Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 230405
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1005 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WINDS PICKING BACK UP ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO EASTERN UTAH. LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS WOULD
PUT THE FRONT THROUGH VERNAL AND PRICE AS OF 945 PM MDT AND IT
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT WIND SPEEDS COMING IN CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 40 MPH IN THE VALLEYS TO OVER
60 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE BOOKCLIFFS. DOUGLAS PASS
RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST TO 67 MPH. WITH HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
VIRGA...WOULD EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT
WIND HIGHLIGHTS BY A FEW HOURS FOR POTENTIAL OF 45 TO 60 MPH
GUSTS. TEMPS WILL BE QUICKLY DROPPING OFF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
GOOD 20 DEGREES OF COOLING POSSIBLE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS IN THE GRIDS TO COVER
EXPECTED CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
ARE STILL ANTICIPATED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN UTAH
AND INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. EVENING 00Z RAOB FROM GRAND JUNCTION
INDICATES STRONGER WINDS ABOUT 4000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH THE WIND
ADVISORIES STILL ON TRACK. IN ADDITION...SFC OBS NEAR SALT LAKE
CITY INDICATING WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 MPH WITH THE FRONT. CURRENT
TIMING BRINGS THE FRONT TO A VERNAL TO CANYONLANDS LINE BETWEEN 10
PM AND MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN COLORADO BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS IN THE LOWER VALLEY ZONES WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT WERE ALREADY GUSTING IN THE 30S AND 40S
WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING CRITERIA AT OR JUST ABOVE 45 MPH. FORECAST
IS STILL ON TRACK AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH IN THE EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO
VALLEYS.  GUSTS IN THE 50S AND 60S HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN IN THE SE
UTAH MOUNTAINS AND AT DOUGLAS PASS SO ADDED THEM TO THE ADVISORY.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN NE UTAH MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE
GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHTEST UP HERE.  SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING IN
THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES HELPING TO ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN PLACES. THESE
SHOWERS WERE MOSTLY VIRGA BASED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY BUT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE BEING DETECTED.

THIS EVENING...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ANY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  BLOWING
DUST WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING WITH ANY DUST SETTLING AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES.  THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. SHOWERS
AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.  SHOWERS WILL STAY CONFINED TO MAINLY
THE NORTHWEST COLORADO MOUNTAINS.  A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL USHER
IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SOME 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TUESDAYS NEAR RECORD HIGHS.  SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
BY SUNSET AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN.  CLEARING SKIES AND
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS WILL LEAD TO NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
SOME LOWER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING SOME CONCERN FOR ANY
FRUIT TREES AND BUDDING VEGETATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEST COAST TROUGH BUDGES IT
EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING A CALMER AND WARMER PERIOD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS SLOWLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROF. FRIDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR SET UP AS
TODAY BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A TAD FARTHER WEST AND THE
WESTERN SYSTEM WILL STILL BE DIGGING SOUTHWARD. SO FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE WARM AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM BUT WINDS DO NOT LOOK
QUITE AS GUSTY. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS
IN HANDLING THE WESTERN TROF/S PROGRESS INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PUSH THE BULK OF THE QG FORCING
INTO OUR CWA SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WEST...LIFTING IT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. THE TREND FOR THIS LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS BEEN
NORTHWARD BUT FOR NOW STILL BRING A DECENT PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
TO OUR CWA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN BELOW 9000 FEET...BUT SHOULD FALL
TO THE HIGHER VALLEY FLOORS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS H7 TEMPS ARE
COOLING TO AROUND -6. THIS IS WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO TRENDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. STILL MAY BE A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS WANING. WITH THIS TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND A BLOCKY
PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF OUR HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NORMAL OR BELOW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON THE HORIZON
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BY 10Z WEDNESADY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENHANCE WIND GUSTS WITH
SPEEDS CLOCKING IN OVER 40 KTS IN THE VALLEYS WITH 60 KTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF MODERATE TO SEVERE
TURBULENCE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS CALM DOWN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ001>003-006-011-
     020-021.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ022>025-027>029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...MA
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JDC



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