Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 031738
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1038 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING CAUSING CONTINUED SNOWFALL FOR
FAVORED AREAS. SEVERAL NEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE GRAND MESA...PARK AND GORE RANGES...WEST
ELKS...AND EVEN THE SAN JUANS. CONTINUED CLOUD COVER FOR THE MTNS
SHOULD MODERATE TEMPS SOMEWHAT WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
SEE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS BY DAYBREAK TODAY. PREVIOUS SHIFT
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS SO MADE NO CHANGES THERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL LOOKS A GOOD
BET FOR THE MTNS AS CONTINUED OROGRAPHICS AND MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY ALLOWS SNOW TO KEEP GOING. AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN
THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH A FEW SPOTS SEEING SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE AT ALL LEVELS
SO ANOTHER COLD DAY IN STORE AND BY NIGHTFALL...RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD KICK IN CAUSING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN EARLY TONIGHT BUT A MORE
PRONOUNCED WAVE WILL BREAK IT DOWN VERY QUICKLY AS PRECIP LOOKS TO
START NOON THURSDAY OVER ERN UT AND SPREADS ACROSS WRN CO THROUGH
THE DAY. ALL MODELS SLOWED DOWN TROUGH WITH PRECIP STARTING A GOOD
6 TO 12 HRS LATER SO GOT POPS TO MATCH. THIS WILL BE A QUICK
SYSTEM WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO NOT TOO MUCH CONCERN WITH ANOTHER
2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE...AGAIN FAVORING THE CO MTNS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES DOWNSTREAM BY THURSDAY NIGHT...
SNOWFALL THAT FAVORS THE PARK/GORE RANGES WILL BE DECREASING/ENDING
ON FRIDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE WEST
COAST STATES. ONE MORE TROUGH MANAGES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LONG
WAVE RIDGE AXIS AND BRUSHES THE NRN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GFS SHOWS THIS TROUGH DIGGING FARTHER
SOUTH INTO WRN COLORADO...POSSIBLY REACHING THE NWRN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS. THIS DEPICTION APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER FOR NOW AND
WILL GO ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION THAT KEEPS SNOW LIMITED
TO THE NRN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY TROUGH...RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WRN STATES AND KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SURFACE BASED INVERSIONS WILL BE STRONG GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND...BUT EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND. MOUNTAIN TEMPS
WILL RISE FASTER...BUT VALLEYS WILL STAY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS STILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.
THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AROUND 00Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DISSIPATING CIGS. WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...EH


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