Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 140440

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
940 PM MST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 353 PM MST Tue Feb 13 2018

Rising pressure today has been stabilizing the atmosphere and
ending rain and snow showers across the region today. On the
synoptic scale, lift increases Wednesday as the closed low off of
the coast of California phases in with an approaching Pacific
trough. Southwest flow will advect higher dewpoints into the
region Wednesday as temperatures rise to near and slightly above
normal Wednesday afternoon. A 150 kt upper level jet is set to fly
into the Four Corners from the southwest Wednesday evening,
keeping temperatures across the region warmer throughout the
evening. Showers may begin in the mountains Wednesday evening, but
are not expected to begin accumulating much until after midnight
Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 PM MST Tue Feb 13 2018

Snow showers and snow accumulation rates will really increase
early Thursday as the approaching trough shifts winds from
southwest to westerly. The trough is progged to pass through the
UT/CO border Thursday afternoon, and by Thursday evening drier
stable air is expected to advect in from the northwest. This is
looking like an advisory level winter system for the northern and
central mountains. There is still significant spread across
ensemble members on snow amounts at mid mountain locations (7000
to 9000 ft level), and confidence on our start time of event is
wavering with the forecast models backing off on the time of
precipitation onset.

Travel could become difficult across I-70 and many other highways
crossing high mountain passes Thursday morning through Thursday
evening from light snow amounts, so be prepared for winter driving
conditions on Thursday.

Drier conditions and more seasonable temperatures will be
established over the weekend with the next chance of precipitation
next Monday. There are major model differences on a potential
system early next week, with the euro showing a major winter event
and the GFS teasing the region with it mid week next week. Since
both are indicating a good winter system rolling in.. confidence
is moderate that it`ll get here eventually.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 937 PM MST Tue Feb 13 2018

Isolated rain and snow showers will linger over west central
Colorado through the night with showers ending after sunrise.
Expect areas of mountain obscuration near showers along with local
MVFR CIGS through sunrise, with CIGS breaking through the morning
hours before dropping once again Wednesday afternoon. Another
round of rain and snow will start to move in after 20Z Wednesday
afternoon with widespread showers expected Wednesday night.




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