Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 282040
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
240 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE CO/NM BORDER FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION THAT ANY SHOWERS
HAVE OCCURRED. WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO OVER
THE SAN JUANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. A
FEW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO FORM OVER SOME OF THE OTHER
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. BUT AT 2 PM THESE ARE VERY SCANT.

OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES HAVE REIGNED TODAY. EXPECT THESE QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT LEAST...WITH THE
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE.

A FAIRLY DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVERHEAD DUE TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO SEEP
INTO THE SAN JUANS AND PAGOSA SPRINGS AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER UP
NORTH WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIEST WITH COOLER TEMPS DOWN SOUTH
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WHERE THEY DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO ELONGATE AND BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN STATES.  MORE MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER REMAINS EAST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS.  PW VALUES INCREASE TO 0.75 INCHES AND GREATER
ACROSS SE UTAH AND SW COLORADO WITH VALUES OF AN INCH AND GREATER
NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THIS MOISTURE ADVECTS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE REGIONS WHILE AREAS NORTH OF I-70 REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS A RESULT SOUTH OF I-70
DUE TO INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.

MOISTURE IS STILL SUFFICIENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  THE 12Z GFS INDICATES THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME MAKING IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE PAST THE
FRONT RANGE. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR ON SUNDAY
WITH PW VALUES 0.5 INCH OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A
DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALSO PUSH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER WESTWARD
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES DEEPENS. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE PUSHED EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR A DRIER DAY
ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL RECENTER AND BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE BEING RECYCLED DAY TO
DAY UNDER THE HIGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO IMPACTS TO
VSBY OR CIGS ANTICIPATED. GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY EXCEED 25
MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ROARING FORK VALLEY AND
COULD IMPACT LANDING TRAFFIC AT KASE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...EH/MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...EH


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