather. Models paint precip over the highest terrain which looks
good as steering winds are quite weak during this timeframe.
Outside of those areas, partly cloudy skies are expected with
temperatures finally reaching more normal values.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016

The long wave trough will reload along the west coast during the
weekend as the next low pressure disturbance develops over
southern California. The flow over our area will quickly become
southwest again by Sat. This relatively unstable flow will carry
enough moisture to keep afternoon convection in the
forecast, mainly along the mountains.

Models show this low weakening as it gradually tracks east early
in the work week. Also a stronger low center over the Pacific
northwest will shift east. As both of these features head east,
high pressure will develop along the west coast. So continued
mainly mountain convection can be expected each afternoon through
Tue. Then the west coast ridge will strengthen and move into the
Great Basin for warmer and drier conditions midweek and beyond.

Temperatures are expected to be a tad below normal during the
weekend, then right around normal through the first half of the
work week. Temps will then climb to just a tad above normal by
the end of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 311 AM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Mid level clouds continue to hang around this morning with cigs
varying from about 3.5K feet at ASE up to 10K feet at DRO. Cigs
should lift through the morning hours as the low pressure to our
east continues moving in that direction. A few showers will likely
persist though so those TAF sites near and under the showers may see
the lower cigs persist. KASE...KEGE...KTEX...KRIL and KGJT look to
have the best chance for this to occur. vcsh looks safe for those
sites for the next few hours until some clearing occurs. After
18z...more convection is expected though coverage will be less.
Not sold on any one TAF site actually seeing a -tsra on station so
will leave out for now. By 02z...most convection will end though
some stray showers will persist. Even mentioning the convection
and showery precip, still expect mostly vfr conditions today.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Flash Flood Watch until noon MDT today for COZ009.



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