Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 230541
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1141 PM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 12Z RUNS DO NOT INDICATE A
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD LAYER SO DO EXPECT WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER...WINDS DID BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS
SO DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AS GUSTS IN THE UPPER 40S ARE STILL NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

CONVECTION WISE...SHOWERS WILL INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY APPEARS
LIMITED CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY WILL DRIVE A FEW OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS INTO THE PARK AND GORE
RANGES IN NORTHERN COLORADO. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THE
COOLER...UNSETTLED TREND RAMPS UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE
NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY. TRACKING OF THIS STORM IN THE
UPPER LEVELS DIFFERS BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE GFS HINTING AT A
SPLITTING LOW AND THE ECMWF TRACKING A MORE AMPLIFIED STORM
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS INDICATE A JET
MAXIMUM OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON SO AM ONCE AGAIN
ANTICIPATING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY DOWN
SOUTH. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. YET ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO MOVE IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK SO THE EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF
PERIODIC SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT. EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH IN
SOME AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO THE WEST WITH THE
FRONTS PASSAGE DURING THE LATE MORNING IN EASTERN UTAH AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN AREAS OF LLWS THROUGH 16Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND VIRGA
WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED WIND GUSTS. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
COLORADO RESULTING IN AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE
RULE. ONCE THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST
COLORADO BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR KCAG...KHDN...
KEEO AND KSBS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

THE GUSTY WINDS THAT OCCURRED TODAY WILL PICK UP AGAIN NEAR NOON
TOMORROW AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS STORM WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO REACH 30 TO 40
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 15% EXCEPT FOR IN
SOUTHEASTERN UT AND SOUTHWESTERN CO. WHILE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY PERIODICALLY BE MET IN UT FIRE ZONE 491 AND CO FIRE
ZONE 207 TOMORROW...DISCUSSIONS WITH LAND MANAGERS REVEALED GREEN-
UP CONTINUES IN THOSE AREAS SO NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. EVEN SO...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMS
LONG TERM...JDC/MMS
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...MMS/TGR



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