Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 232140
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
337 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Best storms this afternoon were moving just right of the mean
0-6km flow and producing small hail. Most storms are expected to
end with sunset but there is still sufficient moisture and
instability for isolated nocturnal storms north of the I-70
corridor.

Friday deeper moisture erodes from west to east through the day
under strengthening SW flow. Most thunderstorms will be limited to
the eastern mountains closer to the Continental Divide. Breezy, hot,
and dry conditions are expected elsewhere raising fire weather
concerns. See fire discussion below.

Friday night the cold front drops south to near the I-70 corridor by
midnight and into northern New Mexico by morning. This ushers in
less-hot and drier air.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The north enjoys a cool down of 5-8 degrees while the south will see
little temperature change. Precipitable water values remain around
0.5 inch over the eastern San Juan mountains that may produce an
isolated thunderstorm or two.

For the new week a broad ridge rebuilds over the Great Basin then
shifts subtly east later in the week. Deep subtropical moisture
begins to pool over the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts approaching
2 inch precip water values by Thursday. This moisture leaks into
the Four Corners beginning Tuesday then deepens to around 1.2
inches by next Thursday. Increasing showers and thunderstorms can
be expected starting Tuesday and favoring the south. But we are
not ready to use the M word yet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions will dominate at all TAF sites. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms may continue overnight mainly north of the I-70
corridor. Friday afternoon...scattered showers and thunderstorms
will favor the mountains of western Colorado especially near the
Continental Divide. There is a 30 percent chance of brief afternoon
storm impacts at KASE KEGE with a 10 percent chance at KRIL KGJT
KMTJ KTEX. Mountain top winds of SW 15-20 kts will produce light
to moderate turbulence, stronger vicinity storms/showers.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

An approaching cold front on Friday will strengthen southwest
gradient winds. This will combine with low afternoon humidities
and critical fuels to produce Red Flag conditions for Colorado
fire zones 200, 202 and 203, from 2 PM to 8 PM. The afternoon
winds are expected to be strongest in the western portions of
those zones. Saturday...winds will decrease somewhat and
humidities will rise due to less hot conditions. So critical fire
weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Hot temperatures will exacerbate the melting of the remaining
high elevation snowpack. Meanwhile, releases from area dams and
management of water diversions will likely add to flow in some
rivers and streams. As a result, waterways across the area will
continue to run high, fast, and cold through the coming weekend.
Stay advised of the latest river forecasts by visiting our website
at weather.gov/gjt.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM MDT Friday for
     COZ200-202-203.

UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Joe
LONG TERM...Joe
AVIATION...EH+Joe
FIRE WEATHER...Joe
HYDROLOGY...TGJT



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