Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 290415
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1015 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

A QUIET AND COOL EVENING IS IN STORE AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ON FRIDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS AT OR JUST ABOVE ONE HALF
INCH. A VERY WEAK 5H VORT MAX WILL ALSO PASS BY THE REGION IN
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AIDING TO SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

MODELS SHOW THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WESTERN
PROVINCES ON SAT/SAT NIGHT AND INTO SASKATCHEWAN ON SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHERN END OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRUSH OUR FORECAST AREA SAT
NIGHT/SUN. A LEADING COOL FRONT WILL DIP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
BORDER BEGINNING SAT EVENING. THE FRONT THEN STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES AS IT WEAKENS LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...THEN
LIFTING OUT AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. MODELS SHOW THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PICKING UP A SOME MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF MARIE EARLY SAT. BUT THE SOUTHERN TAP WILL BE SHUT OFF
FOR OUR AREA...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY HELP THERE. POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY BE OVER THE NORTH...EXTENDING INTO THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS FARTHER SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DIVIDE.

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND THEN DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE FIRST SPREADS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER STATES...THEN STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
MIDWEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z/FRI. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH 03/SAT. EXPECT LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WITH STORMS
ALONG WITH OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH. TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL


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