Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 271654
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1054 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TUESDAY WAS WELL EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL GLIDE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND PUSH
SOME OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO THE EAST AND NORTH. THE BEST
CLEARING WILL BE THIS MORNING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM APPROACHES THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE WEST.

AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON THURSDAY...GOOD MODELS
SHOW GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND SOME VERTICAL SHEAR SO HAVE ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN AZ AND SOUTHERN UT AT 500 MB WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN UT AND CO BORDERS. THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THU NIGHT AND UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE FOUR
CORNER AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CO FRI MORNING. AS THIS STORM
MOVES OUT TO THE EAST ANOTHER STRONG LOW DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTH
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN FRI NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NV TO NORTH AZ THEN
INTO SOUTHERN UT SUNDAY. IT CONTINUES MORNING NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN UT TO SOUTHERN WY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS ALLOWS
FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING ACTS UPON
THE MOIST AIR MASS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING FROM THE WEST TOWARDS MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MTNS MAY BE OBSCD IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY THU
MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...EH



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