Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 142326

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
426 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 242 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

Essentially a blue bird day across eastern Utah and western
Colorado today as a ridge of high pressure remains amplified over
the western CONUS. Current temperatures are generally 2 to 6
degrees warmer than this time yesterday thanks to the abundance of
sunshine under dry northwesterly flow. An isolated pocket of
colder cloud tops has popped up on GOES-East satellite within the
last hour over the Park Range so cannot rule out some light
flurries throughout the afternoon hours. Otherwise, it`ll be a
quiet evening under mostly clear skies, though mid and high level
clouds will increase over northwestern Colorado as a cold front
dives south along the Front Range. As the previous forecaster
mentioned this will allow for favorable upslope conditions on the
Park and Gore Ranges throughout the day on Monday and result in a
quick shot of snow...generally less than an inch. Isolated
showers will dissipate by midnight Monday night. Temperatures will
cool only slightly north of I-70 on Monday in response to the
tail end of the front while the rest of the forecast area will
remain mild for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

Our forecast area will remain stationed between two separate upper
level troughs by daybreak Tuesday, keeping a narrow ridge of high
pressure amplified overhead. The shortwave disturbance we were
watching to move into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday has
set its sights elsewhere with the latest GFS run taking the bulk
of energy to the north and the Euro deflecting the system south.
The higher terrain may see some isolated showers during this
period but for the most part we will just see some increased
clouds before sunny skies return in response to northwesterly
flow for Thursday.

An impressive and significantly colder upper level low will
elongate off the west coast throughout the day on Thursday.
Southwesterly flow will increase over eastern Utah and western
Colorado on Friday as this system progresses into the Great Basin.
Scattered showers look to arrive Friday evening and become more
widespread Friday night. Precipitation would continue through
Saturday before diminishing Saturday night and Sunday morning as
weak ridging rebuilds over the area. Extended models are in
decent agreement at this time in regards to the track of this
system and the associated cold front through the weekend. Specific
humidities are still on track to increase to 3 to 4 g/kg with the
arrival of this system with 700mb temperatures plunging to the -8
to -14 degrees C range. Before the potential arrival of this
significantly colder airmass, temperatures will remain above
normal through the work week.

To summarize, at this time, next weekend`s storm looks to be the
next best chance for the return of winter weather to our forecast
area and we will have to wait and see if the models can remain in
sync with one another over the coming days.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 426 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

VFR and light wind conditions expected at area TAF sites through
mid morning on Monday. Downslope winds look to pick up some at
KVEL tomorrow afternoon but gusts are expected to remain below 25




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