Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 202226
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
326 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

WEAK TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...THOUGH SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO SE UT. WITH
SOME ECHOES ON THE KGJX RADAR...SOME VIRGA OR ISOLATED LIGHT
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
AS THE TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO NRN CALIF.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ON FRI. MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUAN/ABAJO/LA SAL MTNS
FRI AFTERNOON IN DIFLUENT FLOW NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR FRI AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

NW PACIFIC MOISTURE IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION. ISSUED SOME WINTER WX WATCHES TODAY OVER NW COLORADO TO
COVER THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AREAS FOR HEAVY SNOW ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PASS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
OTHER DETAILS ARE A BIT DIFFERENT TODAY ON THIS STORM...WITH THE
SPEC HUMIDITY FIELDS ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM NOW INDICIATING THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE BEING CONTAINED TO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN MORE
QUICKLY DECREASING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. THE JET MAXIMUM ALSO STAYS A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH YET
H5 VORT FIELDS SUGGEST THE NORTHCENTRAL FAVORED TO STILL BE THE
FAVORED SPOT. MODELS ARE LESS ENTHUSED TODAY TO ALLOW SNOW IN THE
GRAND VALLEY...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TRACE OF SNOW IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH THE NIGHTTIME TIMING OF THE PRECIP.
CONCERNED THE VALLEY WILL BECOME SHADOWED AS WINDS BECOME
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

WE ARE EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING
BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE REACHES WESTERN COLORADO AGAIN ON
MONDAY MORNING DRIVEN BY A JET MAXIMUM. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE MONDAY NIGHT SO THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENDED
PAST THIS TIMEFRAME. THE LONG TERM BLEND DOES REFLECT THE
POTENTIAL OF A STORM BARRELING INTO WESTERN COLORADO FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS IS COMPLETELY OUT OF
PHASE WITH THE EC AND KEEPS DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR THE
HOLIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A STORM NEXT
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO GET EXCITED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH AND SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND SOME VIRGA OR A
ISOLD LIGHT SNOW SHOWER MAY BE NOTED OVER THE HIGHER MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z FRI.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ004-005-009-010-012-013.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR COZ002.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAD



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