National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KGJT 121651
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1051 AM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

FUELS HAVE BEEN DRYING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WARM AND WINDY
REGIME AND AS A RESULT THE RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED
INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO. THE MAIN TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN CONTINUES
TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A PASSING WAVE TO THE NORTH TIGHTENS
THE GRADIENT OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AND LOW LEVELS ARE VERY DRY...SO ANY STORMS THAT FORM OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL MOST LIKELY PRODUCE MORE WIND
THAN RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

TODAY...APPEARS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PAUSE IN THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS
OF SEVERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT AND
DRY...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA. FALLING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILT OVER THE AREA. A SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO
SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO HOLD
DOWN VERTICAL MIXING A BIT AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND WITH
READINGS 3 TO 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TUE.

TONIGHT-THURSDAY...ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE DUE WITH LOWS 5-10
DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL BE DUE TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...AND WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES.

ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN ON THU...AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL AGAIN TIGHTEN BETWEEN
THIS SHORTWAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE PARKED TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX TO THE SURFACE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH AND ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE. THE CONTINUED VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES MAY PLAY UPON ANY LINGERING MID TO HIGH BASED
MOISTURE FOR A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. VIRGA
CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. OF COURSE ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE LATE DAY WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE WILL
PASS INTO CENTRAL IDAHO OVERNIGHT...AND INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT WILL BRUSH OUR NORTHERN
EDGE EARLY FRIDAY WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
TIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. THEREFORE GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN MIX TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS ON THU...BUT AGAIN THE
STRONGER WINDS ARE TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL BE JUST A TAD COOLER THAN TONIGHT`S. A
BETTER COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THU AND FRI AFTERNOONS...WITH
HIGHS ON FRI AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTH...AND JUST A
COUPLE DEGREES DIFFERENT OVER THE SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER TRANSITORY RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
RELAX FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
NIGHT AND DAY...WITH HUMIDITY READINGS QUITE LOW...BUT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER THE
RIDGELINE ALOFT PASSES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND A
CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE PACIFIC NW...THE GFS AND EC BEGIN
EDGE WINDS UP A BIT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...VFR LEVELS WILL BE PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ALOFT THROUGH THIS TIME WHICH
WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE NEAR RIDGE-TOP LEVEL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED FOLLOWING TROUGH PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.
EVEN THROUGH MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND...BEING 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNINGS...AS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...VERY DRY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN.

ON THURSDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THAT WILL AGAIN INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND
INCREASE THE SW GRADIENT WINDS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS FAVORING THE COLORADO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NEAR
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT RH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW THROUGH THE
DAY THUS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REOCCUR.

AT THIS TIME...WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL CONCERNS BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
CHANGING CONDITIONS.

A DRY WARM SW FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAIN IS IN SIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS DURING THIS OUR DRIEST
MONTH OF THE YEAR.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS IN SIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS DURING THIS
OUR DRIEST MONTH OF THE YEAR.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ203-290-
     292.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TGJT
SHORT TERM...CC/EH
LONG TERM...CC/EH
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...CC/EH