National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KGJT 112038
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
238 PM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS HOLDING TOGETHER WHEN THEY COME OFF THE HILLS. NO DYNAMIC
MECHANISM TO DRIVE CONVECTION BEYOND THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET WHEN A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS FEATURE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND IS
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FOLLOWED BY STABILIZATION AND CLEARING BY MIDNIGHT. THE
RAP DOESN`T SHOW THIS FEATURE AT ALL...WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TOO
SLOW IN BRINGING IT THROUGH...SO HAVE BASED THE FORECAST ON
EXTRAPOLATING IT THROUGH KGJT BY 03Z.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK DRIER. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND PUSH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EAST. BELIEVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND BE
CONFINED TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR WARM UP TO ABOVE AVERAGE MAX
AND MINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMER THAN NORMAL DAYS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE COULD LEAD TO A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MTNS. A CLOSED LOW SPINS OVER NWRN OLD MEXICO...CUT OFF FROM
THE FLOW.

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NE UT/NW CO BUT NOW DOESN/T LOOK TO REALLY ENTER OUR
FORECAST AREA...SO CONTINUED WARM TEMPS ON TUESDAY. MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE STRONGER W TO SW WINDS MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COMBINED WITH LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY COULD POSE A FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE DIVIDE...WITH THE AREA CAUGHT IN A WEAK
DEFORMATION AREA BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND THE NOW
EJECTING NRN MEXICO CLOSED LOW.

WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND. SOME COOLING IS INDICATED BY LATE IN
THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...BUT GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF SUCH FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.
WILL ACCEPT THE CONSENSUS MODEL AS A RESULT. DRY WEATHER STILL LOOKS
LIKE THE PREVAILING CONDITION AFTER MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY JUST
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ABOUT 04Z OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BENEATH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
A FEW TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS. THESE INCLUDE KEGE
AND KASE. OTHER AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KGUC...KCAG...KHDN...KDRO AND
KPSO WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS. ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING... DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE BE CONFINED TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...CC