Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 141745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 AM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

Another day, another jet. Today, a portion of the polar front jet
will move in from the northwest and move across northern portions
of the CWA. While the jet will support a weak wave, the only
impacts we`ll see will be some broken to overcast skies north of
I-70 and partly sunny to sunny skies south. A few models were
indicating the chance for a few showers/sprinkles along our
northern border and mountains but like the last wave, the
atmosphere remains very dry so don`t anticipate any precipitation
actually hitting the ground. Winds will be a bit more gusty today
thanks to the jet overhead allowing some stronger winds to mix
down. As has been the case over the last few days, temperatures
will continue to run warm.

For Wednesday, no disturbances or waves to speak of leaving just
a few high, wispy clouds to move over the area. This will be the
calm before the storm as the next system starts to come ashore
along the west coast. Enjoy the day, if possible, as big changes
are coming in terms of precipitation and temperatures from
Thursday into the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

Pattern change will be arriving late Wednesday night and Thursday
as a Pacific system pushing across the Great Basin with long-wave
trough digging across the western states. This will bring a period
of unsettled weather to much of eastern Utah and western Colorado
beginning midday Thursday and persisting through midday Friday.
System packing a decent amount of moisture with specific humidity
values climbing into the 3-4 g/kg range. As flow becomes more WNW,
colder air will move through with H7 temps dropping to -10 to -12
C by midday Friday with coldest values over the northern
mountains. Favorable orographics will come into play with flow
swinging around from southwest to west and northwest, which will
shift focus of accumulating mountain and potentially high valley
snowfall. Heaviest precipitation should be in place Thursday night
and Friday morning with potential travel impacts over most of our
passes in western Colorado. With 140+ kt jet driving this system,
it won`t be sticking around long as it exits the area by Friday
afternoon. High pressure builds back in over the weekend with dry,
but cooler, weather expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1044 AM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

VFR conditions to prevail for the next 24 hours with some
scattered to broken high clouds passing through. Breezy conditions
will occur this afternoon in some areas due to passing disturbance
and jet aloft with some occasional mountain turbulence.




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