Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 171745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1145 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 442 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Current satellite indicates the secondary trough pushing across
NE Utah and NW Colorado. A few clouds and sprinkles with this
passing trough, but quite dry below 550 mb as seen in SLC`s 00z
sounding. Upper level moisture associated with this trough will
keep some high clouds across NE Utah and NW Colorado, and the Four
Corners this morning, but skies are anticipated to clear this
afternoon. A couple of isolated mountain showers and thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out this afternoon, but overall atmospheric
conditions will be quite dry. High pressure will amplify over the
region the next couple of days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 442 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

The high pressure which will be overhead in about 24 to 36 hours
is still on track to begin pushing eastward Saturday as a trough
strengthens over the western US. 24 hours ago, the forecast models
were bringing PWATs into the near 1 inch range over the Four
Corners by Sunday evening, but now forecast models indicate PWATs
gradually increasing Saturday afternoon and getting to near 0.75
inch by Sunday night. This is still an increase in moisture and
will bring cloud cover to the Four Corners and northward to the
I-70 corridor. Areas of NE Utah and NW Colorado are more likely to
be clear or partly cloudy on Monday for the eclipse.

A deeper moisture surge is progged to stream into the Four
Corners sometime on Tuesday. NCEP ensemble spaghetti plots
support this pattern shift with members supporting high pressure
centered over Texas by Tuesday and weak troughing across the
western US.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

VFR conditions will be the rule for the next 24 hours. Some clouds
are expected but will be too high to pose any aviation threats or
reach ILS breakpoints. Winds will also be generally light with a
few afternoon gusts up to 20 mph.




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