Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 271655
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1055 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS AN ACCOMPANYING VORT MAX KEEPS SHOWERS AND SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COVERAGE
WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON HOWEVER. AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL START DECREASING BY DAYBREAK THOUGH VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN
HIGH...AROUND AN INCH AND CONTINUING TO DECREASE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL SHIFT
TO THE FRONT RANGE THOUGH AN ISOLD SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED
OUT...MAINLY FAVORING THE COLORADO SPINE.

FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AS GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. A FEW CELLS MAY POP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT MODELS ARE REALLY
BACKING OFF ON COVERAGE AS STABILITY INCREASES THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY REACHING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE DEVELOPS A POSITIVE TILT IN RESPONSE TO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...THE LOW CENTER REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL
PREVENT A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
REGARDLESS...PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO FUEL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DEPICTED A WEAK TROUGH
SWEEPING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING INCREASED MOIST
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FLOW OR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UNTIL AROUND 20Z...AN ENHANCED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO. THE BACK
END OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PASSED KGJT AND WILL STAY EAST
OF A LINE FROM DELTA TO PARACHUTE. BY 20Z...SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE CONVECTIVE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST PREVALENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AT TIMES THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS.
AND MOUNTAINS MAY BE OBSCD AT TIMES. A DOWNTURN IS EXPECTED BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH LITTLE TO NO SHOWERS
PERSISTING AFTER 04Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...EH


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