Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 221146
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
546 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VERY MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS THIS MORNING WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S. MORNING INVERSIONS WILL SHALLOW AND WEAK AND
SHOULD BREAK QUICKLY. SURFACE WINDS SLOWLY ON THE INCREASE AS
LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED LAYER BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WITH
700 MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...WINDS WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH TOWARDS NORTHWEST
COLORADO. WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIFTING NORTHEAST BEFORE IT
REACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...QG FORCING IS FRAGMENTED AND DELAYED
UNTIL TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SPOTTY AND WITH A
PREFERENCE FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORKS INTO FAR WESTERN COLORADO
IN THE EVENING AND IS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE SUNRISE. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT IS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...FAVORING
CANYONLANDS NE INTO THE ROAN PLATEAU IN THE EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL SW
700MB WINDS OF 45MPH WILL EASILY MIX DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS. ANY
SHOWERS OR VIRGA WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE LOCALIZED BRIEF GUSTS OF
60 MPH OR MORE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAST MOVING AND THEREFORE
MOSTLY LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH BUT DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. UNFORTUNATELY MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED POST FRONTAL. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OF DUST AS THE FRONT PASSES AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

WEDNESDAY...THE SECOND PIECE OF THE TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE NEW AIR MASS IS LIMITED SO
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BREEZY WEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE BACKSIDE JET PASSES AND WINDS ALOFT VEER TO NW.
SEASONABLY STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS SET UP UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZE DAMAGE IN VALLEYS
WHERE FRUIT TREES ARE BLOOMING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL. FLOW ALOFT
BACKS FROM NW TO SW WITH HIGH CLOUDS INVADING FROM THE WEST.

THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH PUNCHES INTO THE FOUR CORNER STATES ON
SATURDAY. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT TO THIS POINT...BUT MODELS
DIVERGE AS THE DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFIED RIDGE BLOCKS THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THIS TROUGH. UPPER LOW MAY SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...BUT THE BACK SIDE OF A POTENTIAL CLOSED
LOW CIRCULATION BRINGS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE TO NW COLORADO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. COOLER WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH
A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WIDESPREAD MECHANICAL TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AFTER 16Z WITH
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS COMMON FOR THE DESERT TAF SITES. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 21Z-05Z. AFT 05Z...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO 25-30 KTS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES NORTHEAST AROUND 02Z AND SWEEPS ACROSS WRN COLORADO
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TONIGHT.

SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AFTER 18Z
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COZ001-002-006-011-020-021.

UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR UTZ022-027-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...PF



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