Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

000
FXUS65 KGJT 110945
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
345 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE REGION BUT WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS SIGNS OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BUT HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE PROPAGATES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WIND IS EXPECTED TO STAY RELATIVELY CALM TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME
GUSTY WINDS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.

PWATS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 0.40 INCH BY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH
SUGGESTS SHOWERS MAY BE BEGINNING PRETTY EARLY IN DAY AS MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR QUICK SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THE ONE CONCERN
HOWEVER WOULD BE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SATURDAY MORNING
TO ALLOW THE SFC TO HEAT UP AND AID IN CONVECTIVE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. KEPT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS FOR
SATURDAY MORNING AND EXPANDED TO VALLEYS BY THE SUNSET THINKING
THAT BEST FRONTAL FORCING WILL COME SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL
BE THIS SYSTEM/S NEEDED MECHANISM TO ALLOW BANDS OF SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND MAKE IT INTO THE VALLEYS. SEE MORE IN LONG TERM
SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THE TWO TROUGHS COME MORE IN PHASE. THE SOUTHERN
TROUGH APPEARS WILL HAVE ONLY A MINOR MOISTURE TAP STREAMING UP
THROUGH NEW MEXICO. THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL BRING THE BEST
DYNAMICS INTO THE AREA AND BE THE BETTER WEATHER PRODUCER OF THE
TWO. SAT EVENING WILL SEE GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM
ADVECTION. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ALONG THE NORTHERN CO
BORDER SUNDAY MORNING...THEN PUSH STRONGLY DOWN THE FRONT RANGE
SUNDAY...AND MOVE MORE WEAKLY THROUGH WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT AS
WELL. THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE OVER NW CO SUN AFTERNOON WITH
THE GFS 700-500MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UP TO 2.0 G/KG...WITH SPOT OF
3.0 OVER NW CO. THE COLD POOL WILL SLIP DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF CO
SUNDAY WITH THE COOLER AIR MAKING A BIT OF PROGRESS ACROSS WESTERN
CO AND EASTERN UT. SUNDAY EVENING COULD SEE A PERIOD OF GOOD
SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN CO MOUNTAINS. IT IS DURING THIS TIME
THAT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE BETWEEN THE 700 AND 500 MB TROUGHS
WITH NW WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA...COUPLED WITH COLD ADVECTION
AND 700 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -4 TO -8.

THE NORTHERN TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA
WITH MONDAY SHOWING RAPID CLEARING AND A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE NEXT TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO AFFECT THE
AREA WED AND THU...BUT THERE IS GREAT DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL
SOLUTION. IN THE ECMWF THIS TROUGHS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL JUST SKIM
THE NORTHERN BORDER AREA AND THE NORTHERN CO MOUNTAINS...WHILE IN
THE GFS IS HAS A LOT MORE AMPLITUDE AND PLOWS THROUGH UT AND CO AS
A CLOSED LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LAYERED HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC STORM.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.